Tips — Saturday, 19 September 2026

💬 Lamphun Warrior do not score away from home, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won 1 of their last 9 away trips and score less than a goal a game on the road. They have not won any of their last 7 away games. Their games have just over 2 goals in them on average, and only 7 of their last 20 had 3 or more goals. Their last five results are three losses and two ties, so nothing suggests a sudden change. Rasi Salai are new to the top flight and are still finding their feet. They have lost both games since coming up. 8 of their last 10 results came in the second tier, so their scoring record was built against weaker teams. Both clubs are still on zero points after two rounds. Rasi Salai sit 12th and Lamphun are bottom. Two nervous sides with no wins between them usually serve up a careful, low-scoring afternoon. A 1-0 home win is the most likely result, and a game like that suits us well. The warning is real. Rasi Salai's two top-flight games produced 3 goals and then 5 goals, and they let in two or more in each. This is also the first ever meeting between these clubs, so there is no history to lean on. We still expect a quiet game here.

💬 Aston Villa are in a bad way, and that is where this pick starts. They sit 19th with one point from four games, and their squad has been pulled apart. Pau Torres, Amadou Onana and Ian Maatsen are all out, and Leon Goretzka is missing too. Tottenham have not scored a league goal this season. Their four league games read 0-0, 0-0, 0-2 and 0-3. The chances have been there though, and they have stayed tight at the other end, letting in just over a goal a game. Villa can hurt teams when they are fit. They score almost 2 goals a game and have won 6 of their last 14. But they have lost 6 of those 14 as well, and they played a cup tie in midweek on three days' rest. The history here says someone wins. The last 20 meetings produced no ties at all, with Tottenham on 11 wins to Villa's 9. A 1-0 home win looks the likeliest outcome, and that is enough for our pick. The risk is obvious. Tottenham have gone four league games without a goal, and Villa have won four of the last five meetings between them. One more blank afternoon sinks this. We think the goal finally comes here, and a patched-up Villa back line is the reason.

💬 Neither of these teams can score, and that is the case for a quiet afternoon. Cardiff sit 21st with 4 points from 7 games. They have 7 goals in those games and are still looking for a first league win. Charlton are worse in front of goal right now. They have not scored in three league games in a row, a 0-0 with Portsmouth, a 0-0 with QPR and a 0-4 at Stoke. They also have seven players ruled out, including Chalobah, Edwards and Godden, so their attack is patched together. Cardiff have problems of their own. Chambers, Lawlor and Isaak Davies are out, and Rubin Colwill is a doubt with an ankle problem. Cardiff do find a goal at home. All three of their home league games this season were ties in which they let goals in, 1-1 with Wrexham, 2-2 with Sheffield Utd and 1-1 with Stoke. The history matches that pattern. Five of the last eight meetings between these two were ties, and those eight games averaged under 3 goals. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result here, and that keeps us safe. The risk is the Charlton back line. They have let in more than 2 goals a game across their last 7 away trips, including that 0-4 at Stoke and a 1-5 at Tottenham. If Cardiff finally click at home, this can get away from us. We still expect a tight, low-scoring game.

💬 Millwall are down to the bones, and that is why we want West Ham. Millwall have nine players ruled out, including Luongo, Leonard and Doughty, so their midfield has been stripped bare. Lisbie is a doubt on top of that. Millwall score just over a goal a game and let in about the same, and their home form swings hard. Their last three home league games were a 3-0 win over Norwich, a 0-3 loss to Wrexham and a 4-0 win over Bolton. West Ham sit top of the table on 14 points from 7 games with a goal difference of plus 11. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won four of their last five. That is the best attack in the division against a home side missing half a team. The Den will be loud for a first league meeting between these clubs since 2012, and Millwall will get chances. A 2-1 West Ham win still looks the most likely result. Now the caution. West Ham are a different side away from home, with 2 wins, 3 ties and 2 losses on the road, including ties at Watford and Burnley. They also lost 2-3 at home to Fulham in the cup on 15 September, and both teams have had only four days to recover. Soucek is out as well. We are still backing West Ham to win this one.

💬 Pattani are hard to beat at home, and that is exactly what this pick needs. They have not lost in 11 of their last 12 home games. Their start in the top flight has gone well too. They held BG Pathum to a 0-0 and then won 2-1 at Uthai Thani, who now lead the table. Pattani score more than a goal a game and let in just over a goal a game. Prachuap do not travel well at all. They have won 3, tied 4 and lost 5 across their last 12 away trips, and they score less than a goal a game on the road. Those trips include a 0-1 at Rayong and 0-3 at both BG Pathum and Port FC. They are a quiet team in general. Their games have almost 2 goals in them on average, and only 6 of their last 20 had 3 or more goals. A side that keeps games this tight will not blow anyone away. A 1-0 home win is the most likely result, and Pattani only have to avoid a defeat. The honest worry is the level. Pattani came up this summer and 8 of their last 10 results came in the second tier, so their strong record was built against weaker teams. Prachuap let in under a goal a game and can win a tight one with a single moment. We still side with Pattani here.

💬 Osasuna do not win games by much, and right now they barely win at all. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 15 games. They have won just 3 of those 15. Their last three games were all losses and they let in eleven goals, beaten 0-4 at Atletico Madrid, 0-2 at home by Espanyol and 2-5 at Alaves. El Sadar is a tougher place to play them, and there they let in just over a goal a game. Even so, they score under a goal a game at home and come in on three days' rest after Wednesday's trip to Atletico. Rayo travel with more about them. They have won 8 of their last 16 games and lost by 2 or more only twice in that run. Sergio Camello has six goals in six games this season, so they carry a real threat. Two sides low on confidence and short of clear chances should cancel each other out. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, and a tie works nicely for us. Be careful though. Rayo's away record is 3 wins, 1 tie and 4 losses, and they let in more than a goal a game on the road. Isi Palazon and goalkeeper Augusto Batalla are both doubts. We still want Rayo to come away with something.

💬 Chiangrai keep their home games quiet, and that is the whole case here. Across their last nine home games they have scored under a goal a game and let in under a goal a game too. Only 8 of their last 20 games had 3 or more goals in them. Chiangrai are unbeaten this season. They tied 1-1 away at Buriram United and beat Chonburi 1-0 at home, which is exactly the football they play. They sit 7th on four points and look happy grinding out narrow wins. Sisaket are the opposite story. They are newly promoted and have lost both of their top flight games. They went down 0-1 at home to Ayutthaya and 1-3 at Bangkok United, so they sit 15th with no points. Most of their recent record was built in the second tier, so it flatters them at this level. A promoted side usually sits deep on the road, and Chiangrai are patient rather than quick. Both sides come in fresh, with at least a week since their last game. A 1-0 home win is the most likely result, and that suits us well. There is a catch. The only previous meeting between these clubs finished 3-1, and Sisaket let in three at Bangkok United, so this can open up. We still expect a tight, low scoring night.

💬 Bologna cannot score, and that is the heart of this pick. They have one point from four league games and have scored twice in them. Centre forward Artem Dovbyk is out with a muscle injury, so help is not on the way. Bologna have won 4, tied 3 and lost 7 of their last 14 games, and they have won by 2 or more goals only once in that run. They score a goal a game. Torino are not much better, but they do not have to be. They have won 6 of their last 16 games and lost by 2 or more only twice in that time. This pairing has a long history of stalemates. Eight of the last 20 meetings were ties, and those games averaged just over 2 goals. Two of the last five meetings ended 0-0. Bologna are 17th and Torino 15th, so both will take a point and move on. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, and that is a good night for us. The warning is clear. Torino travel poorly, with 2 wins, 1 tie and 4 losses on the road, and they score only a goal a game away from home. They have lost 3 of their last 4. That is a real worry, but Bologna do not have the firepower to punish it, so we are with Torino here.

💬 Udinese games have goals in them, and that is where this pick starts. Their last five matches produced 8, 3, 3, 5 and 2 goals, and their games average almost 3 goals in total. Udinese score more than a goal a game, and they are short of men at the back. Centre back Oumar Solet is out, along with Jesus Arizala and Jakub Piotrowski. That is not a back line built to keep a clean sheet. Cagliari have climbed to 5th on the back of tight wins, 2-1 at Atalanta, 1-0 against Lecce and 1-0 at Parma. Those results have run ahead of the chances they are making, so the luck should turn. They let in just over a goal a game, and 8 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. The history fits too. The last 20 meetings averaged more than 2 goals, and Udinese won the most recent one 2-0. Udinese also want a response after two straight losses, and their own crowd will push them forward. A 2-1 home win is the most likely result, and three goals clears this pick. The catch is Cagliari. They have won 8 of their 16 games by exactly one goal and are missing four attacking players, so they can keep a game quiet. We still want the busier game here.

💬 This game hardly ever stays quiet. The last five meetings produced 2, 4, 4, 5 and 6 goals, and nothing about either side says that stops now. Frankfurt are the main reason. 11 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals, and they have not won at home in this run. They have tied 2 and lost 3 there, letting in almost 3 goals a game in front of their own crowd. Freiburg are the form team in Germany. They sit 2nd with five straight wins and have won 11 of their last 17. They score more than 2 goals a game, and 14 of those 17 games had 3 or more goals. So both teams bring a high scoring habit into a game that already runs open. Frankfurt have to attack because they cannot hold a lead at home. Freiburg are happy to trade chances on the road, where they have won 5 and lost 4 of 9 games. A 1-2 to Freiburg is the most likely single score. We want one more goal than that, and both back lines give up enough for it to arrive. The risk is Freiburg's defending, which has been very tight through the win run. Frankfurt are missing Maluze and Ngankam, and Chaibi is a doubt with illness. We still want the busy game.

💬 Köln do not win by much, and they do not win often. That is the case for Hamburg in one line. Köln have won by 2 or more goals in just 1 of their last 17 games, and they have won only 3 of those 17. They tie more than anyone, with 7 ties in 17, and they have 1 win in 9 on the road. Hamburg look awful on paper. They are bottom with no points and have not scored a league goal this season. Look closer though. Their three losses came against Leipzig, Mainz and Dortmund, who are all top half sides. Köln are a much softer test, and Hamburg meet them at home with six days of rest behind them. Köln give up chances as well. They let in more than 2 goals a game on their travels, so Hamburg should finally get sights of goal. The last 20 meetings are almost even, with Hamburg on 8 wins and Köln on 7. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, and a tie keeps us on the right side. There is real risk in backing a team that has not scored yet. If Köln nick a 1-0, this one is gone, and Hamburg's front line has not looked like scoring. We still think Hamburg stay level here.

💬 Augsburg are simply the better team right now, and that is why we are with them. They sit 4th and have not lost in four games. They have scored 9 goals in three league games, winning 4-1 at Frankfurt and 3-0 at home to Schalke. Over a longer run they have won 7 of their last 15 and score almost 2 goals a game. Bremen are nowhere near that shape. They have lost 7 of their last 14, and 4 of their 6 home games in this run. They are missing five players too, with Agu, N'Diaye, Njinmah, Stage and Topp all out. History leans the same way. Augsburg have won 10 of the last 20 meetings to Bremen's 8, and those games average 3 goals. A 1-2 to Augsburg is the most likely score, and that lands this pick. They have enough up front to get their goal and enough about them to protect a slim lead. The catch is Augsburg's own team news. Mounié, Suso, Breithaupt, Kade, Sakar and Schnitzer are all out, so they are far from full strength. Bremen have scored in four games in a row, so a home point is well within reach. We still side with Augsburg, who look the stronger team even with all those bodies missing.

💬 Gladbach cannot keep the ball out of their own net, and that is where this pick starts. They have let in 12 goals in three league games. They sit 17th with no points and a goal difference of minus nine, beaten 0-5 at Freiburg and 0-3 at Leipzig. Their games average more than 3 goals in total, and 8 of their last 13 had 3 or more. Mainz arrive in better shape. They have won 5 of their last 12, and on the road they have won 4 of 6 games, letting in a goal a game on those trips. Their games are busy too, with 7 of the last 12 producing 3 or more goals. Mainz are without their first choice keeper Robin Zentner as well, so neither back line looks safe. A 1-2 to Mainz is the most likely single score. We want one more goal than that, and this game gives us plenty of ways to get it, because a broken Gladbach defense has to chase. The worry is the history between them. The last five meetings finished 1-1, 1-0, 1-3, 1-1 and 1-1, so these two can play out a quiet game. Gladbach are also missing their main striker Tim Kleindienst, who is banned. We still want the goals here.

💬 Ipswich are the reason we want goals here. Their games have averaged more than 3 goals in total, the busiest of either side, and 10 of their last 14 had 3 or more in them. They have been beaten 5-2 at Manchester United and 4-2 by Arsenal inside the last month, so they leak badly once a game opens up. On the road they let in more than a goal a game. Everton are no wall either. Their games have averaged almost 3 goals in total, and 8 of their last 13 have had 3 or more. They score more than a goal a game at their own ground and have not lost in five. The two meetings on record finished 2-2 and 2-0, an average of 3 goals a game. Everton also played a League Cup tie against Wolves three days ago, so tired legs late on could stretch this further. A 2-1 to Everton is the likely score, and that gets us home. The risk is Everton's habit of tying games. They have tied 6 of their last 13 and three league games in a row, and a flat 1-1 kills this. Ipswich have won 7 of their last 14, so they can control an afternoon rather than trade goals. We still want the busier game here.

💬 These two hardly ever serve up goals when they meet. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals in total, and both sides still play that way. Birmingham keep games quiet. Their matches average under 3 goals, and only 3 of their last 15 produced 4 or more. They score just over a goal a game and let in about the same, and they have tied 6 of 15. Middlesbrough are 3rd, but they are a different team away from home. On their travels they have won 2, tied 3 and lost 4, scoring just over a goal a game. They also come in on four days of rest after a 2-2 with Millwall on 15 September. Birmingham have had a full week. Birmingham are missing Bird, Leonard, Gardner-Hickman and Wright from midfield, and that points to a slow, careful game rather than an open one. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, and that sits comfortably inside this pick. The danger is Boro. They have won the last five meetings between these clubs, and their 4-3 win over Norwich on 12 September shows they can blow a game open. If they score early, Birmingham have to come out and the whole shape changes. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Neither side can score, and that is the whole case here. Burnley have gone 14 games without a win and score under a goal a game. They have tied 7 of those 14, and five of their seven home games have ended level. Eight players are out for them, including Josh Cullen and Jordan Beyer, so the attack gets no help. Derby are worse in front of goal. They have managed a division low six goals in seven league games, and their main striker Patrick Agyemang is out with an Achilles problem. Derby have lost their last three and score just over a goal a game. These two have met 11 times on record, and those games averaged almost 2 goals in total. Fewer than half of them had 3 or more goals, and three of the last five finished 0-0 or 2-1. Burnley have won 7 of those meetings and never lost one. A 1-0 home win is the read, and one goal clears this easily. The worry is Derby's own games. 10 of their last 14 had 3 or more goals in them, so they can be part of a busy afternoon once they get stretched. Burnley have had 3 or more goals in 7 of their last 14 too. We still expect a tight, low scoring game at Turf Moor.

💬 Swansea's defense is the strongest thing on the pitch, and it points this one low. They let in just over a goal a game, the best back line in this match, and they have already tied 0-0 with Wrexham and Sheffield United. Lincoln are nearly as tight. They have won 8 of their last 14, let in just over a goal a game themselves, and ground out 1-0 wins at both Preston and Bristol City. Both sides know how to kill a game off. Swansea's big scoring nights have come against sides in the bottom three, 3-0 at Derby and 3-1 against Burnley. Those heavy numbers say more about the opponent than about Swansea. Lincoln played on Tuesday and have three days less rest, which usually means a slower, scrappier afternoon. There is no history between these two to lean on. A 1-1 is the likely score, and that lands this comfortably. The warning is Lincoln's home form. They have won one of their last four at Sincil Bank and let in almost 2 goals a game there, which is the one place they look ordinary. Swansea have won 4 of their last 7 on the road and score almost 2 goals a game away from home. If that away form turns up, this gets away from us. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 There is almost nothing between these two, and that is why we are taking Blackburn. They have tied 5 of their last 15 games and 3 of their 7 on the road, so a level finish is their normal away result. Blackburn score just over a goal a game away and let in a similar number, which is the profile of a side that keeps things close. Portsmouth have not looked strong at Fratton Park. Their home games are their quietest, with just over a goal a game at each end across seven matches. They have already lost at home to Derby 0-2 and QPR 1-3. Portsmouth have seven players out, including Conor Ogilvie and Freddie Umeh. Blackburn have five missing plus Scott Wharton a doubt, so neither attack arrives at full strength. Blackburn's last trip to a well organised side finished 0-0 at Lincoln. The history helps as well, because Blackburn have won 3 of the last 6 meetings. A 1-1 is the most likely score, and that is exactly the shape Blackburn travel for. The worry is Portsmouth's habit of winning big when they do win. They have won by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 14 games, so a flat Blackburn hour can get punished quickly. We are happy taking Blackburn in a very even game.

💬 Preston arrive second bottom and are the weakest side QPR have hosted so far, and that is where this starts. Preston have lost 10 of their last 13 games and let in more than 2 goals a game. They have been beaten by 2 or more in 5 of those 13 and have won once in five on the road. They also score under a goal a game, so they rarely get a lead to protect. QPR sit sixth for a reason, and it is not their attack. They score under a goal a game as well, but they let in just over one, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. Only 6 of their last 14 had 3 or more goals. That is a side that wins tight games rather than big ones. The last five meetings finished 1-1, 1-1, 2-1, 2-1 and 1-0, so one goal usually decides this one. A 1-0 to QPR is the read, and that is the result we want. The risk is real. QPR have won only one of their last seven at Loftus Road and have tied 6 of their last 14. They are without Ilias Chair, Karamoko Dembele and Tariq Lamptey. Preston have also been playing better than their results lately. We still expect QPR to find the goal that wins it.

💬 Southampton have been in and around high scoring games all season, and that is the main reason we want goals here. 12 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and their matches average just over 3 goals in total. They score just over 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal themselves, so they rarely sit in a quiet 0-0. Wrexham are the weaker side and create very little, scoring just over a goal a game. Their bigger problem is at the back. They let in almost 2 goals a game and are missing Cleworth, Revan and Thomason, with two more doubtful. A patched up back line against the better attack usually leaks. The two meetings between these clubs both went Southampton's way and both were open, finishing 1-5 and 1-2. A 1-2 Southampton win is the shape we expect, with Wrexham hanging in for an hour before the extra quality tells. That gets us home. The worry is the away version of Southampton. On the road they have been much quieter, closer to a goal a game, with plenty of 1-0 and 1-1 finishes. If Wrexham sit deep and keep this dull, one goal each could be all we get. We still think there is enough in this game for the busier afternoon.

💬 Alaves are very hard to beat by more than a goal, and that is the heart of this one. They have lost by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 16 games, so heavy defeats are not their thing. They sit 6th, three points and two places above Athletic, and they travel well, with 2 wins, 3 ties and 2 losses in seven away games. Athletic are the bigger name but they are in poor shape. They have won 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, and both first choice centre backs, Egiluz and Vivian, are out. Their five home games have averaged just over a goal scored and just over a goal let in. This Basque derby has always been close. The last 20 meetings averaged under 2 goals in total, and Alaves have lost only 8 of them. Everything points to another cagey night, and a 1-1 tie is the honest read. That does the job for us. The one real worry is fitness. Alaves have had four days off to Athletic's seven, and this is their third game in ten days, after losing at home to Valencia. They also lose Garces to suspension and M. Rodriguez to an ankle problem, so tired legs late on could cost them. Even so, Alaves staying close is the side we want.

💬 Neither of these teams scores enough to worry a low total, and that is the whole case here. Gil Vicente score just over a goal a game and let in just over a goal, and their matches average just over 2 goals in total. Maritimo are the same story. They also score just over a goal a game, and on their travels they have managed under a goal a game across seven trips. Both sides sit level on 7 points in mid table, and neither has an attack that takes games away from people. Maritimo have lost by 2 or more in only 3 of their last 14. They have not won by that much once, which shows how tight their games are. Gil Vicente are steady rather than strong at Barcelos, with 4 wins, 1 tie and 4 losses there. They even lost 0-1 at home to Academico Viseu this month. A 1-0 home win, decided by one moment, is the likeliest way this goes. That is a quiet afternoon. The warning is Maritimo's recent run. They have lost three in a row, 1-3 at Moreirense, 0-3 at home to Benfica and 1-2 at Arouca, so goals have been flying in at their end. If Gil Vicente score early and Maritimo have to chase, this could open up. We still expect a low scoring game.

💬 Famalicao games barely produce goals, and that is the heart of this pick. Their matches average under 2 goals in total, lower than Nacional's own average of just over 2. They have tied 9 of their last 14, and 5 of their 7 away games ended level. On those trips they score under a goal a game and let in under a goal. They have also not won or lost by 2 or more goals in any of their last 14. They arrive without striker Beney, who is suspended, plus defender Leo Santos, so a team that already scores under a goal a game is even lighter up front. Nacional will not blow the doors off either. They score a goal a game and let in just over one, and only 4 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. They are better in Funchal, with 4 wins and 4 losses in eight there, but the scoring stays low. The last 8 meetings between these two averaged under 3 goals. A 1-1 tie is the likeliest finish, and that is a quiet afternoon in Madeira. The risk is Nacional's defending. They have lost four of their last five and have been giving up good chances all through that run. Nacional have also not tied a home game this season, so someone may well nick it. That suits us fine, as long as it stays tight, and we think it will.

💬 Paris FC have been excellent at home, and that is why we are with them. They have won 5 of 7 at Jean Bouin, scoring more than 2 goals a game there and letting in under a goal. Across all games they have lost just 2 of their last 14, and they have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of them. Strasbourg can score, but they leak badly. They let in almost 2 goals a game, and their matches average more than 3 goals in total, the busiest of any side here. They were beaten 0-4 at Marseille, which shows what happens when a good team gets at them. They also lose forward Panichelli to a knee injury and Godo to a muscle problem, so their attack is short. Paris FC control games and should be able to play on the front foot. A 2-1 home win, with Strasbourg in it until late, is the likeliest reading, and that is exactly the game we are backing. The caution is that Strasbourg travel well. They have 3 wins, 1 tie and 2 losses on the road, and they won 6-2 at Troyes. Paris FC are also missing Mbemba, Otavio and Sangui from a back line that has been their strength. We still want the home side here.

💬 Inter turn almost every game into a shoot out, and that is the main reason we want goals at the Olimpico. Their matches average more than 4 goals in total, and 11 of their last 15 had 3 or more. Their last two league games finished 5-3 and 3-2. They score almost 3 goals a game and let in more than a goal, so they give as much as they get. They are also without Calhanoglu, the man who slows their games down and keeps them calm in midfield. Roma are the other side of this. They have won 11 of their last 15 and score more than 2 goals a game. At the Olimpico they have won six of eight, scoring more than 2 a game and letting in under a goal. Two attacks in this kind of form usually find the net. A 2-1 Roma win is the likeliest finish, and that is the busy game we are after, with Inter dangerous late. The honest worry is history. These two often strangle each other, and three of the last five meetings finished 1-0 or 0-1. Both sides also played five days ago, so a slower, careful first meeting between the top two is possible. We still think the goals are in this one.

💬 Forest do not win big, and that is the case for Coventry here. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 11 games. At home they have been quieter still. They score under a goal a game across their six home games. They did not score at all in three of those, and they won only one. Milenkovic and Savona are out, and Cunha has only just come back into training. Coventry arrive bottom of the table without a goal in four league games. They are missing six players, including Taiwo Awoniyi, who is suspended, and defender Aurele Amenda. That sounds grim, but they have been making chances in their last three games without getting the finish. They have also lost by 2 or more in only 3 of their last 17. These clubs know each other well, and Coventry have won three of the last seven meetings. Expect Coventry to sit deep and make Forest dig for an opening. A 1-0 Forest win is the most likely single score. That is cutting it fine for us, so Coventry have to keep this to one goal. The risk here is real. Coventry have already been beaten 0-5 by Brighton and 0-3 at Arsenal, so a heavy loss is in them. They also come in on three days' rest to Forest's seven. Forest at home have not looked like the side to punish that, so we are happy to back Coventry to stay close.

💬 Dortmund keep finding a way to win, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won their last five games and 11 of their last 15. They have not tied a single game all season. On the road they have won five of their seven away games. They also have the better defending in this game, letting in just over a goal a game. They have not lost by 2 or more in their last 15. Stuttgart are a real test at the MHP Arena. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won five of their seven home games. The problem is who they have left at the back. Zagadou, Jaquez and Assignon are all out, and first choice goalkeeper Dennis Seimen is out for months. Stuttgart have also been giving up more good chances lately than their results suggest. This should be an open afternoon. Stuttgart's games are rarely quiet, with 12 of their last 14 bringing 3 or more goals. The last 20 meetings between these two averaged almost 4 goals. A 1-2 away win is the likeliest score, and that is exactly what we want. The warning is that Stuttgart at home let in only a goal a game. They have also won by 2 or more in 5 of their last 14. Dortmund are also without Emre Can and Lerma in midfield, so control is not guaranteed. We still think Dortmund's run and their extra quality see them through.

💬 Venezia are in trouble and Lazio are simply the better team. Venezia are bottom of Serie A on zero points from four games with a goal difference of -7. They have lost their last five in all competitions. They are also being cut open. Their back line has been giving up chances at an alarming rate across their last four games. Now they must face Lazio with seven players out, including Adorante up front and both Bella-Kotchap and Sverko at the back. Their home record looks decent, but it is built on Serie B wins. In Serie A at the Penzo they have lost 2-4 to Fiorentina and 0-2 to Lecce. Lazio sit fourth and have won three of their last four games. They are not a free scoring side, and against this Venezia they do not need to be. They have also won three of the last four meetings with Venezia. Expect the Penzo to make the first half awkward and Venezia to get on the scoresheet, but a 1-2 away win is the likeliest result. That is exactly what we want here. The one worry is Lazio's own missing men, with Rovella and Patric both out, and a scoring record of just over a goal a game. Even so, Lazio have far too much for a side this short of players and belief.

💬 Angers cannot score at home, and that is the whole case for Troyes. Angers have scored 3 goals in their last 7 home games and have won none of them, with 3 ties and 4 losses. Across all games they score less than a goal a game. This is not a side that blows anyone away either. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 15 games. Troyes have the better attack on paper. They score almost 2 goals a game, though that record is flattered by Ligue 2 games from last season. In Ligue 1 they sit 12th, one place behind Angers, level on four points from four games. Both teams look nervous and neither has much to gain by throwing bodies forward. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, and that is a fine night for us. We are backing Troyes to come away from here without a defeat. The warning is real. Troyes have five players ruled out, including Boura and Gozzi, and their back line was taken apart 2-6 at home by Strasbourg this month. Angers have also won 10 of the last 19 meetings between these two. We still think Angers lack the firepower to punish them, so Troyes are the side we want.

💬 Le Mans do not do quiet games. Their Ligue 1 nights this season have produced four, two, five and four goals, and both of their home games finished 2-2, against Lens and Stade Brestois. They score just over 2 goals a game and they have let in eight in four league games. 7 of their last 13 games have had 3 or more goals. Le Mans are unbeaten at home across six games, so they will come forward here rather than sit in. Lorient are the more careful side. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game, and they travel better than they play at home. Their two away league trips brought a 1-0 win at Lens and a 0-0 at Nice. The last four meetings between these sides averaged just over 3 goals, and Lorient are without Fadiga with two more doubts. A 2-1 home win looks the likeliest result, and that is the kind of open game we are after. The risk is plain. Lorient have already kept clean sheets at Lens and Nice, and if they strangle this one the same way, it can die at 1-0. We still trust a Le Mans side that keeps scoring and keeps letting them in.

💬 Both teams played in Europe in midweek and have had only 3 days to recover. Tired legs point to a controlled game rather than an open one. Lyon have also been hard to score against lately, giving up very little at the back across their last four games. Fonseca made big changes for the trip to Anderlecht, so his first choice players walk into this one fresh. Lyon score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game. Rennes are the form side. They are unbeaten and third, two points clear of Lyon, and they have let in only five goals in four league games. They are not a team that runs away with games either. Rennes have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 13. Lyon are missing Tagliafico. Put it together and a 2-1 to Lyon looks the likeliest result, a game decided by quality rather than chaos. Here is the honest warning. These two have a history of wild nights. The last five meetings produced 6, 4, 5, 3 and 5 goals, and 19 meetings have averaged just over 3 goals. One early goal could drag this into that pattern again. We still back the tired legs and the tighter back lines to keep it in check.

💬 Sevilla rarely get beaten badly, and that is where this pick starts. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 13 games. Games have turned into a grind. Three of their last four finished 1-0, 1-0 and 1-1, and at home they let in 1 goal a game. This season they have beaten Valencia 1-0 and Rayo 2-1 in front of their own crowd. Sevilla score just over a goal a game, so the plan is simple. Sit deep, stay tight and hit on the break. Barcelona are a level above. They lead the league with 18 points from 6 games and a goal difference of plus 22. They score just over 3 goals a game, and their away trips brought 4-2 at Levante and 5-0 at both Valencia and Elche. But they arrive short of bodies. First choice keeper Joan Garcia is out for three weeks with a knee injury. Frenkie de Jong is missing from midfield and Roony Bardghji is out too. That points to a controlled 1-2 away win rather than a rout, and Sevilla should get on the scoresheet. The danger is real. Barcelona have won by 2 or more goals in 10 of their last 14 games, and they put 7 past Racing. Sevilla have to keep this narrow, and we think they will.

💬 Sporting have owned this matchup, and that is where the case begins. They have won 16 of the last 19 meetings with Arouca, including a 6-0 and two 3-0s. Sporting score more than 2 goals a game at home and have lost only twice in their last 16. Their last five read four wins and a tie, with a 3-1 win over Galatasaray among them. They have also put three or more goals past Rio Ave, Alverca and Vitoria SC in this run. Arouca are the opposite kind of team. They have scored once in three away league games this season, a 0-0 at Estoril, a 0-2 at Porto and a 1-0 win at Vitoria SC. On the road they score under a goal a game and let in under a goal a game. Expect them to sit deep at Alvalade and make the first half slow and ugly. Once Sporting get the first goal, Arouca have very little to hurt them on the break. A 2-0 home win looks the most likely result, and we need Sporting to win by two or more. Here is the honest part. Arouca have lost by 2 or more goals only once in their last 15 games, so they are hard to pull apart. Sporting have Champions League games in this window and could rest players. We still back the gap in class to show.