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💬 The last three times these two met, the game finished inside a goal: 1-2, 1-1 and 0-1. That is the pattern we are backing again. Santa Clara are awkward to beat on their own ground. They have won 4, tied 2 and lost 1 at home, letting in less than a goal a game there. Across their last 15 games they have lost by 2 or more goals only once. Benfica are the better team by a distance. They have won 13 of their last 17 and score just over 3 goals a game. But they fly out to the Azores on 4 days' rest after a Europa League night in Cyprus. Santa Clara have had 8 days to get ready. Expect the hosts to sit deep and defend for an hour, with Benfica needing patience before their quality shows. A 1-2 Benfica win looks the most likely result, and Santa Clara staying within a goal is just what this pick needs. There is real danger here. Benfica have won by 2 or more goals in 12 of their last 17 games, so they can put this out of sight. Santa Clara's strong home record also came against mid-table attacks, and Benfica are a clear step up from those. We still think the hosts keep this close.

💬 Goals follow these two around. The last five meetings between them produced 3, 5, 5, 4 and 3 goals. PSG's own last five games have gone 6, 4, 6, 4 and 3. PSG have won five in a row and score more than 2 goals a game. 12 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals in them. They are not solid at the back either, letting in more than a goal a game. Lyon do not shut games down. 10 of their last 14 games also had 3 or more goals, and they score almost 2 goals a game. They are more careful away from home, where they score about a goal a game. Both teams are patched up. PSG are missing Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele, Marquinhos and Nuno Mendes, so the attack is rebuilt and the back line is makeshift. Lyon are without Openda and Ouedraogo. A thrown-together PSG defence helps our case. A 2-1 PSG win is the most likely single result, and that leaves us one goal short. So we need a fourth goal. In a game whose last 20 meetings averaged just over 3 goals, that is a fair ask. Two warnings. Lyon's games have landed on exactly 3 total goals in 7 of their last 14, and that is the result that hurts us most. PSG's replacement front line is also new and unproven. We still want the busier game.

💬 Montpellier games are quiet, and that is the main reason we are here. Their games average 2 goals in total between both sides, and only 5 of their last 15 had 3 or more goals in them. Montpellier are hard to score against. They let in less than a goal a game and have won 7, tied 6 and lost 2 of their last 15. At home they score only just over a goal a game and have tied 3 of their 7 there. None of their last 15 games reached 5 goals. Red Star come in on a strong away run, but it was built against Clermont, Guingamp, Laval and Nantes, who all sit low in the table. Montpellier sit 3rd. Red Star also lost 0-1 at home to Saint-Etienne last time out and barely made a chance. The two previous meetings between these sides both finished 1-1, and neither went past 2 goals. Expect another night of few clear openings, with Montpellier's quality at the Mosson just enough to win it. A 1-0 Montpellier win is the most likely result, and a quiet game like that is exactly what we want. The caution is Red Star's attack. They score more than 2 goals a game on their travels, and 7 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. Montpellier have the defence to shut that down, so we are happy with the low-scoring call.

💬 Sevilla do not win games by much. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 12. At home they have won just 2 of 5 and score a goal a game. Sevilla have also created very little over their last four games. For a side that should be bossing this one, that is a problem. Osasuna are a mess on the road, but they come in off a win and they have taken something from this game before. In the last 20 meetings they have beaten Sevilla 6 times, with 5 ties. This one is nearly always close. The last five meetings produced 3, 1, 1, 2 and 2 goals, and those 20 meetings averaged well under 3 goals a game. Both teams have had 8 days' rest. A 2-1 Sevilla win is the most likely single result. That is a one-goal home win, which is not enough for us, so we need Osasuna to take at least a point here. Here is the honest worry. Osasuna have lost 5 of their last 6 away games and let in more than 3 goals a game on the road. They are also missing Oroz, Del Castillo, Herrando and Bonel. We still back them to keep this tight against a Sevilla side that cannot put teams away.