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💬 Goals follow Kyoto around at home. Their nine home games have averaged more than 3 goals, and they let in 2 a game there. That is where this pick starts. Kyoto sit 15th with five points from six league games and a goal difference of -4. They score just over a goal a game and let in almost 2. They have lost 10 of their last 19 games, and 7 of those defeats were by 2 or more goals, so they do not shut games down. Kashiwa are fourth and score more than a goal a game. They have lost their last two 0-2 and 0-2, but they made the better chances in both games, so the goals should come back soon. The odd part of their season is that they have not tied once in 19 games. Every match they play ends with a winner. Games between these two open up as well. The last 15 meetings averaged more than 3 goals. Our read is a 2-1 Kashiwa win. Three goals in the game is what we are after, and that read gets us there. The catch is that only 6 of those 15 meetings had 3 or more goals, so a couple of wild nights carry that average. Kyoto also won the last meeting 1-0 in June, so they can make this awkward. We still want the goals here.

💬 Nothing separates these two. The last 20 meetings are split 8 wins each with 4 ties, and those games averaged under 3 goals. In a game this even, we want the side getting the head start. Kobe are second and playing well. They have won their last four games. At home they let in only a goal a game across nine matches. They have lost by 2 or more just 3 times in their last 18 games. They are hard to beat properly. Kashima are third and have the better record, with 12 wins in 19 games. They score almost 2 goals a game. They have lost their last two though, 0-1 at home to Urawa and 2-4 at Mito Hollyhock, so they arrive with questions at the back. Both teams have had five days off, so nobody is short of rest. Our read is a 1-1 tie. Kobe need to avoid defeat and that read gives us it, with a Kobe win the bonus on top. The warning sits in this game's own history. It has produced one-sided results in both directions inside four months. Kobe won 5-0 in May and Kashima won 2-0 in June, so a quiet 1-1 is far from guaranteed. We are still happy to take Kobe with a start.

💬 Chiangrai have stopped letting goals in. They have given up one goal in their last six games, with scores of 1-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1. That defense is the reason we expect a quiet night. Buriram are the champions and they have won their last five games. They score almost 2 goals a game and at home they let in under one. They are the better side by a distance and they should control this from the front. Chiangrai travel with a clear plan. They have won 7, tied 7 and lost 6 of their last 20 games. Their games average under 3 goals in total, and they have lost by 2 or more only twice in those 20. They sit deep and make you work for everything. Our read is a 2-0 Buriram win. A controlled home win like that keeps the goals down, which is exactly what we want. The risk is worth saying out loud. Buriram have won 14 of the last 20 meetings and some were big wins, including an 8-1 and an 8-0. Both clubs have also played only one league game this season after a long break, so the form on paper may be out of date. We still trust Chiangrai's defense to keep this one small.

💬 Bangkok United do not win away from home. They have won one of their last eleven away games and tied seven of them. A side that travels like that is there to be beaten. Ratchaburi are a different team at Dragon Solar Park. They have won five of nine there and score more than 2 goals a game at home. They have not lost by 2 or more once in their last 20 games, so even on a bad day they stay in the fight. They also went to Bangkok United and won 4-1 back in April. Bangkok United are solid enough overall, with 7 wins and 8 ties in their last 20 games, and they let in just over a goal a game. The trouble is how they play on the road. They score less than a goal a game away and look happy to take a point rather than chase one. Our read is a 2-1 Ratchaburi win, and that lands this pick. Two things give us pause. Bangkok United have won 12 of the last 20 meetings between these clubs, so the history sits against us. Ratchaburi also lost their opener 1-2 at Ayutthaya and have no points yet. We still back the home side to take this.