Nacional vs Famalicao — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Famalicao games barely produce goals, and that is the heart of this pick. Their matches average under 2 goals in total, lower than Nacional's own average of just over 2. They have tied 9 of their last 14, and 5 of their 7 away games ended level. On those trips they score under a goal a game and let in under a goal. They have also not won or lost by 2 or more goals in any of their last 14. They arrive without striker Beney, who is suspended, plus defender Leo Santos, so a team that already scores under a goal a game is even lighter up front. Nacional will not blow the doors off either. They score a goal a game and let in just over one, and only 4 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. They are better in Funchal, with 4 wins and 4 losses in eight there, but the scoring stays low. The last 8 meetings between these two averaged under 3 goals. A 1-1 tie is the likeliest finish, and that is a quiet afternoon in Madeira. The risk is Nacional's defending. They have lost four of their last five and have been giving up good chances all through that run. Nacional have also not tied a home game this season, so someone may well nick it. That suits us fine, as long as it stays tight, and we think it will.