Birmingham vs Middlesbrough — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: These two hardly ever serve up goals when they meet. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals in total, and both sides still play that way. Birmingham keep games quiet. Their matches average under 3 goals, and only 3 of their last 15 produced 4 or more. They score just over a goal a game and let in about the same, and they have tied 6 of 15. Middlesbrough are 3rd, but they are a different team away from home. On their travels they have won 2, tied 3 and lost 4, scoring just over a goal a game. They also come in on four days of rest after a 2-2 with Millwall on 15 September. Birmingham have had a full week. Birmingham are missing Bird, Leonard, Gardner-Hickman and Wright from midfield, and that points to a slow, careful game rather than an open one. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, and that sits comfortably inside this pick. The danger is Boro. They have won the last five meetings between these clubs, and their 4-3 win over Norwich on 12 September shows they can blow a game open. If they score early, Birmingham have to come out and the whole shape changes. We still want the low scoring game.