Udinese vs Cagliari — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.25: Udinese games have goals in them, and that is where this pick starts. Their last five matches produced 8, 3, 3, 5 and 2 goals, and their games average almost 3 goals in total. Udinese score more than a goal a game, and they are short of men at the back. Centre back Oumar Solet is out, along with Jesus Arizala and Jakub Piotrowski. That is not a back line built to keep a clean sheet. Cagliari have climbed to 5th on the back of tight wins, 2-1 at Atalanta, 1-0 against Lecce and 1-0 at Parma. Those results have run ahead of the chances they are making, so the luck should turn. They let in just over a goal a game, and 8 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. The history fits too. The last 20 meetings averaged more than 2 goals, and Udinese won the most recent one 2-0. Udinese also want a response after two straight losses, and their own crowd will push them forward. A 2-1 home win is the most likely result, and three goals clears this pick. The catch is Cagliari. They have won 8 of their 16 games by exactly one goal and are missing four attacking players, so they can keep a game quiet. We still want the busier game here.