Burnley vs Derby — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Neither side can score, and that is the whole case here. Burnley have gone 14 games without a win and score under a goal a game. They have tied 7 of those 14, and five of their seven home games have ended level. Eight players are out for them, including Josh Cullen and Jordan Beyer, so the attack gets no help. Derby are worse in front of goal. They have managed a division low six goals in seven league games, and their main striker Patrick Agyemang is out with an Achilles problem. Derby have lost their last three and score just over a goal a game. These two have met 11 times on record, and those games averaged almost 2 goals in total. Fewer than half of them had 3 or more goals, and three of the last five finished 0-0 or 2-1. Burnley have won 7 of those meetings and never lost one. A 1-0 home win is the read, and one goal clears this easily. The worry is Derby's own games. 10 of their last 14 had 3 or more goals in them, so they can be part of a busy afternoon once they get stretched. Burnley have had 3 or more goals in 7 of their last 14 too. We still expect a tight, low scoring game at Turf Moor.