Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln — Tips & Analysis

Hamburger SV +0.25: Köln do not win by much, and they do not win often. That is the case for Hamburg in one line. Köln have won by 2 or more goals in just 1 of their last 17 games, and they have won only 3 of those 17. They tie more than anyone, with 7 ties in 17, and they have 1 win in 9 on the road. Hamburg look awful on paper. They are bottom with no points and have not scored a league goal this season. Look closer though. Their three losses came against Leipzig, Mainz and Dortmund, who are all top half sides. Köln are a much softer test, and Hamburg meet them at home with six days of rest behind them. Köln give up chances as well. They let in more than 2 goals a game on their travels, so Hamburg should finally get sights of goal. The last 20 meetings are almost even, with Hamburg on 8 wins and Köln on 7. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, and a tie keeps us on the right side. There is real risk in backing a team that has not scored yet. If Köln nick a 1-0, this one is gone, and Hamburg's front line has not looked like scoring. We still think Hamburg stay level here.