Tips — Friday, 18 September 2026

💬 These two do not score against each other. Their last three meetings finished 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0, which is 1 goal a game. Qatar are the main reason for that. They barely score, getting less than a goal a game, and only 2 of their last 11 games had 3 or more goals in them. Away from home they score even less. They have won 2 of their last 11 and arrive off a 1-4 beating by Korea Republic. Saudi Arabia are the stronger team, but they come in cold. They have not played a competitive game in 249 days, against 3 days for Qatar. They are also using their under 21 squad, two years below the age limit, with no older players called up. Rusty teams start slowly and keep things safe. Nobody is at home here either. The game is in Nagoya on neutral ground, and this result probably decides second place in a three team group. Both sides will look after the ball. A 1-0 Saudi win is the likely finish, and that keeps the total low. The risk is Qatar's soft spell at the back. They let in four against Korea Republic, and 6 of Saudi Arabia's last 13 games had 3 or more goals. One early goal could stretch this open. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Neither of these teams scores much. Ayutthaya have scored less than a goal a game across their last 20, and Uthai Thani are barely better at just under a goal a game. Put two shy attacks together and you get a quiet night. Ayutthaya have started the new season with two wins, a 1-0 at Sisaket United and a 2-1 at home to Ratchaburi, and they sit third. The 1-0 was the quiet one, and the 2-1 was busier than this bet wants. Their home record across the tracked run is 4 wins and 6 losses with no ties, so they scrap through games rather than run away with them. Uthai Thani travel badly and quietly. They have won 5, tied 5 and lost 10 of their last 20, and only 7 of those games had 3 or more goals. On the road they score less than a goal a game. Their games have averaged just over 2 goals in total. A 1-1 is the likely finish here, with each side getting one and neither getting a second. That is the game we are backing. The one worry is the history between them. The last six meetings have averaged 3 goals, and they include a 4-1 and a 2-3. If this one opens up early it can get away from us. Across the full 20-game run both attacks still average under a goal a game, and that is the shape we are backing.

💬 Wolfsburg are simply the better team here, and that gap is the reason we are on them. They sit 5th with 8 points from 5 games. Darmstadt are 16th, close to the drop, with 4 points and four more goals let in than scored. Wolfsburg score more than a goal a game and have won 4, tied 6 and lost 6 of their last 16. Darmstadt score just over a goal a game and let in almost 2. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 15 games. Both of their league away trips this season ended with no goal, 0-3 at Kaiserslautern and 0-1 at Dynamo Dresden. Wolfsburg have also won 4 of the last 7 meetings between these two. Expect Darmstadt to sit deep and counter, with Wolfsburg holding the ball and taking the lead. A 2-1 home win looks the most likely score, so we want Wolfsburg to push on and make the win a clear one. The home record is the worry. Wolfsburg have not won any of their last seven home games, a run of 4 ties and 3 losses. Their two home games in this league finished 4-4 with Cottbus and 0-0 with Kaiserslautern. They have won by 2 or more only twice in their last 16, so a wide win is far from certain. We still want Wolfsburg here.

💬 This game has a long history of staying quiet. The last 20 meetings between these two have averaged just over 2 goals, and the last five read 1-1, 2-2, 0-2, 0-0 and 0-0. Groningen are the better side and have lost only twice in seven at the Euroborg. They score almost 2 goals a game, but they are missing five players in Brandis, Hernes, Jeng, Mercera and Metu. That is not the shape of a team who blow a game wide open. Zwolle are the problem in reverse. They sit 16th with a goal difference of minus 11 and were beaten 0-7 at home by Feyenoord last time out. They score 1 goal a game and have won only one of their seven away trips. A side who barely score, against a home side short of bodies, points to a controlled night rather than a shootout. A 2-1 Groningen win is the likely finish, and that keeps the total where we want it. The warning is a real one. Groningen's own games have been busy, with 10 of their last 14 producing 3 or more goals. Zwolle also let in almost 3 goals a game on the road. One extra goal turns this from a winner into a loser. The history between these two still wins the argument, so we want the quieter game.

💬 Cordoba have the better recent record and the better recent history here. They have won 7 of their last 14 games, and four of the last five meetings ended in a Cordoba win or a tie. Albacete are the bigger worry. They sit 21st with one point from five league games and have scored one goal or fewer in each of their last five. Those results read 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-2 and 1-2, so the goals are simply not coming. They also let in almost 2 goals a game at home and are without Javi Villar and Pacheco. Cordoba are far from perfect themselves. They have let in 12 goals across their last five games with no clean sheet, and they lost 0-2 and 1-3 at home in that run. What they do have is a forward line that keeps producing on the road, where they score almost 2 goals a game. Put a side who cannot score against a side who cannot defend and a 1-1 is the natural finish. Cordoba have a head start here and do not need to win the game, which suits a nervous night between two teams in the bottom places. The risk is obvious. Cordoba defend badly enough that Albacete could nick this at home, and one mistake would do it. We are on Cordoba, just without getting carried away.

💬 Galway have already proved they can handle this game. They have won two of the three meetings with Derry this season and tied the other. They are also unbeaten in their last four away games, with three wins and a tie. In their last nine away games they have won 4, tied 3 and lost 2. They let in more than a goal a game on their travels, which is the number that matters most here. Derry are dangerous at the Brandywell, where they score more than 2 goals a game. They are not a side who win by a distance, though. They have won by 2 or more in only 5 of their last 20 games. The head to head backs that up. These two have averaged just over 2 goals across their last 11 meetings, and the last five read 1-2, 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 and 1-1. Every one of those was close. A 1-1 looks the likely finish again, and a tight game is all Galway need for this to land. Two warnings come with it. Galway have scored three and two in their last two games from very few chances, so a quiet night in front of goal is due. Derry's recent games have also been wild, with 4, 1, 6, 6 and 8 total goals in their last five. We still want Galway with the start.

💬 Sassuolo have not won a game on the road in their last six trips, and they arrive here missing seven players. Kone has a broken leg, and Volpato, Paz, Boloca, Idzes, Cande and Pieragnolo are all out too. Away from home they score less than a goal a game. That is not a side who will take this off Monza. Monza are having a rough start, with one point from four league games and 18th place to show for it. They still score almost 2 goals a game, and they have not lost to Sassuolo in the last five meetings, winning 3 and tying 2. Those games stayed quiet, averaging just over 2 goals in total. This is a matchup Monza handle rather than one they blow open. The likely finish is a 2-1 Monza win. They get in front, then make it uncomfortable for themselves late, because they have let in goals in every league game so far. A narrow home win is exactly the shape we want. Be careful, though. Monza have let in 3 or more in three of those four league games, including a 4 against Inter, and they are without Pessina, Toure and Ziolkowski. A slow start could leave them chasing. We are still with Monza to come out on the right side of a tight one.

💬 Lens have been the better team this season, and their recent run says it louder than the table does. They have won 10 of their last 17 games and let in just over a goal a game. On the road they have won 3, tied 3 and lost only 1, scoring more than 2 goals a game on those trips. Monaco have been winning without playing well. They beat PSG 2-1 and Marseille 2-0, but they created very little in their last four games. Lens made more than double the chances over the same stretch. That gap tends to show up in the end. Monaco are short of bodies too. They are missing five players in Coulibaly, Fati, Idumbo, Soubeir and Teze, with Balogun and Minamino both doubtful, so their attack is thinner than usual. These two rarely play out quiet games. The last 20 meetings have averaged more than 3 goals, and recent scores read 3-2, 1-4, 0-4, 1-1 and 3-2. Open, stretched games suit the side making more chances. A 1-2 to Lens is the likely finish, and Lens do not even need to win for this one to land. The catch is Monaco's 8 wins from their last 14 games and a run of four without a loss. Lens have had only five days since their last game, and that came three days after an away trip to Prague. Lens are still the side we want.

💬 These two do not give each other much. The last 20 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals, and only about a third of them had 3 or more. Three of the last five finished 0-0, 1-1 and 2-1. Bohemians are the reason for that at Dalymount Park. They have won 6 of their last nine there and let in a goal a game, so they control games rather than trade punches. They have also had 7 days since their last game, against 4 for Drogheda, so expect the home side to set the pace. Drogheda are not built to break that up. They score just over a goal a game on the road and sit 9th with a goal difference of minus 12. Their last two wins came 2-1 at Shelbourne and 2-0 against Sligo Rovers, both small totals. A tired away side that scores in ones is not the profile of a busy night. A 2-0 Bohemians win is the likely finish, and that keeps the total comfortably low. The warning is real, though. Bohemians score almost 2 goals a game and 12 of their last 20 games had 3 or more. If Drogheda take an early lead and Bohemians have to chase, this opens up quickly. The history between these two still points the other way, so we want the quieter night.

💬 This game does not produce big margins. The last five meetings finished 2-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 and 1-0, every one of them inside two goals. Rovers are also in a rut in front of goal. They have gone five games without a win and scored four goals in that whole run. Those results were 0-2 at St Patrick's, 0-0 against Shelbourne, 3-3 at Derry, 0-1 and 1-1 against KuPS. They have won by 2 or more in only 5 of their last 19 games. Waterford are the opposite kind of team right now. They are unbeaten in five, including a 2-0 win away at league leaders St Patrick's. They score almost 2 goals a game and have lost by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 20. A side this hard to beat by a wide margin suits a head start. The rest gap runs the other way. Rovers have had 7 days off, and Waterford played Derry City on 14 September, so they come in on 4. A 1-0 Rovers win is the likely finish. Waterford need to stay within a goal, and that is what these games keep delivering. The warning is a big one. Rovers have won 17 of the last 20 meetings, and at Tallaght they score more than 2 goals a game and have not lost in their last nine. We still want Waterford with the start.

💬 Chelsea cannot keep a clean sheet right now. They have let in two or more in all four of their league games. Those read 2-2 against Hull, 1-2 at Arsenal, 4-3 against Brighton and 3-2 at Fulham. They score plenty themselves, so their games keep getting stretched. Chelsea score almost 2 goals a game and let in almost 2, and 9 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. Brentford play their part in that. Their games have averaged just over 3 goals, with 12 of their last 18 producing 3 or more, and they score almost 2 a game. The problem is at the back, where they are missing both first choice centre backs in Collins and van den Berg, along with Jensen, Dasilva and Furo. A patched up back line against this Chelsea attack is asking for trouble. There is a tiredness angle too. Brentford played at Reading on 15 September and have had 3 days off, against 6 for Chelsea. Legs go late in games like that, and late goals follow. A 2-2 is the likely finish, an open London night that neither side closes out. That clears what we need with room to spare. The catch is that Brentford let in only a goal a game at home. These two have also tied 5 of their 14 meetings, one of them a 0-0. We still want the goals.

💬 Bristol City are not scoring at home. They have won only 2 of their last six at Ashton Gate and score a goal a game there. They come into this three days after losing 0-1 at home to Lincoln, with a 1-4 at Southampton before that. Watford have had 6 days off. A flat home side on short rest does not run away with games. Watford travel badly, but they travel quietly. Their last three away league games finished 0-1 at West Brom, 0-2 at Swansea and 1-1 at Wrexham, five goals across the three. They also have eight points from seven games this season with a goal difference of minus 2. That is a much better side than their longer record suggests. The history fits the same picture, with 7 ties in the last 19 meetings between these two. A 1-1 is the likely finish. Watford have a head start here and do not have to win the game, which suits a night when neither attack looks trustworthy. Now the honest part. Watford are missing Bove, Bola, Baah, Boadu and Akomeah, with three more doubtful, and most of those are defenders. They have also lost by 2 or more in 7 of their last 16 games. If City finally click at home, this gets ugly fast. We are still taking Watford and the start.

💬 Espanyol have lost their attack for this one. Puado is out with a knee problem, Kike Garcia with a hamstring, Jofre with a groin, and El Hilali is suspended after his red card at Rayo. That is a lot of the forward line gone. Espanyol were already quiet at home, scoring just over a goal a game there and letting in less than one. Only 1 of their last 14 games has produced more than three goals, and they have won 4, tied 3 and lost 7 in that run. This is a side that grinds out low scores, not one that wins big. Elche sit bottom, but the table flatters nobody here. Their six league games came against Real Madrid, Barcelona, Real Sociedad, Athletic Club, Racing Santander and Deportivo. They came away with ties at Athletic and at Deportivo. On the road they keep things close, and they have lost by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 15 games. The meetings back that up, with 5 ties in the last 12. A 1-1 is the likely finish, and Elche have a head start on top of that. The risk is that Elche have been opened up lately, including three let in at Racing Santander. A hurting Espanyol side at home could take that apart. We will still take Elche to stay close.