Tips — Sunday, 20 September 2026

💬 These two have never given each other any room, and that is the case for a low-scoring game. Their last four meetings produced five goals in total, and not one of them had more than 2 goals: 0-2, 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0. Korea DPR are built on their defence. They have won 8 and lost 4 of their last 14 games, and they let in under a goal a game. Only 5 of those 14 games had 3 or more goals. UAE look like the bigger scoring threat, but that is mostly a home thing. They score just over 3 goals a game at their own ground. Away from it they score more than a goal a game. This one is on neutral ground in Kariya, so that second number is the one that counts. Both teams lost their opening game and sit bottom of the group with nothing on the board. That points to a nervy game where neither side wants to make the first mistake. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish here, and that is exactly what we want. The danger is what both teams need. A side chasing a goal late can open a game up fast, and two teams going for a winner would change the shape of this completely. We are still happy to back the quiet game.

💬 Both of these teams have gone quiet in front of goal, and that is why we want a low-scoring game in Florence. Fiorentina score more than a goal a game and sit 16th after a rough opening month. Napoli score more than a goal a game too, and they let in under a goal a game. Only 6 of Napoli's last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. Napoli also arrive with six players out, including McTominay, Giovane and Alisson Santos, plus doubts over Anguissa and Spinazzola. A side missing that many bodies usually travels to keep the game small. Fiorentina have won their last two, 4-2 at Venezia and 3-0 against Pisa, but those came against much weaker teams than this one. They have won 5, tied 4 and lost 4 of their last 13 games and let in more than a goal a game. Napoli have had 7 days to prepare, Fiorentina 5. A 1-1 looks like the likeliest finish, and that is exactly what we want. There is real danger here. These two have averaged 3 goals a game across their last 20 meetings, and the last three all finished 1-2 or 1-3 to Napoli. Napoli are also without both first choice centre backs and their keeper, so goals could come. We still lean to the quiet game.

💬 These two have a long history of open games, and that is the main reason we want goals here. Their last 19 meetings have averaged just over 3 goals, including a 4-2 for Chonburi in November 2025 and a 0-5 for Buriram in March 2026. Chonburi have won 9, tied 3 and lost 8 of their last 20 games. Ten of those 20 had 3 goals or more, and they let in more than a goal a game. They are 15th with no points from two games, so they cannot sit back and play for a tie. Buriram are the stronger team and they carry the bigger threat. They have won 10 of their last 19 and they score almost 2 goals a game. Twelve of those 19 games had 3 goals or more. On the road they have won 5 of nine and score almost 2 a game there too. Buriram are 5 days on from a 1-1 tie in Malaysia against Johor Darul Takzim, with Chonburi on 7 days, so legs may be heavy at the back. A 1-2 to Buriram is the honest read, and we want this one to go past that. The worry is a controlled Buriram evening. Chonburi lost 0-1 at Chiangrai this season, so they can go quiet for long spells. Even so, both teams let in more than a goal a game, and we are backing the busier game.

💬 Port are the best travelling team in this league right now, and Sukhothai are bottom with nothing. That gap is the whole case. Port have won 8 of their eleven away games, tying two and losing one. On the road they score 2 goals a game and let in less than one. Across their last 20 games they have won 14, and they have not lost by 2 or more goals once. Sukhothai are in real trouble. They have won 3 and lost 13 of their last 20, they score under a goal a game and they have no points on the board. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals in 7 of those 20 games. Sukhothai are tougher at their own ground, with 2 wins and 3 ties in seven there. They still let in more than a goal a game at home. Scoring against a Port back line that lets in less than a goal on the road is a different job again. Port lost 1-2 to Vissel Kobe on 16 September, so they come in on 4 days off to Sukhothai's 7. A 0-2 Port win is the likeliest finish, and a two goal win is enough for us. The worry is that Port may change players after that trip, and Sukhothai beat them 1-0 in August 2025. We still back Port to be far too good.

💬 Getafe are the stronger side here, and this looks like a game they win narrowly. Malaga sit bottom of La Liga on three points, having let in eight more goals than they have scored. They have managed three goals in six league games. Their away trips so far read 1-1 at Celta, 0-4 at Real Madrid and 0-2 at Atletico Madrid. Getafe are hardly free scoring themselves. They score under a goal a game and their matches average just under 2 goals in total. What they do have is a stubborn, awkward home ground. Getafe have won 4 and tied 2 of their 8 games at the Coliseum, letting in one goal a game there. One scrappy goal should be enough to decide it. The problem is finding it. Uche, Juanmi and Kiko Femenia are all out and Borja Mayoral is doubtful, so most of their attacking options are missing. Mario Martin is suspended on top of that. A 1-0 home win is the likeliest finish, and that suits this pick. The risk is real. Getafe have lost 7 of the last 14 meetings with Malaga, so this is closer than the table says. With the Getafe attack this thin, a 0-0 is always live. We still want the home side.

💬 These two rarely give us many goals, and that is the heart of this pick. Their last 20 meetings have averaged under 3 goals in total. Both teams are built the same way. They keep it tight, control the middle and take few risks. Bangkok United have tied 8 of their last 20 games, more than they have won. They score more than a goal a game and let in the same, and only 8 of those 20 games had 3 goals or more. At their own ground they are better, with 5 wins in eight and almost 2 goals a game there. BG Pathum have not lost in eight away games, winning 3 and tying 5. They let in next to nothing on those trips and score 1 goal a game away from home. Only 7 of their last 17 games had 3 goals or more. BG Pathum are 3 days back from a trip to Singapore in the Champions League Two, so expect a slow, careful start from them. Bangkok United have had 9 days to get ready. A 1-0 to Bangkok United is the likeliest finish here, and that is a comfortable result for this bet. The one worry is that Bangkok United score almost 2 goals a game at home. An early goal would force BG Pathum forward and could open this up. We still expect a tight, low-scoring night.

💬 Three goals or fewer is the likely shape of this game. Frosinone have been tough at the Stirpe, losing one of eight there and letting in less than a goal a game at home. Ten of their last 15 games in all finished with 3 goals or fewer. Como are the better side and arrive on a four game winning run, but their games are not wild either. Ten of Como's last 17 also came in at 3 goals or fewer. On the road they score almost 2 a game and let in just over 1. Put that together and a 1-2 Como win is the likeliest finish. Frosinone get on the scoresheet, Como carry the extra quality, and the total stays where we want it. The old meetings between these clubs averaged under 3 goals too, though most of them are years old and from a lower division. The danger is Como in full flow. They have won 4-1 at Genoa and 4-1 against RB Leipzig this month, so they can put a game to bed early and keep pushing. If Frosinone chase a game they are losing, this can open up quickly. We still expect a controlled evening and a quiet score.

💬 Neither of these teams can score, and that is the simple case for a quiet game. Parma have not scored in three of their last five, losing 0-2 to Cremonese, 0-2 to Juventus and 0-1 to Cagliari. They score under a goal a game and their games produce almost 2 goals in total. Only 2 of Parma's last 15 games had 3 or more goals. Genoa are no better in front of goal. They have managed two goals in their last six away trips, and they score under a goal a game overall. Vasquez is suspended after a red card, and Havel and Venturino are both out, so there is even less to work with. The meetings between them say the same thing. The last two league games here finished 0-0, and fewer than half of the last 20 meetings produced 3 goals or more. Both sides sit near the bottom on one point from four league games, and neither wants to be the team caught out. Expect long spells of sideways passing and a crowded middle third. A 0-0 is the likeliest finish, and a 1-0 either way works just as well for us. The risk is that Parma have been letting teams create more chances than their record shows. A first win is also on offer, so one of them may throw bodies forward late. We still want the quiet game.

💬 This one has tight written all over it, and that is what our pick is built on. Auxerre have been solid at home, with four wins from six there and less than a goal a game let in. Brest have won just 2 of their last 14. They have tied three of their last five, 2-2 with Toulouse, 2-2 at Le Mans and 1-1 with Angers. Away from home they score under a goal a game across seven trips. They have also won by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 14 games, so a heavy Auxerre defeat would be a shock. The history says the same thing. The last 20 meetings between these two have averaged under 2 goals, and seven of them finished level. Expect another quiet night that ends 1-1. The honest worry is that Auxerre have been getting away with it. They have been outplayed in most of their recent games and still picked up points, and that does not last forever. They are short of bodies too, with Diousse, Okoh, Senaya and Siwe all out. Even so, Brest have not shown enough on the road to win this comfortably, and Auxerre are hard to beat at home. We are happy on the Auxerre side of this one.

💬 Bournemouth have been really hard to beat at the Vitality, and that is the heart of this pick. They have not lost in seven home games there, winning two and tying five. Across their last 15 games in all, they have not lost by 2 or more goals once. Liverpool are not winning games the way their name suggests. They have been tying them instead, 2-2 with Newcastle, 2-2 with Nottingham Forest and a 0-0 at home to Fulham. Both attacks are short of bodies. Liverpool are without Ekitike and Chiesa, and Bournemouth are missing Adli, Kroupi and Araujo. Two patched up forward lines point to a cagey afternoon rather than a big Liverpool win. Bournemouth let in just over a goal a game as well, so chances are not easy to come by against them. A 1-1 looks the likeliest finish, and a share of the points suits us fine. The worries are history and tired legs. Liverpool have won 16 of the last 20 meetings with Bournemouth, so this record is very one sided. Bournemouth also played in Spain on Thursday and have three days off to Liverpool's five, which could tell in the closing stages. We still like Bournemouth to stay in this game and take something from it.

💬 Leeds have been a different side at Elland Road, and Palace arrive in poor shape for this trip. Leeds have won 4 and tied 1 of their 5 home games, scoring more than 2 a game and letting in less than one. They beat Newcastle 4-1 there last time out. Palace have been weak on their travels, winning only 1 of 6 away games. They score under a goal a game on the road and let in 2 a game. The team news makes it worse for them. Jean-Philippe Mateta is out with a hamstring problem until around 11 October, and he was their top scorer last season with 12 goals. Disasi is suspended and Henderson is injured. Palace also played in Europe on Thursday and have three days off to Leeds' six, so tired legs are a real worry. A 2-0 Leeds win is the likeliest finish, and that is exactly what this pick wants. Palace are not finished, though. They scored three at Fulham and four against Lech Poznan this month, so there is still a threat here. Leeds have only five home games behind those numbers as well, and they are missing Rodon and Wilson. We are still happy taking Leeds to win this one.

💬 City keep winning, but they keep winning small, and that is the whole case for Sunderland here. City have won by 2 or more goals in only 6 of their last 17 games, and seven of their wins came by exactly one goal. They score just over 2 goals a game and let in under a goal a game, so they are clearly the better team. They are also short of their two quickest wide men. Foden is suspended and Doku is doubtful with a calf problem, so the runners who usually pull a deep defence apart are missing. City played a cup tie on 17 September and have had 3 days since their last game. Sunderland are built for this kind of night. They have kept three clean sheets in their last five, winning 1-0 against AZ Alkmaar, Hull City and Fulham. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 17. Diarra and Mundle are out and Mandava is suspended, so they will sit deep and dig in. The likeliest single score is a 2-0 to City, and we should be honest, that is not enough for us. We need Sunderland to lose by no more than one, or take something. The worry is the history. City have won 11 of the last 18 meetings and those games averaged just over 3 goals. Sunderland's clean sheets keep us on their side.

💬 These two cannot stop scoring against each other. Each of the last five meetings produced at least four goals, 4-1, 3-1, 2-2, 2-3 and 3-2, and the last 20 meetings averaged just over 3 goals. Leverkusen do their bit for that every week. They score 2 goals a game, they let in more than a goal a game, and 8 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals. Leipzig are the bigger reason to be here. They score more than 2 goals a game and they let in more than a goal a game. Twelve of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. They have not tied a single one of those 14 games either, which tells you how open they are. On the road it gets worse for them. Leipzig let in more than 2 goals a game away from home. Leverkusen have had only 4 days since their last game to Leipzig's 7, and four of their players are out. A tired back line against this Leipzig attack points one way. Expect the ball to turn over again and again rather than a slow chess match. A 3-1 to Leverkusen is the likeliest finish, and that clears what we need. The risk is a cagey start. If Leverkusen go ahead early and slow the game down, the goals can dry up. We still want the open, end to end game.

💬 Derbies between these two rarely turn into high scoring games. The last 20 meetings averaged 3 goals, and fewer than half of them produced 3 goals or more. Atletico are the reason. They have won 4 and tied 2 of their 7 home games, letting in under a goal a game at the Metropolitano. That part of their game still works. The attack is a different story. Sorloth is out with a muscle problem. Julian Alvarez has missed the last two games with a muscle injury, so Jonathan David is expected to lead the line. Atletico score almost 2 goals a game, and without their two main forwards that number should drop. Real carry the goals in this one. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won 11 of their last 15. They have their own absences, with Militao, Mendy and Rodrygo all out. Expect a physical, tight derby that Atletico stay in for long spells before Real's front line finds a way through. A 1-2 to Real is the likeliest finish, and three goals keeps us on the right side. The risk is real. Real have been creating a lot of chances lately, and this game finished 5-2 in September 2025, so it can get away from you. A derby can also swing on an early penalty or a red card. We still expect a tight game with few goals.

💬 Estrela do not beat anyone by much, and that is the heart of this pick. Every one of their last 11 games finished level or by a single goal. They have won 2 and tied 6 of those 11, so getting a result out of them is the normal outcome. Estrela are not hard to score against either. They let in almost 2 goals a game, and 9 of their last 11 games had 3 or more goals. Their last six all produced at least three, including 2-2 ties with Famalicao, Alverca and Sporting. Viseu arrive in better shape. They have won their last two league games, they let in under a goal a game, and they have won 8 and tied 5 of their last 18. On the road they have been steady too, letting in one goal a game. Viseu have also had 8 days since their last game to Estrela's 6, so they should be the fresher side. Expect an end to end afternoon with chances at both ends. A 2-2 is the likeliest finish, and a tie is all we need. The risk is that Viseu's defending looks better than it has been, helped by second tier games inside their record. They have not created much lately either, so one Estrela goal could decide it. We are still happy taking Viseu with a start.

💬 Vitoria cannot score, and that is why we want Moreirense with a start. Vitoria have scored one goal across their three home league games this season, a 0-0, a 1-0 and a 0-1. They score under a goal a game overall and have won 3 of their last 11. Big wins are simply not in them. Vitoria have won by 2 or more goals once in those 11 games. They also lose Ndoye to suspension here, which thins out an attack that was already blunt. The meetings say the same. These two have met 19 times with just over 2 goals a game between them, and three of the last five finished 1-0 to the hosts. That is our read again, a tight 1-0 to Vitoria, and we should be honest, we are asking Moreirense to do a little better than that. A tie is what we want, and in a game this close one Moreirense goal can bring it. They are more than capable of digging one out on a good day. The worry is that Moreirense travel badly. They have lost 5 of their 7 away games and they let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. They have also been beaten by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 15. We still think Vitoria are too blunt to pull away.

💬 Nice have turned their own ground into a very quiet place. They have tied five of their six home games there, and they score less than a goal a game overall. Only 5 of their last 15 games have had 3 or more goals. They have won just twice in 15, so goals are not about to start flowing. Lille are clearly the better side, but they win these games in a low key way. They let in less than a goal a game on the road, where they have won seven of their eight away games. Only 6 of Lille's last 15 games have had 3 or more goals. Put the two together and you get long spells of very little football. The last meeting finished 0-0, and the last 19 meetings have averaged more than 2 goals in total. Lille should take the lead through one good moment, and bottom placed Nice do not have the players to answer it. A 0-1 Lille win is the likeliest score, and a night like that is exactly what we want. The honest warning is that Lille have given up better chances than the goals they let in suggest. Their back line may not stay this tidy, and an early goal would drag Nice out of their shell. We still expect a slow, low scoring evening in Nice.

💬 United's away games keep ending up tight. They have tied three of their six away games, with two wins and one loss, and they score just over a goal a game on those trips. Fulham tell the same story from the other side. They score just over a goal a game and let in just over a goal a game, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. Fulham also make far more chances than they take, so plenty of their better nights still end with one goal. United arrive short handed. They are without de Ligt, Ugarte, Diallo and Heaton, and Baleba and Shaw are both doubtful. They have also had only four days since a 2-3 home cup loss to Brighton. A patched up side on four days' rest rarely throws itself into an open game. The last 20 meetings between these two have averaged almost 3 goals, so the history here is not wild either. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and a game like that sits nicely for us. The risk is United's own habit. They have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 14 games, so they can turn a flat night into a busy one. Fulham are better at home too, where they have won four of seven. We still think this one stays tight and low scoring.

💬 Elversberg do not play in quiet games. They have had 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 12 games, and their games average just over 4 goals in total. They score more than 2 goals a game and they let in more than a goal a game, so they give as much as they get. Schalke are not a careful side either. They score almost 2 goals a game, their games average almost 3 goals in total, and 7 of their last 12 have had 3 or more goals. Schalke have let in only one goal in five home games. They have given up far better chances than that, so the tidy record may not last much longer. Elversberg have traded blows with Leverkusen, Gladbach and Bayern inside a month, and they will not sit back here. Schalke won the last meeting 2-1 at Elversberg in April, and something like it looks the likeliest shape again. Schalke's control in midfield should decide it late, with Elversberg scoring as they nearly always do. That is also the honest part. A 2-1 is the single most likely score, and we need this game to get past that, so the fourth goal matters. Elversberg are missing Seifert and Zimmerschied, which could blunt them a little. Even so, with these two attacks on show, we are happy going for goals.

💬 These two produce quiet games. Only 3 of Juventus's last 14 games have had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. Juventus let in less than a goal a game. They have been even tighter at home, where they have won four, tied three and lost one. Atalanta are not the force they were. They score just over a goal a game and they have created very little lately. They have also lost their last two league games, 1-2 at home to Cagliari and 1-2 at Roma. Their games average just over 2 goals as well. The state of the home squad points the same way. Juventus are missing seven players, including Thuram, Locatelli and Milik, and they have had three days off to Atalanta's eight. A tired, thin side takes the lead and then keeps the ball rather than hunting a second goal. Fewer than half of the meetings between these two have had 3 or more goals. A 1-0 Juventus win is the likeliest score, and that is just the sort of night we are after. The risk is what Atalanta can still do on their day. They won 3-0 at this ground in February, so the ceiling is there. If a patched up Juventus back line cracks early, this could open up. We are still backing the low scoring game in Turin.

💬 Betis are wide open away from home. They let in more than 2 goals a game on the road, and their trips this season include a 3-2 at Lille and a 2-5 at Levante. They have had 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 12 games, and their games average 3 goals in total. Betis sit third and have won four of their last five, so they will not come here to shut up shop. Deportivo will happily join in. They score more than a goal a game, their home games average more than 2 goals, and they have scored three goals twice in their last four. The setup around this one points the same way. Betis have had only three days since beating Getafe 1-0, and now they travel the length of Spain to Galicia. They are without Llorente, Ruibal and Losada. Deportivo lose Angelino to a suspension, so the home back line is patched up too. Tired legs and makeshift defences do not make for a tight game. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest score, and that is the busy kind of game we are after. The worry is Deportivo's finishing. They have been scoring more than their chances really deserve, so a flat night in front of goal is possible. Betis showed against Getafe that they can lock a game down when they want to. We still expect both teams to score and the goals to come.

💬 Levante cannot score away from home. They have managed five goals in seven away games, and they have not scored at all in their three away league trips this season. Those were a 0-0 at Malaga, a 0-0 at Osasuna and a 0-3 at Espanyol. They are also without Etta Eyong, Primo and Sotelo, so the visiting attack is short of ideas and bodies. Villarreal are a different team at home. They score 2 goals a game overall and even more than that across their seven home games, so they do not play for narrow wins. The head to head backs them as well. Villarreal have won the last three meetings, including a 5-1 in May, and they lead the last 19 meetings 11W-2D-6L. A 2-0 home win is the likeliest score, and that is the clear sort of win we need. Villarreal should get their nose in front before the hour and never be seriously troubled after it. The honest worry is their own form. Villarreal have lost four of their last five. They also let in more than a goal a game at home, so they give up plenty at their own end. They have had only three days' rest after winning 3-1 at Malaga, which may bring changes. Levante have kept two away games goalless, so they can grind. Even so, we want Villarreal to win this one well.

💬 Casa Pia are the worst team in Portugal right now, and that is the simplest reason we are with Estoril. Casa Pia sit bottom of the league on one point from six games, with a goal difference of minus 14. That is the worst in the division, and on the road they barely score at all. Estoril are no great side either. They have won only 1 of their last 16 games and score less than a goal a game. What they do have is a much better record against this opponent. Estoril have won 6, tied 5 and lost 1 of the last 12 meetings between these two. Casa Pia have won 2 of their last 17 and let in more than a goal a game. This is a team that cannot punish a mistake and cannot protect a lead either. Estoril have had 6 days of rest to prepare for them. Expect a scrappy, quiet afternoon in Cascais. One moment should decide it, a set piece or a deflection rather than anything built, and a 1-0 to the home side is the likeliest finish. The worry here is real. Estoril have not won a home game in this run, with 3 ties and 5 losses, and the last two meetings ended 0-0 and 2-2. A tie is very much live. We still make Estoril the better team and back them to find the one goal that matters.

💬 Santa Clara have been the story of the Portuguese season, and we are happy to back them to stay with Braga here. They sit fourth on 14 points from six games and have won 8 of their last 15. At home they have won 5, tied 1 and lost 1, scoring almost 2 goals a game and letting in under a goal a game. Braga are a good side but not a runaway one. They have won 7, tied 5 and lost 2 of their last 14. On the road they have tied four of their eight games and score just over a goal a game. That points to a controlled, physical game on São Miguel rather than a shootout. Both teams defend well and both will take a point if the first goal is not theirs. Santa Clara are without Sorriso, who is suspended after a red card, and MT with a knee injury. Braga have captain Ricardo Horta back in contention, but Sekou Niakate is still out. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and Santa Clara keeping this tight is exactly what we want. The danger is history. Braga have won 11 of the last 19 meetings between these two, so a clean away win is no shock at all. We still think this Santa Clara team is good enough to stay with them.

💬 Paderborn do not get beaten badly, and that is the heart of this pick. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 17 games, and they have won 7 and tied 6 in that run. A promoted team that keeps games close is the profile we want. Their problem is the other end. Paderborn have not scored in any of their three Bundesliga games so far. The opening run was Dortmund, Freiburg and Mainz though, which is about as hard as a start gets. They also miss Awortwie-Grant, Eickel and Gayret through injury. Hoffenheim are far from a machine. They have won 5, tied 3 and lost 6 of their last 14, and they let in 2 goals a game. Away from home they have won 2, tied 1 and lost 4, and they let in more than 2 a game on their travels. The timing helps the home side. Hoffenheim lost 0-2 at OFI in the Europa League on Thursday and have had only 3 days since, against 8 for Paderborn. Tired legs should mean a stretched, even game, and a 1-1 is the most likely finish. The risk is obvious. If Paderborn stay as blunt as they have been, a 0-2 is very live. We think the rest gap and their habit of staying close carry this one.

💬 Neither of these teams scores much, and that is the case for keeping the goals low. Milan score just over a goal a game and their games average just over 2 goals in total. They have no win in three and were beaten 0-2 at home by Benfica in midweek. Lecce tell the same story with less of the ball. They score under a goal a game. Away from home they have been organised rather than open, letting in just over a goal a game across nine away trips. Only 6 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals in them. Milan also carry the heavier legs. They have had 4 days since their last game, Lecce have had 7. A tired Milan chasing a first win in three will control this rather than throw bodies forward. Lecce are happy to sit in and make it awkward, and they are missing Willem Geubbels up top. That all points to a grinding game decided in the second half. A 1-0 to Milan is the likeliest score, and a night of one or two goals is the read. The warning comes from history. These two have averaged over 3 goals in their last 15 meetings, and Lecce let in four at home to Roma three weeks ago. An early Milan goal could open it up, but we still expect a tight, low scoring game.

💬 Neither of these teams is in any shape to play an open game, and that is why we want a quiet night. Valencia sit 19th in the table with seven players ruled out, including Diakhaby, Foulquier and Sadiq. A patched up side in the relegation places does not go chasing goals. Valencia score just over a goal a game and only 5 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals in them. They have lost four of their last five, so the Mestalla will be anxious rather than loud. Real Sociedad are just as short of rhythm. They have won 2, tied 5 and lost 6 of their last 13, and away from home they have won 1, tied 3 and lost 3. They also played on Thursday, losing 1-2 at home to Bournemouth, and have had only 3 days since. Valencia have had 5. History backs the same picture. The last 20 meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals, and 7 of them ended level. A tense 1-1 that neither side can win is the likeliest finish, and that is the game we want. The risk is that both defences leak. Real Sociedad let in almost 2 goals a game, and these two produced a 4-3 in May. We still think two nervous teams at Mestalla keeps this one low scoring.

💬 Porto have been the harder team to beat at their own ground, and that is why we want them with a head start. Porto have won 12 and lost only 3 of their last 18 games. At home they let in less than a goal a game, with seven wins and one loss in eleven there. Benfica bring the bigger numbers. They have won 12, tied 4 and lost 1 of their last 17, and they score just over 3 goals a game. That scoring run is hotter than they can keep up, and a game like this usually pulls it back. These two have a history of tight ones. Their last 20 meetings have averaged under 3 goals a game, and the last three ended 2-2, 1-0 and 0-0. Both squads are short of players. Porto are missing a centre back and a striker in Samu Omorodion, and Benfica have doubts over Sudakov and Aursnes. Benfica have also had only 4 days since their game at Milan, against 8 for Porto. Expect a careful first hour and a game decided by one moment at each end. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that is a result we are happy with. The worry is Benfica's top level. They have won by 2 or more goals in 11 of their last 17 games, so an early goal would stretch this. We still trust Porto to stay with them.