Athletic Club vs Alaves — Tips & Analysis

Alaves +1: Alaves are very hard to beat by more than a goal, and that is the heart of this one. They have lost by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 16 games, so heavy defeats are not their thing. They sit 6th, three points and two places above Athletic, and they travel well, with 2 wins, 3 ties and 2 losses in seven away games. Athletic are the bigger name but they are in poor shape. They have won 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, and both first choice centre backs, Egiluz and Vivian, are out. Their five home games have averaged just over a goal scored and just over a goal let in. This Basque derby has always been close. The last 20 meetings averaged under 2 goals in total, and Alaves have lost only 8 of them. Everything points to another cagey night, and a 1-1 tie is the honest read. That does the job for us. The one real worry is fitness. Alaves have had four days off to Athletic's seven, and this is their third game in ten days, after losing at home to Valencia. They also lose Garces to suspension and M. Rodriguez to an ankle problem, so tired legs late on could cost them. Even so, Alaves staying close is the side we want.