VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund — Tips & Analysis

Borussia Dortmund +0.25: Dortmund keep finding a way to win, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won their last five games and 11 of their last 15. They have not tied a single game all season. On the road they have won five of their seven away games. They also have the better defending in this game, letting in just over a goal a game. They have not lost by 2 or more in their last 15. Stuttgart are a real test at the MHP Arena. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won five of their seven home games. The problem is who they have left at the back. Zagadou, Jaquez and Assignon are all out, and first choice goalkeeper Dennis Seimen is out for months. Stuttgart have also been giving up more good chances lately than their results suggest. This should be an open afternoon. Stuttgart's games are rarely quiet, with 12 of their last 14 bringing 3 or more goals. The last 20 meetings between these two averaged almost 4 goals. A 1-2 away win is the likeliest score, and that is exactly what we want. The warning is that Stuttgart at home let in only a goal a game. They have also won by 2 or more in 5 of their last 14. Dortmund are also without Emre Can and Lerma in midfield, so control is not guaranteed. We still think Dortmund's run and their extra quality see them through.