Sporting CP vs Arouca — Tips & Analysis

Sporting CP -1.75: Sporting have owned this matchup, and that is where the case begins. They have won 16 of the last 19 meetings with Arouca, including a 6-0 and two 3-0s. Sporting score more than 2 goals a game at home and have lost only twice in their last 16. Their last five read four wins and a tie, with a 3-1 win over Galatasaray among them. They have also put three or more goals past Rio Ave, Alverca and Vitoria SC in this run. Arouca are the opposite kind of team. They have scored once in three away league games this season, a 0-0 at Estoril, a 0-2 at Porto and a 1-0 win at Vitoria SC. On the road they score under a goal a game and let in under a goal a game. Expect them to sit deep at Alvalade and make the first half slow and ugly. Once Sporting get the first goal, Arouca have very little to hurt them on the break. A 2-0 home win looks the most likely result, and we need Sporting to win by two or more. Here is the honest part. Arouca have lost by 2 or more goals only once in their last 15 games, so they are hard to pull apart. Sporting have Champions League games in this window and could rest players. We still back the gap in class to show.