Tips — Saturday, 10 October 2026

💬 Cottbus have been in one high scoring game after another, and that is the case for goals here. Their games have had almost 4 goals in total on average. They tied 4-4 at Wolfsburg and lost 3-4 at home to Fürth, so they are happy to trade. Darmstadt are the perfect opponent for that. They are bottom of the 2. Bundesliga on 4 points from 6 games. They let in more than 2 goals a game, and they were beaten 1-5 at Wolfsburg last time out. They have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 14 games. Cottbus carry the better attack into this. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in almost 2, so they are not built to close a game down. They are also close to full strength, with only the long term absence of Engelhardt. Darmstadt are missing Sickinger, Bader, Marseiler and Papela. Both defenses have been giving up chances freely of late. These clubs have never met in a competitive game, so there is no history to lean on. A 1-3 to Cottbus is the likely read, and a game with four goals in it is just what we want. The warning is Cottbus' level. They came up from the third tier and have played only six games at this height, so they are still an unknown. Darmstadt also beat Bielefeld 2-1 at home last month. We still want the goals.

💬 Magdeburg are strong at the Avnet Arena, and that is why we are with them. They have won 5 of their 8 home games there. When they win, they usually win clearly, by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 17 games. They have lost by 2 or more only once in those 17. They score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal, so they play on the front foot. Hannover arrive in worse shape than their scoring suggests. They sit 11th on 7 points from 6 games. Their big away goal numbers lean heavily on a 9-1 cup win at non-league Hemelingen, which tells us little about a trip here. Take that night out and the attack looks ordinary. Both sides come in close to full strength. Magdeburg miss only Loric and Hannover only Nielsen, and neither of them has played a league minute this season. So this comes down to the home platform, and a 2-1 to Magdeburg is the likely read. Be careful though. Hannover are hard to beat, with only 3 losses in their last 15 games, and they have won 6 of the last 11 meetings between these clubs. That history is the main thing standing in the way. We still think Magdeburg have enough to come out on top here.

💬 Dresden are the weaker side here, and that is the main reason we are with the hosts. They sit 17th on 4 points from 6 games. Away from home they have won 2, tied 1 and lost 4, and they let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. Their away scoring looks better than it is, propped up by a 6-0 cup win at non-league Westfalia Rhynern. They have also been giving up far more chances than their goals let on over their last three games. Osnabrück have the tools to take this. They have won 6 of their last 12 games and they score almost 2 goals a game. The team news helps them too. Dresden are reported to be without goalkeeper Grill and defender Bünning, with Kenneth Schmidt out until early November. Osnabrück miss only Badjie. We will be honest about the home side as well. Osnabrück have been worse at the Bremer Brücke than on their travels, letting in more than 2 goals a game there. The record includes 0-3 and 1-3 home defeats. A 2-1 to Osnabrück is the likely read, in a game with chances at both ends. The history is the real worry. Dresden have won 6 of the last 10 meetings between these clubs. So this is tighter than the table makes it look, but we still want Osnabrück to come out on top.

💬 At the Emirates Arsenal win games without turning them into shootouts, and that is the base of this one. They have won 7 of their 8 home games, scoring 2 goals a game there and letting in under a goal a game. Their games overall have had just over 2 goals in total on average, and more than half have ended with 2 goals or fewer. Leeds are built to keep things tight as well. They have tied three of their last five league games, including a 0-0 at home to Crystal Palace. On the road they grind rather than go chasing goals, and they let in more than a goal a game. Arsenal come back from a three week break stung by a 3-0 loss at Brighton. Expect them to control the ball, break through before the hour and add a second as Leeds tire. A 2-0 to Arsenal is the likely read, and two goals sits comfortably inside what we want. Two things to watch. Saliba is out and Konsa is a doubt, so the Arsenal back line is thinner than usual. Leeds also bring busier games with them, averaging 3 goals in total, and Arsenal won the last two meetings 4-0 and 5-0. A night like those blows this apart. We still think this one stays low scoring.

💬 Athletic barely score, and that is the main reason we want a quiet night in Vallecas. They get a goal a game, and 7 in every 10 of their games have ended with 2 goals or fewer. Their team news makes that worse. Nico Williams and Oihan Sancet are both out, and they are the two who turn Athletic's good build up into goals. Egiluz and Djalo are missing too, and Athletic have won once in their last four away trips. Rayo are hard to beat at home but they are no goal machine. They are unbeaten in seven at Vallecas, four wins and three ties, scoring almost 2 goals a game there and letting in just over a goal. The history fits the same picture. The last 20 meetings have averaged more than 2 goals in total, and the most recent one finished 1-1. That is the read again here, a scrappy night where Rayo's crowd and Athletic's caution cancel each other out. A 1-1 sits inside what we want. The honest worry is Rayo's goalkeeper. First choice keeper Augusto Batalla is out with a broken calf bone. A stand in keeper behind a side that lets in more than a goal at home is a real risk. Athletic have also been making plenty of chances over their last four games. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 These two have been playing out quiet, nervy games for years, and that is the heart of this one. 11 of the last 20 meetings ended level. Those games averaged just over 2 goals in total, and only 4 in 10 of them had 3 or more goals. The last five read 0-0, 2-2, 1-2, 0-1 and 1-1. Genoa cannot score. They are 19th with one point from five games and get under a goal a game. They have six players out, including forward Lorenzo Colombo, so help is thin. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 14 games. Fiorentina are better than 17th place suggests, but they have been fragile on their travels. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than a goal. Put two struggling sides together at the Ferraris and a slow, careful afternoon is the honest read. A 1-1 is the likely score, and that stays inside what we want. Two warnings. Fiorentina have been making plenty of chances over their last three games, and an early goal from them changes the shape of the game. Their own games have had almost 3 goals in total on average, so they are not always this quiet. We still want the low scoring game here.

💬 Hoffenheim games are almost never quiet, and that is the case for goals here. 12 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them, and their games have had almost 4 goals in total on average. They score more than a goal a game and let in more than 2, so they trade chances rather than shut games down. Hamburg are falling apart at the back. They have lost three of their last four league games, with two goals scored and thirteen let in. That run includes 0-5 at RB Leipzig and 0-5 at home to Mainz. On the road they have won 2, tied 1 and lost 5, and they let in more than 2 goals a game away from home. Their team news is bad too, with Patson Daka, Albert Gronbaek and Mario Vuskovic all out. Hamburg have also made very few chances of their own over their last three games, and they have given up plenty. The history points the same way, because the last 18 meetings averaged just over 3 goals in total. A 3-1 to Hoffenheim is the likely read, and four goals is exactly what we want. The honest part is Hoffenheim's own form. They have won once in their last five, losing 1-3 at Paderborn and 0-2 at OFI, and that second one was a quiet night. Hamburg also beat Koln 2-1 last time out, so they can still grind a game down. We still want the busy night.

💬 Bayern save their big wins for Munich, and that is the case for backing Augsburg to stay close. Away from home Bayern have won 2-1, 2-1 and 1-0 and tied 0-0 at Schalke. They score more than 2 goals a game on the road, against more than 4 a game at the Allianz. Augsburg are in good form and they can hurt teams. They sit 5th on 7 points from four games, and they score more than 2 goals a game at the WWK Arena. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 14 games, so they are rarely taken apart. Bayern are still the better side by a long way. They have won 11, tied 3 and lost 1 of their last 15, and they win by just over 2 goals on average. They have been making plenty of chances over their last three games and giving up almost nothing. Jamal Musiala is out for them, and Augsburg are without forward Steve Mounie. A 1-3 to Bayern is the likely read. Augsburg get on the scoresheet and Bayern win by a couple rather than burying them, which is just what we want. The worry is plain. Bayern have hammered sides 7-0 and 5-1 in Munich this season, and one of those nights here beats us. Augsburg have also been giving up plenty of chances over their last four games. We still think Augsburg keep this close enough.

💬 Mainz are a different team at home, and not in a good way. That is the case for backing Leverkusen. Mainz have no win from four games at the MEWA Arena, with one tie and three defeats. They score just over a goal a game there and let in more than 2. Their goalkeeper problem makes it harder. First choice keeper Robin Zentner is back in training but could not take part in goalkeeper drills. That leaves Alexander Schwolow set to start behind that back line. Leverkusen arrive in better shape. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in just over a goal. They won 2-0 at home to RB Leipzig, 2-0 against Celje and 4-0 against Union Berlin without letting one in. Patrik Schick, Nathan Tella and Martin Terrier are all set to come back into the squad this weekend. Leverkusen have made more chances than Mainz over the last five games, and they have given up fewer. The history helps as well, with Leverkusen winning 13 of the last 20 meetings between these clubs. A 1-2 is the likely read, an open game that Leverkusen edge, with Mainz scoring but coming up short. Here is the risk. Leverkusen's away form has been patchy. They lost 2-3 at Elversberg and tied 2-2 at Augsburg, and they let in almost 2 goals a game on the road. Mainz are also getting Nebel and Widmer back in training. We still think Leverkusen come out on top.

💬 Union cannot keep a game quiet, and that is the heart of this one. Every single one of their last ten games has had 3 or more goals in it. They sit 17th with one point from four games and a minus 13 goal difference, the worst defending in the division. They let in almost 3 goals a game. Three of their first choice defenders are out, with Juranovic, Markgraf and Nsoki all unavailable and Burke a doubt. Elversberg are the wrong visitors to get for that. They sit eighth, score more than 2 goals a game and have won three of their last five. They travel well too, with 2 goals a game on the road, and they took four off Gladbach away and beat Leverkusen 3-2. Union will have to come out and chase this at the Alte Foersterei, and that is how the game opens up. A 1-3 is the likely score, and four goals lands on the right side of what we want. Two honest warnings go with that. Union have had 22 days to work on that back line, and Elversberg have not won away since early September. Elversberg also showed at Schalke, in a 0-0, that they can play a flat away game when it suits them. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Paderborn have stopped scoring, and that is the main reason we want a quieter game at the Home Deluxe Arena. They have three goals in four Bundesliga games and have been making very few chances in that run. Their season scoring looks healthier than that. It leans on a 4-2 cup win at fourth tier Phoenix Luebeck and on second tier games from earlier in the year. Stuttgart are the better side here and score 2 goals a game. They still arrive 15th and have won once in their last six away trips. That is a team edging results rather than running teams over. The history fits the same picture, because the last three meetings averaged 2 goals in total. Expect Stuttgart to carry most of the threat and win by a goal. This should be a scrappy game where two patched up defences matter more than either passing game. A 1-2 is the likely score, and three goals sits inside what we want. The worry here is real and worth saying plainly. Stuttgart hand Dennis Seimen his first Bundesliga game in goal, and their own centre backs Al-Dakhil and Zagadou are both out. Paderborn are missing their two first choice centre backs as well. 10 of Stuttgart's last 12 games have had 3 or more goals, so this can get away from us. We still lean to the lower scoring game.

💬 Brentford turn games into arm wrestles, and that is the base of this pick. They have tied 11 of their last 18 games and 6 of their 10 away trips, losing only twice on the road. Two thirds of their games have finished with 3 goals or fewer. They let in just over a goal a game and they squeeze the life out of a match rather than win it in style. Villa are missing the players who would stretch them. Onana, Maatsen and Pau Torres are all out through the middle and the left, with Bizot, Madjo and Goretzka unavailable too. Villa are 16th and have already lost two of four at Villa Park, 0-1 to Arsenal and 1-2 to Nottingham Forest. The history is the clincher. Four of the last five meetings finished 0-1, 1-1, 0-1 and 1-0, each with 2 goals or fewer. Expect a tight, low chance game where one moment goes each way and nobody finds a second goal. A 1-1 is the likely score, and two goals sits comfortably inside what we want. The risk is Villa's own habit of busy games. They score 2 goals a game and won 3-2 at Tottenham and 3-2 at Club Brugge inside their last five. 11 of their last 13 games have had 3 or more goals, so an early goal would change this quickly. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Bournemouth do not get beaten heavily, and that is the whole case for keeping them close at Stamford Bridge. They have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of their last 15 games. Only two of those 15 ended in defeat at all, and they tied 7 of them. They are even tidier on the road, with four wins from seven away trips and just over a goal a game let in. Chelsea do not blow teams away either. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 14 games, and they have lost 6 of the 14. The last 19 meetings have averaged more than 2 goals in total. The last five produced 2-2, 0-0, 2-2, 1-0 and 2-1, which are close games rather than big wins. A 2-1 Chelsea win is the honest read here, and that is right at the limit of what this pick can take. What we need is Bournemouth within a goal at the final whistle, and their record says that is usually where they finish. The worry is Chelsea's team news. Caicedo, Reece James, Palmer and Joao Pedro are all back after the break, and only Gittens is ruled out. Chelsea score more than 2 goals a game at their own ground, with 2-2 against Hull, 4-3 against Brighton and 6-3 against Leeds in the cup. Bournemouth are also missing four forwards. We are still with Bournemouth to keep this tight.

💬 Fulham cannot score away from home, and that is why we are happy taking Ipswich with a head start. Fulham have barely scored on their travels, well under a goal a game across seven away trips. They sit 19th on two points from five games and arrive with Cairney, Robinson and Tete all doubtful. Their games are quiet too, with just over 2 goals in total on average and only 5 of their last 14 ending with 3 or more goals. Ipswich are a different team at Portman Road. They average 2 goals a game there, with three wins from six home games, and they won 3-2 away at Crystal Palace last month. That is enough to hold a side this short of goals. Expect a nervous, low quality game between two teams who need the points too badly to take risks. A 1-1 is the likely score, and a point for Ipswich is exactly what this pick is built on. Now the honest part. Ipswich have lost four of their last five and have been giving up plenty of chances in that run, so recent form is not on our side. They also lose the suspended Fatawu from the right, which takes away their best way of hurting a deep defence. We still think Ipswich do enough to stay level or better here.

💬 These two keep serving up tight, low scoring games, and that is the heart of this pick. The last three meetings produced 0-1, 0-0 and 0-1, which is well under a goal in total on average, and none of them went past 2 goals. Sunderland are the main reason why. They barely score at the Stadium of Light, under a goal a game across nine home games, and they let in 1 a game there. They lose striker Brobbey and Diarra for this one, with Ballard and Mundle out as well, so help is thin. Only 7 of their last 17 games have had 3 or more goals. Brighton have problems of their own in front of goal. Mitoma, Minteh, Ferguson and Tzimas are all unavailable, with Wieffer and Azeez out too. Dunk and Hinshelwood are the only meaningful returns. Expect Brighton to be far better with the ball, Sunderland to be awkward to break down, and one goal to decide it. A 0-1 is the likely score, and that sits comfortably inside what we want. The risk is simple. Sunderland have been making plenty of chances over their last four games, and goals from that would change this fast. Brighton also beat Arsenal 3-0 with much the same thin squad, and 12 of their last 16 games have had 3 or more goals. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 This game is almost always a grind, and that is the base of our pick. The last 18 meetings averaged just over 2 goals in total. The last four produced 1, 2, 0 and 3 goals, and two of the last five were goalless or had a single goal in them. Alaves sit sixth and are 5W-1D-3L at home, but they get there by making the pitch small. They have been creating very little over their last five games. They are also without Facundo Garces, who is suspended, and Koski and M. Rodriguez are both injured, so the squad is thinner than usual. Atletico have been the better side by a distance underneath, making far more chances than they give up. They score more than a goal a game and have won 9 of their last 16. That is a team who decides nights like this with one moment rather than a siege. Alaves have beaten Atletico twice in 18 tries, so expect them to sit deep and protect their box. A 0-1 to Atletico is the likely score, and one goal sits comfortably inside what we want. The honest worry is Atletico away from home, where results swing hard. A 0-3 at Athletic and a 1-5 at Villarreal came in their last eight trips, and 10 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. We still want the quieter game here.

💬 Le Havre are the hardest side in this league to beat by a lot, and that is the whole case here. They have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of their last 12 games. Seven of those 12 finished in ties, and all four defeats came by a single goal. Lille have not been the team to break that pattern. They are 2W-3D-2L at home and score just over a goal a game there, which is their weaker half. On the road they are 6W-0D-1L. They have also won by 2 or more in only 4 of their last 14 games. Le Havre sit 18th on two points, so nobody is calling them good. They are well drilled though, and only 3 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals in them. Expect a tight, slow evening with Lille camped in the Le Havre half and very little space to play in. A 1-0 to Lille is the likely score, and a one goal game is exactly what we want. The honest worry is Le Havre's team news, which is bad. Mambimbi, Mpasi-Nzau, Pembele, Toure and Zagadou are all out, with Jelert a doubt, so that is five of the squad gone and a sixth in question. Lille have also won two of these meetings 3-0. We still think Le Havre keep this close.

💬 Parma do not get beaten heavily, and that is the base of this pick. They have not lost by more than two goals in their last 15 games, and only 3 of those 15 were lost by 2 or more at all. Inter are a different class at San Siro. They are 6W-1D-0L at home at 3 goals a game and have won 9 of their last 14 overall. Big wins are rarer than that sounds, because they have won by three goals in just 3 of their last 14. Parma arrive 15th with three goals in their last six away games. They will not try to trade punches here. They will sit in, keep the game narrow and take whatever comes their way. Inter have good reason to manage this one too. Calhanoglu, Curtis Jones and Luis Henrique are all out of their midfield, and they travel to Club Brugge three days later. The last two meetings at San Siro both finished 2-0, which is the shape we expect again. A 2-0 to Inter is the likely score, and that stays inside what we need. The risk is that Inter can bury teams once they get going. They score more than 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Parma are short themselves, with Almqvist, Ndiaye and Nicolussi Caviglia out. We still think Parma stay within range.

💬 United do not win big, and that is the first thing to know here. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 3 of their last 14 games. They have also been creating very little over their last three outings, and they lose Sesko, Dorgu and Mazraoui from the squad. United score almost 2 goals a game and have won 7 of their last 14, so this is a side that nicks results rather than takes teams apart. Tottenham sit 20th on two points, but the table is harsh on them. They have been hard to score against lately, with 0-0s at Nottingham Forest and against Everton. They have lost by 2 or more in only 3 of their last 13 games. The history fits that picture. The last five meetings read 2-0, 2-2, 0-1, 0-1 and 3-4, and only one of them was won by more than a goal. Expect a nervy, scrappy night where one moment decides it. A 2-1 to United is the most likely single score, and a game decided by one goal is the shape we want. We need Tottenham to stay within a goal, and their defending says that is live. The honest worry is Old Trafford. United are 5W-0D-3L there with no ties all season, scoring more than 2 goals a game. Tottenham have two league goals in five games and are missing Porro, Simons, Odobert and Mudryk. We still think Tottenham keep this tight.

💬 Barcelona are flattening teams at home, and that is the reason this pick is on. They are 6W-0D-0L at the Camp Nou and score 4 goals a game there. They have won their last five games and won by 2 or more in 11 of their last 14. Getafe are the wrong visitors for that. They have scored one goal in their last six away games and have no win in them. They also lose both of their main forwards, with Christantus Uche and Juanmi out with knee injuries and Abqar a doubt. That leaves them nothing to hold the ball with when the pressure comes. Expect Getafe to go low and narrow and try to make this an ugly night. They can hold that shape for a spell. Barcelona have the bodies to keep going though, and these nights usually break open after the hour once legs go. A 3-0 is the likely score, and that clears what we need. The honest worry is Barcelona's habit of stopping at two. Exactly two goals is their most common winning margin, in 6 of their last 14, and they have won by three or more in only 5 of 14. The 20 meetings between these two average just over 2 goals in total, and Raphinha, Frenkie de Jong, Christensen and Bardghji are all out. We still back Barcelona to win this well.

💬 Both of these teams keep turning up in busy games, and that is the simplest case here. Frankfurt have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 11 games. Leipzig are the same story, with 3 or more goals in 12 of their last 14. Leipzig have won all six of their recent home games, and both of their home league games this season had 3 or more goals. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game, so they rarely keep things quiet. Frankfurt also score more than 2 goals a game, but they let in 2 goals a game. They have let in goals in both of their away league games this season, and they lost 1-4 at home to Augsburg last month. They still find the net on the road: 3-1 at Mainz, 3-3 at Union Berlin and 2-3 at Dortmund. So we get an open home side against a defense that leaks, and Frankfurt score even when they lose. A 3-1 Leipzig win looks the most likely score, and a game like that gets us home. The honest worry is a slow start. These two averaged almost 3 goals in total in their last 20 meetings. Both sides have also had about three weeks off, so rust could keep the early goals away. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Porto do their winning quietly, and that is the heart of this one. They have won 13 of their last 17 games, yet only 7 of those 17 had 3 or more goals. They let in under a goal a game and score almost 2, so they tend to take the lead and then manage the rest. Maritimo will help keep it that way. The promoted side have won 5, tied 3 and lost 6 of their last 14. They have not won in five and they score just over a goal a game. They were beaten 0-3 at home by Benfica last month, so they know what happens if they open up. Expect them to sit deep and stay compact for long spells. The history fits too. Maritimo have won only 3 of the last 20 meetings with Porto, and those games have been low on goals. Both sides also come back from a three week break, with 21 and 20 days since their last game. Nobody knows how either side will look after a break that long. A 0-2 away win looks like the right shape, with Porto adding a second once Maritimo have to come out. The warning is Porto's travelling form. They won 4-1 at Casa Pia and 3-0 at Academico Viseu this season, so they can turn a quiet night busy. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Nürnberg have turned the Max-Morlock-Stadion into a fortress, and that is the case for backing them. They have won 5 of their 6 home games and let in under a goal a game there. Across all games they have lost just 1 of their last 14, with a 7 win, 6 tie, 1 loss record. They score almost 2 goals a game, so they carry a real threat as well as a solid defense. Wolfsburg are a different side away from home. Their road record of 4 wins, 2 ties and 2 losses is the better half of their season, and they score 2 goals a game on it. They also let in more than a goal a game, which is where Nürnberg's home scoring should bite. Both teams play in busy games. Nürnberg's games and Wolfsburg's games both average 3 goals in total, so chances should come at both ends. A 2-1 home win looks like the likely shape, with Wolfsburg scoring but Nürnberg's home record deciding it. Two things could spoil it. Wolfsburg have won 6 of the last 11 meetings between these clubs, so the history is on their side. Nürnberg have also been scoring a bit more than their chances deserve over the last few games. We still think the home side have enough to take this one.

💬 Paris FC are simply the better side right now, and that is the main reason we are with them. They sit third after winning 8 of their last 14 games, with only 2 losses. They let in under a goal a game and have not lost by 2 or more in those 14. That mix of quality and control travels well. Their away games are quiet ones. Paris FC score just over a goal a game on the road and let in a goal a game. Three of their six away trips ended in a tie, so expect them to take the lead and then look after it. Lorient give them a way in. The hosts are 13th, have won 4 and lost 6 of their last 14, and score just over a goal a game. They are also short of bodies, with Fadiga, Katseris and Mbamba all out, where Paris FC miss only Sangui. A 0-1 away win is the shape we expect, decided by one moment of better quality rather than a flood of goals. Be careful though. Lorient have won 6 of the last 11 meetings between these two, so the history is not on the visitors' side. Lorient also won 1-0 at Lens this season and tied 2-2 with Toulouse at home, so they can make this awkward. We still want Paris FC to come out on top.

💬 Goals follow these two around, and that is the simple reason we want the busier game. Monaco's games have had more than 3 goals in total on average, and 9 of their last 13 had 3 or more. Toulouse are the same story from the other end. Their games average more than 3 goals too, and 11 of their last 16 had 3 or more. Monaco top Ligue 1 and have won 4 of their last 5, including 2-1 away at Paris Saint Germain. They score 2 goals a game. What they do not do is shut games down, letting in more than a goal a game. Toulouse are 14th and let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. They still create chances, and they have already tied 2-2 at Lorient and 2-2 at Brest this season. The history matches up. The last 19 meetings between these clubs averaged just over 3 goals. Toulouse are missing centre back Nicolaisen, and Monaco are without the suspended Brunner, so neither defense is at full strength. A 2-1 home win is the likely read, and both of these sides keep ending up in games with three or more goals in them. The risk is Monaco. They have been scoring more than their chances really deserve lately, and they are good enough to win this quietly if that cools off. We still expect enough goals here.

💬 PSG are not winning by big margins this season, and that is the heart of this one. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 18 games. They sit sixth, they lost 1-2 at home to Monaco and they tied 2-2 at Lille. They score 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal, so their games stay competitive. They are also resting Mendes and Dembele, with Mayulu injured, so this is not a full strength night. Le Mans are the other half of the case. They have lost just 1 of their last 12 games. More to the point, they have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of those 12. They score almost 2 goals a game. They have also scored in every Ligue 1 game they have played, including a 2-2 with Lens and a 2-1 win over Lorient. Their games average 3 goals in total, so they are not involved in many wild ones. A 2-1 home win is the read here, with Le Mans scoring and keeping the margin small. That lands comfortably on the right side of what we want. The worry is PSG at home. Their home games have averaged almost 4 goals, and they won the last three meetings 2-0, 4-0 and 4-1. We still think this one stays short of a goal rush.

💬 Villarreal bring goals with them wherever they go, and that is the heart of this one. Their games have had almost 4 goals in total on average, and 12 of their last 16 had 3 or more. Real Madrid are happy to join in. They have won all seven of their home games, scoring just over 3 goals a game in them. They score more than 2 a game overall and let in a goal a game. Their defense is also in pieces right now. Centre backs Asencio, Militao and Huijsen are all out, and so is Mendy, so the back line will be thrown together. Villarreal can punish that. They score more than 2 goals a game themselves, and they have kept making plenty of chances over their last five. They have won their last two, 3-1 against Levante and 3-1 away at Malaga, so they arrive scoring freely. The history backs the busy game as well. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 3 goals in total, including a 4-4. A 3-1 to Madrid is the likely read, and four goals in a game is exactly what we want. The caution is that Madrid's injury list cuts both ways. Rodrygo is out too, so a patched up Madrid side might choose to control this rather than chase it. We still expect plenty of goals.

💬 Estoril cannot score, and that is the simple reason we want a quiet game. They get under a goal a game, and only 6 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. They are bottom of the league on 2 points from 7 games. Their last five read LLDLL, and they have won just 1 of their last 16. Viseu are built the same way, only better at it. The hosts let in under a goal a game and score just over a goal a game. Their own games have had just over 2 goals in total on average, and only 9 of their last 18 produced 3 or more. They have won their last three, so they can take their time here. Estoril's team news makes it worse. Begraoui got hurt over the break, centre back Ferro is suspended, and Xeka and Andreou are doubts. A 1-0 home win is the likely read, and one goal is well inside what we want. Two things give us pause. The last six meetings between these clubs averaged more than 3 goals in total. Those are old games, though, from a time when the clubs were in different divisions. Viseu have also been letting in fewer goals than the chances against them deserve. We still want the low scoring game.