Tips — Sunday, 11 October 2026

💬 These two keep playing quiet games against each other. The last 4 meetings produced just over 2 goals a game, and only two of the four had 3 or more goals. Roma are the better team here, and they do not need a shootout to win it. They let in under a goal a game across their last 15, and they have won 5 of their last 7 away games. Como are a tougher proposition at their own ground. They have won 4 of their 6 home games there, with one tie and one loss, and they let in just over a goal a game. Both teams have also had three weeks without a game, which usually means a careful start. Roma keep the ball and squeeze the space. Como sit in and hit on the break, which is how they beat Roma 2-1 in March 2026. The likeliest finish is Como landing one and Roma answering with two. That is three goals, which is about as busy as we want this game to get. The warning is real. Como have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 17 games, and Roma are without first choice keeper Mile Svilar. If Como score early, this can turn into a 4-goal afternoon. We still want the tighter game.

💬 Portsmouth travel to this derby with seven players ruled out, among them Anderson, Murphy and Ogilvie. Southampton are missing only Jander. The gap in available bodies is wider than the gap in the table. Southampton have been strong at St Mary's, where they have won 5 of their 8 home games, tying 2 and losing 1. They score almost 3 goals a game at home, and they have won 7, tied 5 and lost 4 of their last 16 games. Portsmouth score just over a goal a game and let in just over one. They have lost by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 14 games, so a heavy afternoon is in them. Both sides have had three weeks off, so legs will be fresh and the game should stretch. Southampton's home attack is the clear difference, and a patched up Portsmouth side has to live with it for 90 minutes. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest score, and that lands on the right side of this bet. Any win by 2 or more makes it comfortable. The risk is the derby itself. Four of the last five meetings ended level, and the two most recent finished 1-1 and 0-0. Portsmouth dig in for this game, so a tie is a live result even with so many out. We are still with Southampton to win it and win it well.

💬 Bochum play the quietest games in this division. Their last 13 games have averaged just over 2 goals a game. Only one of those had 4 or more goals, and seven of them finished with 2 goals or fewer. Bochum score just over a goal a game and let in just over one. Bielefeld are a different team away from home. They have won once in seven on the road, and their attack has gone flat. They have tied 3 of their last 5 games and 5 of their last 14. The history between these two says the same thing. The last 17 meetings have averaged under 3 goals a game, and only six of them had 3 or more goals. The last two finished 1-1 and 1-0. Put that together and one goal looks like it will be enough. A 1-0 Bochum win is the honest read, and a game like that stays well clear of trouble for us. The danger is Bielefeld's own games. 11 of their last 14 have had 3 or more goals, and Bochum are missing a chunk of their squad, including Strompf, Olsen and Mbom. If Bielefeld's front line clicks early, this could get away from the quiet script. Even so, their away form and the history here both point to few goals, and that is the side we want.

💬 Hertha are the best side in this division right now, and Fürth are poor on the road. Hertha lead the table on 18 points from six games with a goal difference of plus 10. At the Olympiastadion they have won 3 of their 4 home games at 2 goals a game. Across all games they have won 7, tied 2 and lost 3 of their last 12, and they score almost 2 goals a game. Fürth sit 14th and have won once in seven away games, with three ties and three losses. They let in just over a goal a game on their travels. They do score, though. Fürth have found the net in every away league game this season, including a 4-3 at Cottbus. The meetings point the same way. Hertha have won 5 of the last 8 against Fürth, and those games averaged more than 3 goals a game. So expect Hertha to control this and Fürth to get something late. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest score, and that lands on the right side of this bet. A bigger margin makes it easy. Two things could bite. Hertha are missing defenders, with Gechter unavailable, Zeefuik carrying a knee knock and Nilsson a doubt, so Fürth will get chances. Hertha have also won by 2 or more in only 3 of their last 12 games. We are still with the league leaders to win this well.

💬 Neither of these teams scores much, and that is the case in a nutshell. St. Pauli have put exactly one goal on the board in each of their three home league games this season. They score under a goal a game at home, and they have won only 1 of their last 13 games, tying 5 of them. Karlsruhe are not any better going forward. They average a goal a game across their six away games, and three of those six ended level. They sit 17th in the relegation places on five points from six, with a goal difference of minus 6. Both teams have absences too. St. Pauli are without Tomoya Ando, who is suspended, and Marcus Mathisen with a heel problem, and Karlsruhe are missing Moritz Broschinski. St. Pauli's season has been built on 1-1s and 1-0s rather than open football. A 1-0 home win, decided by a set piece or one mistake, is the honest read here, and a game like that is nowhere near busy. The risk sits with Karlsruhe. 11 of their last 14 games have had 3 or more goals, so they can drag a game into a mess. A 2-2 would spoil this for us. Both attacks have been too blunt lately for that, and the low scoring game is the side we want.

💬 Lazio keep winning, but they win small. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 13 games, and their recent league wins read 2-0, 2-1, 1-0 and 1-0. That is the shape we are backing. Lazio are third with 13 points from five games and still unbeaten in the league, so this is no knock on them. Their midfield is patched up though. Rovella is out, Marusic and Gudmundsson are missing too, and Cataldi has only just got back into training. Monza are better than 15th makes them look. They have six wins in their last 14, they score more than a goal a game, and they have scored in each of their last six. Their games are busy as well, bringing just over 3 goals in total on average. Lazio's quality should still tell at the Olimpico. A 2-1 Lazio win is the honest read, and that is not quite enough for this pick. We want Monza to go one better and take a point, which their scoring run makes realistic. A Lazio side missing three players after three weeks off is a fair target. The clear risk is history. Lazio have not lost any of the last six meetings with Monza, winning three of the last five. We still think Monza stay close enough here.

💬 Neither of these sides can score. Lecce manage less than a goal a game, and Bologna have scored three goals in five league games. That is the whole case for a quiet night in Lecce. Lecce have won five, tied two and lost eight of their last 15 games, and their games bring just over 2 goals in total on average. Only 6 of those last 15 had 3 or more goals, so low totals are normal for them. Bologna are even quieter. They score less than a goal a game, their last five results read tie, loss, tie, loss, loss, and three of their defeats have finished 0-1. Both attacks are short of bodies as well. Holm and Odgaard are out for Bologna with Dovbyk and Mbangula doubtful, and Lecce are without Berisha and Stulic. Add three weeks off for both sides and a careful start looks far more likely than an open one. A 0-1 Bologna win is the honest read, and one goal clears this with room to spare. The risk sits with Lecce at their own ground. They have produced a 3-2 there in this run, so they can turn a tight game into a mess. Bologna also let in more than a goal a game. We still want the quiet game here.

💬 Nice games are not fun to watch, and that is exactly what we want. Their games bring almost 2 goals in total on average, and only 5 of their last 15 had 3 or more goals. Nice have not lost at the Allianz Riviera in seven, with two wins and five ties, and they let in less than a goal a game there. They score less than a goal a game themselves, so they smother games rather than win them. Strasbourg are the opposite. They score more than a goal a game and 9 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. That record leans heavily on a 6-2 and a 0-4 inside their last six games, so it is wild rather than normal. They are also without striker Panichelli. The last 18 meetings between these two average just over 2 goals, and the slower side usually sets the tempo. Nice are missing four players too, so they will not suddenly open up. A 1-1 is the honest read, and two goals sits comfortably inside this pick. The risk is real though. Strasbourg let in almost 2 goals a game on the road, and Nice have been a bit lucky at the back. If this turns into an open game, the goals will come. The low scoring read is still the one we trust.

💬 This game has become the same story over and over. Four of the last five meetings between these two finished 1-1, and across 12 meetings they average under 2 goals a game. Palace have also avoided defeat in nine of those 12, so the tie is by far the most common result here. Palace have been up and down, with five wins, four ties and six losses in their last 15 games. They let in more than a goal a game, and they now have to find goals without Mateta, who is injured, and with Disasi suspended. Forest are no more dangerous. They have won two, tied four and lost five of their last 11 games. They manage about a goal a game, and they have won by 2 or more goals just once in that run. Forest are also happy to keep games tight, so expect a slow afternoon with few clear chances at Selhurst Park. Both sides come back from three weeks off, which usually means caution rather than open football. A 1-1 is the honest read, and that keeps Palace on the right side of this one. The warning is simple. Forest have been better on the road than at home this season, and they have won three of the last 12 meetings. A Forest win is the result we need to avoid, but the pattern of these games says they rarely get one.

💬 Hull have turned their own ground into a hard place to visit. They are unbeaten in six games at the MKM Stadium, with three wins and three ties, and they have let in just two goals across the whole run. That is the main reason we want them here. Hull have lost only three of their last 14 games overall and they let in less than a goal a game. Their games bring 2 goals in total on average. Everton arrive in the same mood. They have four wins, five ties and four losses in their last 13, and their last three games finished 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0. They have won by 2 or more goals only twice in those 13, so they do not blow teams away. Put two careful sides together and clear chances should be rare. Both teams have had 22 days off, which rarely makes for a wild game. A 1-0 Hull win, most likely from a set piece or a quick break, is the honest read, and that lands this pick. The worry is the team sheet. Hull have six players ruled out and four more doubtful, so nobody is sure what their side looks like. Everton have no confirmed absences and have not lost in five, so one moment could flip this. Hull's home record is still the thing we trust most here.

💬 Köln do not beat anyone by much. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 16 games, and they now play this derby without both of their centre forwards. Ache and Dallinga are out, which leaves Bülter leading the line. Köln have won only three of those last 16 games and they let in more than 2 goals a game. They have also scored exactly one goal in three of their four league games. Gladbach are in a bad place. They sit bottom of the league with no points from four games and they have let in 16 goals in those four. They do keep scoring though, more than a goal a game, and 8 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals. Alexander Blessin takes charge for the first time here, which gives a broken side a fresh start. The derby itself backs the away team. Gladbach have won nine of the last 20 meetings to Köln's seven, and the last five finished 3-3, 1-3, 3-3, 3-1 and 0-0. An open 2-2 is the honest read, and that is the sort of result this pick is built on. The risk is obvious. Gladbach have lost four in a row and their defending has been a mess, so a Köln win by 2 is live. We still back Gladbach to come away from this derby without losing.

💬 Neither of these teams can score, and that is the whole case here. Rio Ave manage under a goal a game and have won only 3 of their last 15. Their last four outings brought almost nothing going forward. Nacional are in worse shape. They have lost five games in a row, they score 1 goal a game, and they barely score at all on their travels. They are also down to the bare bones. Liziero, Filipe Soares, Wesley Gasolina, Ulisses Wilson and Leo Santos are all out, and Matheus Dias is suspended after his red card against Famalicao. A patched up side on a five game losing run is not about to start trading goals. The history backs it up. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals a game, and nine of them were tied. These two sit 15th and 16th on four points each, so losing is the bigger fear for both. They have been idle for three weeks, which rarely makes for an open game. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that is exactly the game we want. The worry is Rio Ave at the back. They let in almost 2 goals a game and they have a new head coach, so their shape is still unclear. One loose spell could turn this into a scrappy three goal night. Even so, two sides this blunt should keep the goals down.

💬 Rennes win at home, but they win small, and that is what this pick is built on. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 1 of their last 12 games. They have won six of those 12 by exactly one goal. Rennes are strong on their own ground, with five wins and a tie from six games there. They score 2 goals a game at Roazhon Park and let in just over one, so they take control without burying anyone. Auxerre arrive in better form than their league place suggests. They have just beaten Nice and Brest back to back, and they score more than a goal a game. A team that keeps scoring usually stays in touch. The meetings between these two have been close as well. The last 11 gave Rennes 4 wins, with 4 ties and 3 for Auxerre, averaging just over 2 goals a game. Auxerre do have a long absentee list, with six players injured and Makosso suspended. A 2-1 Rennes win is the honest read, and Auxerre staying within a goal is exactly the shape we want. The risk sits in the away defending. Auxerre let in more than 2 goals a game on the road, and they were beaten 5-2 at Lens and 3-1 at Lyon this season. A heavy night is clearly in their range. We still back Auxerre to keep this close, because Rennes simply do not win games by big margins.

💬 Liverpool have no centre forward fit, and that shapes this whole game. Isak, Gakpo and Ekitike are all out or major doubts, and Chiesa is a worry too. Wirtz or Barcola through the middle is the likely fix, and neither is a natural number nine. A side improvising up front rarely runs up a big score. Liverpool have been hard to beat at Anfield, with six wins, four ties and two losses there, letting in just over a goal a game. Their recent run has been tight at the back and blunt in front of goal. City are the better side right now. They sit top of the league on five straight wins, and they let in only 1 goal a game in their away games. They tend to take hold of a game rather than trade punches, and Foden is serving the last of his ban. Both teams come back from three weeks away from club football, and rust slows these nights down. A 1-2 City win is the honest read, and we want the night to stay in that low-scoring range or quieter rather than open up. The warning is the history. City have won the last three meetings 4-0, 2-1 and 3-0, and the last 20 games between these two averaged just over 3 goals a game. City score more than 2 goals a game, so they can put a night out of sight. With Liverpool short of forwards, we still want the quieter game.

💬 Freiburg games are rarely quiet, and that is the simplest reason this is on. 14 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and their games bring almost 4 goals in total on average. Freiburg sit third and they are flying at the Europa Park Stadion. They have won six of their eight home games, scoring almost 3 goals a game there and letting in just over one. They have also won by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 16, so they do not just sneak past teams. Schalke have been stubborn this season, but their away games have been busier. Their two top division trips brought a 3-1 win at Union Berlin and a 0-3 defeat at Augsburg. They let in 2 goals a game in their away games. They are short of bodies too, with Hojlund, Ljubicic and Siebeking all out and Lasme doubtful. Most of Schalke's better numbers come from second division and cup games, so their real level here is unclear. Put a strong home attack against a side that leaks on the road and a 3-1 Freiburg win looks right. That is four goals, comfortably enough. The caution is Schalke's stubborn streak. They let in just over a goal a game overall and they held Bayern to 0-0, so they can make this a slog. If they sit deep and Freiburg waste chances, the goals may not arrive. We still want goals here, because Freiburg games keep delivering them.

💬 Milan do not win games by big margins. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16. Sassuolo have not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 14. Put those two habits together and a one sided scoreline here looks unlikely. Sassuolo are a different team at the Mapei. They have won 5, tied 1 and lost 1 of their seven home games, scoring just over 2 goals a game. That run includes a 3-2 win over Juventus and a 2-1 over Torino, so good sides have come here and lost. Milan are short of goals on the road. They manage a goal a game across their eight away trips and just over a goal a game overall. This is a team that grinds out a 1-1 at Juventus and a 2-2 at Lazio rather than putting anyone away. The history says the same. Sassuolo have 5 wins and 5 ties from the last 20 meetings. A 1-1 is the most likely score here, and that sort of tight game is exactly what we want. The worry is the Sassuolo team sheet. Idzes is out injured and more are missing in defence and midfield, which is where Milan will push. Milan also sit 5th with 11 points from 5 league games and a goal difference of plus 6. We still back Sassuolo to stay close.

💬 Son Moix has been close to a fortress. Across their last eight home games Mallorca have lost only one and let in just 3 goals in total. Las Palmas are the kind of open away side that gets picked off in a place like that. Mallorca score almost 2 goals a game at home, and the shape of those wins matters. They have come by 2-0, 2-0 and 3-0. This is a side that turns a lead into a second goal rather than hanging on to a single one. Las Palmas have the opposite habit away from home. They let in 2 goals a game across their eight road trips, including a 2-5 at Girona and a 2-3 at Eibar. They also arrive as the most injury hit squad in the division, with six men out or suspended. Puertas and Obeng are both gone for the long haul and Marvin Park is suspended. Mallorca have won 4 and tied 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two. A 2-0 home win looks the most likely score, and that is a clean result for us. Mallorca are not at full strength either. Salas and Roca are out and Mascarell is suspended. They have also only won by 2 or more in 5 of their last 16 games, so the margin is the honest question. We still think the home side have too much here.

💬 Betis win games, but they do not win them by much. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 11 games. Eight of those wins came by exactly one goal, so the margin is the whole story here. Betis have won all five home games at the Cartuja and let in under a goal a game there. Three of those wins finished 1-0. This is a side that takes control and then sees a game out, not one that runs up a score. Osasuna are the weaker team by a long way. They have won once in six away games, let in more than 2 goals a trip, and barely score a goal a game. Del Castillo, Herrando and Moro are all out with muscle problems. Even so, Osasuna have lost by 2 or more in only 3 of their last 15 games. The most likely single score is a 2-0 Betis win, and that would beat this bet. Betis have not managed a 2 goal win in 11 games though, so a 1-0 or a 2-1 is just as live. The danger is plain. Osasuna let in four at Atletico Madrid and five at Alaves on recent trips, so a heavy night is possible. Betis will probably win this, but we want Osasuna still in it at the end.

💬 Vitória SC have been the weakest side in the league on the road, and that is the heart of this pick. They have lost each of their last five away games, and they let in more than 2 goals a game on those trips. They barely score anywhere, under a goal a game across the whole season. Benfica are the opposite. They score almost 3 goals a game and have won 11 of their last 17. They have won by 2 or more goals in 10 of those games. The gap between these two has been one sided. Benfica have won the last three meetings 3-0, and they have not lost to Vitória SC in 20 games, winning 14 of them. Both teams have had 21 days off, so Benfica should start fresh and on the front foot. A controlled 2-0 is the honest read, with Benfica ahead before the break and a second goal as Vitória SC chase late. What this pick wants is a clear win, not a tight 2-1. That is the worry. Benfica's two home league games this season finished 3-1 and 2-1, so they have let in a goal in both. Their biggest wins all came away from the Luz. They are also without five senior players, and Lenglet is banned after his red card. We still want Benfica to win this comfortably.

💬 Juventus own this game, and that is the simplest reason to back them. They have won 15 of the last 20 meetings with Cagliari, and they bring the better defence. Juventus let in under a goal a game and have lost only 2 of their last 13. Cagliari make games small. Their games have 2 goals in them on average, and they have not won by 2 or more in any of their last 16. They score 1 goal a game and let in 1. That points to a quiet, tight night rather than an open one, and a tight game suits the better team. The catch is the Juventus team sheet. Yildiz, Thuram, Locatelli and Milik are all out, so most of the first choice attack is missing. Goalkeeper Grabara is out too. A 0-1 Juventus win is the honest read, decided by one goal from whoever steps in. Cagliari are no pushovers. They sit 4th on 12 points from 5 games, two points above Juventus. Their tight home games also tend to break one way or the other. If this one breaks their way, the pick is gone. We still think Juventus have enough in them to take it.

💬 This game has a long history of being shut down, and that is the main reason we are on the low side. The last 11 meetings between these two averaged under 2 goals a game, and barely a third of them had 3 or more goals. Cadiz keep it that way at their own ground. They have let in under a goal a game across seven home games. They score just over a goal there, so their games stay quiet. Sporting Gijon arrive with their attack picked apart. Juan Otero, Konrad de la Fuente and Antonio Casas are all missing up front, along with Nacho Martín and Iosifov. Ferrari and Guillamón are doubtful. That is a lot of goals to replace. Gijon sit 8th on 13 points and have won four of seven away games, so they are happy to keep a game slow. A goal each is the most likely ending, and a 1-1 is exactly what this pick wants. The honest worry is that Cadiz are not as solid as their home record looks. They are 19th and in the relegation places on 7 points. Gijon also score almost 2 goals a game on the road, better than they manage at home. One early goal would change the whole shape. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Valencia are the reason this one stays low. They have scored once or not at all in five of their last seven games, and they score just over a goal a game. Their attack is also stripped out. Sadiq, Canós and D. Lopez are out, and Danjuma, Rioja and Foulquier are all doubtful. That leaves very little to choose from. Valencia are 19th on 4 points from 7 games with a goal difference of minus 9. Racing will have the ball and the better chances. They have won 7 of their last 14 and score more than 2 goals a game, so they should get in front. That is also where the problem sits. Racing's games are usually loud, and 11 of their last 14 had 3 or more goals. They let in 2 goals a game themselves, so they shut nobody out. Racing have not lost at El Sardinero in the top flight either, and they scored at least twice in each of those games. A 2-1 Racing win is the honest read, and anything busier than that beats us. We need Valencia to stay as blunt as they have been, and their recent games and their team sheet both point that way. The low side is still where we want to be.

💬 Arouca at home is the backbone of this pick. They have 5 wins, 1 tie and 1 loss at their own ground. They score more than 2 goals a game there and let in just over one. Estrela's away games are wide open. They have let in at least 2 goals in each of their last five away games. They have won only 2 of their last 11 games, and they have not won by 2 or more in any of them. The game should be open. Estrela have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 11, and every away trip has been end to end. That suits the home side, because Arouca have the better defence and let in just over a goal a game. A 2-1 Arouca win is the honest read, and that is exactly the kind of result we want here. Two things could beat us. Estrela tie a lot, six of their 11 games, and they have scored at least twice in every away game. That makes a 2-2 live. Arouca also have a brand new manager. Vítor Severino was appointed on 4 October, and this is his first game and his first job as a head coach anywhere. We are still backing Arouca to win it.