Real Madrid vs Villarreal — Tips & Analysis

Over 3.5: Villarreal bring goals with them wherever they go, and that is the heart of this one. Their games have had almost 4 goals in total on average, and 12 of their last 16 had 3 or more. Real Madrid are happy to join in. They have won all seven of their home games, scoring just over 3 goals a game in them. They score more than 2 a game overall and let in a goal a game. Their defense is also in pieces right now. Centre backs Asencio, Militao and Huijsen are all out, and so is Mendy, so the back line will be thrown together. Villarreal can punish that. They score more than 2 goals a game themselves, and they have kept making plenty of chances over their last five. They have won their last two, 3-1 against Levante and 3-1 away at Malaga, so they arrive scoring freely. The history backs the busy game as well. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 3 goals in total, including a 4-4. A 3-1 to Madrid is the likely read, and four goals in a game is exactly what we want. The caution is that Madrid's injury list cuts both ways. Rodrygo is out too, so a patched up Madrid side might choose to control this rather than chase it. We still expect plenty of goals.