Sunderland vs Brighton — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: These two keep serving up tight, low scoring games, and that is the heart of this pick. The last three meetings produced 0-1, 0-0 and 0-1, which is well under a goal in total on average, and none of them went past 2 goals. Sunderland are the main reason why. They barely score at the Stadium of Light, under a goal a game across nine home games, and they let in 1 a game there. They lose striker Brobbey and Diarra for this one, with Ballard and Mundle out as well, so help is thin. Only 7 of their last 17 games have had 3 or more goals. Brighton have problems of their own in front of goal. Mitoma, Minteh, Ferguson and Tzimas are all unavailable, with Wieffer and Azeez out too. Dunk and Hinshelwood are the only meaningful returns. Expect Brighton to be far better with the ball, Sunderland to be awkward to break down, and one goal to decide it. A 0-1 is the likely score, and that sits comfortably inside what we want. The risk is simple. Sunderland have been making plenty of chances over their last four games, and goals from that would change this fast. Brighton also beat Arsenal 3-0 with much the same thin squad, and 12 of their last 16 games have had 3 or more goals. We still want the low scoring game.