Genoa vs Fiorentina — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: These two have been playing out quiet, nervy games for years, and that is the heart of this one. 11 of the last 20 meetings ended level. Those games averaged just over 2 goals in total, and only 4 in 10 of them had 3 or more goals. The last five read 0-0, 2-2, 1-2, 0-1 and 1-1. Genoa cannot score. They are 19th with one point from five games and get under a goal a game. They have six players out, including forward Lorenzo Colombo, so help is thin. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 14 games. Fiorentina are better than 17th place suggests, but they have been fragile on their travels. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than a goal. Put two struggling sides together at the Ferraris and a slow, careful afternoon is the honest read. A 1-1 is the likely score, and that stays inside what we want. Two warnings. Fiorentina have been making plenty of chances over their last three games, and an early goal from them changes the shape of the game. Their own games have had almost 3 goals in total on average, so they are not always this quiet. We still want the low scoring game here.