Chelsea vs Bournemouth — Tips & Analysis

Bournemouth +1: Bournemouth do not get beaten heavily, and that is the whole case for keeping them close at Stamford Bridge. They have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of their last 15 games. Only two of those 15 ended in defeat at all, and they tied 7 of them. They are even tidier on the road, with four wins from seven away trips and just over a goal a game let in. Chelsea do not blow teams away either. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 14 games, and they have lost 6 of the 14. The last 19 meetings have averaged more than 2 goals in total. The last five produced 2-2, 0-0, 2-2, 1-0 and 2-1, which are close games rather than big wins. A 2-1 Chelsea win is the honest read here, and that is right at the limit of what this pick can take. What we need is Bournemouth within a goal at the final whistle, and their record says that is usually where they finish. The worry is Chelsea's team news. Caicedo, Reece James, Palmer and Joao Pedro are all back after the break, and only Gittens is ruled out. Chelsea score more than 2 goals a game at their own ground, with 2-2 against Hull, 4-3 against Brighton and 6-3 against Leeds in the cup. Bournemouth are also missing four forwards. We are still with Bournemouth to keep this tight.