1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — Tips & Analysis

Over 3.25: Hoffenheim games are almost never quiet, and that is the case for goals here. 12 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them, and their games have had almost 4 goals in total on average. They score more than a goal a game and let in more than 2, so they trade chances rather than shut games down. Hamburg are falling apart at the back. They have lost three of their last four league games, with two goals scored and thirteen let in. That run includes 0-5 at RB Leipzig and 0-5 at home to Mainz. On the road they have won 2, tied 1 and lost 5, and they let in more than 2 goals a game away from home. Their team news is bad too, with Patson Daka, Albert Gronbaek and Mario Vuskovic all out. Hamburg have also made very few chances of their own over their last three games, and they have given up plenty. The history points the same way, because the last 18 meetings averaged just over 3 goals in total. A 3-1 to Hoffenheim is the likely read, and four goals is exactly what we want. The honest part is Hoffenheim's own form. They have won once in their last five, losing 1-3 at Paderborn and 0-2 at OFI, and that second one was a quiet night. Hamburg also beat Koln 2-1 last time out, so they can still grind a game down. We still want the busy night.