Aston Villa vs Brentford — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: Brentford turn games into arm wrestles, and that is the base of this pick. They have tied 11 of their last 18 games and 6 of their 10 away trips, losing only twice on the road. Two thirds of their games have finished with 3 goals or fewer. They let in just over a goal a game and they squeeze the life out of a match rather than win it in style. Villa are missing the players who would stretch them. Onana, Maatsen and Pau Torres are all out through the middle and the left, with Bizot, Madjo and Goretzka unavailable too. Villa are 16th and have already lost two of four at Villa Park, 0-1 to Arsenal and 1-2 to Nottingham Forest. The history is the clincher. Four of the last five meetings finished 0-1, 1-1, 0-1 and 1-0, each with 2 goals or fewer. Expect a tight, low chance game where one moment goes each way and nobody finds a second goal. A 1-1 is the likely score, and two goals sits comfortably inside what we want. The risk is Villa's own habit of busy games. They score 2 goals a game and won 3-2 at Tottenham and 3-2 at Club Brugge inside their last five. 11 of their last 13 games have had 3 or more goals, so an early goal would change this quickly. We still want the quiet game.