Alaves vs Atletico Madrid — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: This game is almost always a grind, and that is the base of our pick. The last 18 meetings averaged just over 2 goals in total. The last four produced 1, 2, 0 and 3 goals, and two of the last five were goalless or had a single goal in them. Alaves sit sixth and are 5W-1D-3L at home, but they get there by making the pitch small. They have been creating very little over their last five games. They are also without Facundo Garces, who is suspended, and Koski and M. Rodriguez are both injured, so the squad is thinner than usual. Atletico have been the better side by a distance underneath, making far more chances than they give up. They score more than a goal a game and have won 9 of their last 16. That is a team who decides nights like this with one moment rather than a siege. Alaves have beaten Atletico twice in 18 tries, so expect them to sit deep and protect their box. A 0-1 to Atletico is the likely score, and one goal sits comfortably inside what we want. The honest worry is Atletico away from home, where results swing hard. A 0-3 at Athletic and a 1-5 at Villarreal came in their last eight trips, and 10 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. We still want the quieter game here.