Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans — Tips & Analysis

Under 4.25: PSG are not winning by big margins this season, and that is the heart of this one. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 18 games. They sit sixth, they lost 1-2 at home to Monaco and they tied 2-2 at Lille. They score 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal, so their games stay competitive. They are also resting Mendes and Dembele, with Mayulu injured, so this is not a full strength night. Le Mans are the other half of the case. They have lost just 1 of their last 12 games. More to the point, they have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of those 12. They score almost 2 goals a game. They have also scored in every Ligue 1 game they have played, including a 2-2 with Lens and a 2-1 win over Lorient. Their games average 3 goals in total, so they are not involved in many wild ones. A 2-1 home win is the read here, with Le Mans scoring and keeping the margin small. That lands comfortably on the right side of what we want. The worry is PSG at home. Their home games have averaged almost 4 goals, and they won the last three meetings 2-0, 4-0 and 4-1. We still think this one stays short of a goal rush.