Tips — Sunday, 25 October 2026

💬 Inter are without the man who scores their goals, and that is the main reason to expect fewer here. Lautaro Martinez is out with a thigh problem, and Pavard and Luis Henrique are missing too. Inter are still much the better team. They have won 9, tied 3 and lost 2 of their last 14 and they score more than 2 goals a game. Take out your first choice centre forward, though, and the goals get harder to find. Fiorentina will help keep this tight. They score just over a goal a game, they sit near the bottom, and they will drop deep at San Siro and play on the counter. They have been playing better lately than their league position suggests, so they are harder to break down than the table shows. The history points the same way. The last 20 meetings averaged 3 goals in total, and Inter have won 12 of them without many wild nights. Inter have had 4 days since a midweek European tie and Fiorentina have had 7, so a careful start is likely. Our read is a 2-1 Inter win, which is a comfortable result for this pick. The risk sits at the Inter end. They let in more than a goal a game at home and lost 3-4 to Club Brugge at San Siro in October. One of those nights beats us. We still want the quieter game.

💬 Sabadell have made their own ground a hard place to visit, and that is why we are with them. They are unbeaten in six games at Nova Creu Alta, with 5 wins and a tie. At home they score more than 2 goals a game and let in less than a goal a game. Across all games they have won 6, tied 4 and lost 3 of their last 13. Tenerife are the opposite on their travels. They have won just 1 of 7 away games and let in more than 2 goals a game on the road, and their defending has fallen apart before. They lost 0-5 at Castellon in September. Tenerife are also without a win in five and sit 14th in the table. Neither side is making many chances right now, so expect a patient, low-event afternoon rather than an open one. Both teams are fresh, with 7 days off for Sabadell and 6 for Tenerife, so this should be a controlled game. Our read is a 1-0 home win, and Sabadell only have to win the game for this to land. The honest worry is at the Sabadell end. Their games have 2 goals in total on average, and they have already played out a 0-0 at home in this run. If they cannot find the opener, the pick is gone. We still back Sabadell to get the goal that wins it.

💬 Athletic Club are not scoring, and that is the whole case for taking Getafe with a head start. Athletic score a goal a game and have won just 2 of their last 10. They have tied 4 of their last 5, so goals are hard to come by at San Mames. They are short of attackers too. Sancet and Guruzeta are out and Laporte is suspended after a red card. Getafe are no better going forward. They have won 4, tied 4 and lost 6 of their last 14 and they score less than a goal a game. Their job is to stay in the game, not win it. The history says they can. The last 20 meetings produced 11 ties and averaged just over 2 goals a game. Getafe have also lost by 2 or more in only 3 of their last 14, so heavy defeats are rare. Athletic have been wasteful in front of goal at home, so even their better days end with one goal. Our read is a 1-0 Athletic win. That sits right on the limit of this pick, so we want Getafe to take something from the game. A two-goal home win is what beats it. The worry is how Getafe travel. They have no win in six away games and barely score on the road. They also come in on 3 days of rest after letting in five at home to Lugano. We still think they keep this close enough.

💬 Bergamo is a quiet ground, and that is the heart of this pick. Atalanta's eight home games there have brought just over a goal of their own and less than a goal at the other end. Atalanta are also stretched thin. Seven players are listed out, four of them defenders, including Hien, Kolasinac and Scalvini. They played in Amsterdam on Thursday and have had only 3 days of rest, against 9 days for Frosinone. A tired team with a patched-up back line does not chase a game at pace. Atalanta have won 6, tied 3 and lost 7 of their last 16. They score just over a goal a game, so the big home scores are not there anyway. Frosinone are the better team at the moment. They have won 9, tied 3 and lost 2 of their last 14 and they let in less than a goal a game. On the road they have 3 wins, 2 ties and a loss, scoring just over a goal a game and letting in one. That is a team that controls games rather than one that trades goals. Our read is a narrow 1-2 Frosinone win, and a three-goal game is well inside what we want. The risk is in the history. The last 6 meetings averaged just over 3 goals. Frosinone have also been letting teams get closer to their goal than their record shows. We still want the contained game.

💬 Genoa cannot score, and that is the heart of this one. They get under a goal a game and have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 14. They have won only 3 of those 14 games, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. Genoa have won just 3 of their 8 home games, so the Ferraris has not been a fortress either. Venezia are 20th and have lost four of their last five, so this is no vote of faith in them. They do score more than Genoa, though, at more than a goal a game. They are missing their main striker Adorante, plus defenders Correia and Franjic. Both teams have had a full 8 days to get ready. This is a bottom-three scrap where a loss really hurts, and neither side will take big risks for a winner. The likeliest finish is a nervous 1-1, with each side taking one chance, and that sits on the right side for us. The warning is simple. Venezia have been in wild games lately, with their last five producing 1, 4, 2, 6 and 5 goals. They have also won one of seven away trips. If Genoa find one of their rare good days in front of goal, we are beaten. We still think Venezia leave here with something.

💬 Lille have Monaco's number, and that is where this pick starts. They have won each of the last three meetings between the two, and Monaco did not score in three of the last four. Lille also travel well. They have taken 4 wins from 6 away games and let in under a goal a game on the road. Monaco are the stronger side on paper, with 8 wins from their last 13 and 2 goals a game. At home they have 4 wins, 1 tie and 1 loss, so this is not an easy trip. The thing is, Monaco have gone cold in front of goal. Their last four games brought far fewer chances than their scoring record suggests. They are also back on only 3 days' rest after a Thursday night in Europe, which points to changes. Lille have had 4 days. Both teams sit level on 14 points, and the last 19 meetings have averaged under 3 goals in total. A tight 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that result works for us. The doubts are fair ones. Lille are missing both their forwards, Igamane and Ueda, they score only a goal a game away, and they come in off a 2-4 loss to Galatasaray. Monaco score more than 2 goals a game at home, and that would beat us. We are still backing Lille to come away unbeaten.

💬 Hull do not get beaten heavily, and that is the simplest case for backing them here. They have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of their last 14 games. Brentford do not hand out beatings either, winning by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 18. Hull are hard to break down at the MKM. They are unbeaten in six at home, with 3 wins and 3 ties, and they have let in just 3 goals across that home run. Their games are quiet as well, averaging under 2 goals in total. Brentford tie a lot of games. They have tied 10 of their last 18 games, including five of their nine away trips. They also come in short of bodies in midfield. Janelt and Yarmolyuk are both suspended after red cards, and three more are out. Both teams have had 8 days to prepare, so expect a tight game with few clear chances and one set-piece at each end. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that is comfortably on our side. The one worry is Hull's own injury list, with seven players out including goalkeeper Butland and four midfielders. We are still happy to back Hull to stay close here.

💬 Brighton are the better team right now, and that is why we want them here. They have won their last four league games, they sit third, and they have won 9 of their last 16. They also let in under a goal a game. Liverpool are a different story at home. They have let in more than a goal a game across their eleven home games. This month alone they let in three at home to Manchester City and three more to Villarreal. Their attack is short too, with Szoboszlai and Ekitike out along with full-backs Bradley and Frimpong. Brighton score more than 2 goals a game. They have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 16, so they can hurt a back line like this. These two also tend to produce open games. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 3 goals. Put that together and a 2-2 is the likeliest finish, which lands on the right side for us. There are real reasons for caution. Brighton played in Jablonec on Thursday and have only 3 days' rest to Liverpool's 5, and Mitoma, Minteh and Ferguson are all out of their front line. Brighton's away record is also just 3 wins, 2 ties and 3 losses. We still think they leave Anfield with something.

💬 Manchester United cannot win a game right now, and that is the case for backing Bournemouth to leave Old Trafford with something. United have tied four of their last five league games and have not won in the league since August. They sit 15th on seven points and have won only 4 of their last 14 games. The bigger problem is their attack. United have not been making many chances, and they let in more than a goal a game across their last five. They are also without Shaw, Ugarte, Mainoo, Sesko and Dorgu, with Martinez and Rashford doubtful. Bournemouth arrive in good form. They have won 7 of their last 15 games and have been beaten by 2 or more goals only once in that run. They also beat AC Milan 3-0 this month and let in just over a goal a game. This has the feel of a cagey, even game that neither side can afford to lose. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that result is on the right side for us. The caution here is Bournemouth's travelling. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 ties and 2 losses, and they let in almost 2 goals a game on the road. United have also won 10 of the last 19 meetings between these two. We are still with Bournemouth to avoid defeat.

💬 Both of these teams play in high scoring games, and that is the first reason we want goals here. 13 of Hoffenheim's last 15 games had 3 or more goals. Their games average almost 4 goals in total, they score almost 2 a game and they let in almost 2 a game. Across their last eight home games they have let in almost 2 a game as well, so they trade chances rather than control them. Leverkusen have won their last five, with a 4-0 at Lech Poznan and a 4-3 at Mainz in that run. They score more than 2 goals a game, and they have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 12. The history between these two backs it up. The last 20 meetings averaged more than 3 goals, and 8 in every 10 of them had 3 or more. Both sides played on Thursday night and come back on 3 days' rest, which tends to loosen a midfield rather than tighten it. A 1-3 Leverkusen win is the likeliest finish, and 4 goals clears what we need. Hoffenheim should get on the board, and the game stretches once they push men forward. The honest worry is team news. Leverkusen have five players out, headed by forwards Ben Seghir and Doue, and Hoffenheim won the last two meetings 1-0 and 2-1. We still want the busy game.

💬 Cadiz have been hard to score against at home, and that is the base for this pick. They have let in under a goal a game across their last seven home games. They do not score much either, just over a goal a game, so we are backing a narrow win rather than a comfortable one. Ceuta are the reason it should still land. They sit 21st on 5 points from 10 games with a goal difference of -13, and they let in almost 2 goals a game. Away from home it is worse. Ceuta have let in more than 2 a game on the road, with a 0-3 at Mallorca and a 1-5 at FC Andorra in that run. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 15. Both teams have had a full 7 days to get ready, so there are no tired legs to blame. A 1-0 Cadiz win is the likeliest finish, and they simply need to win this. One set piece or one mistake should decide it. The clear warning is the recent history. Ceuta have won three of the four most recent meetings between these clubs, so this is a bad match up for Cadiz. Two sides this close to the bottom can also produce a nervy, open game instead of the controlled one we expect. We still think Cadiz find a way through.

💬 Celta rarely lose badly, and that is the whole case here. They have lost by 2 or more goals just once in their last 15 games. Their games average just over 2 goals in total, and only 6 of those 15 had 3 or more, so Balaidos is a grind. Celta score just over a goal a game and let in a goal a game, which is exactly the shape we want. Betis are the better side on paper. They sit 4th on 19 points from 9 games and they have won 9 of their last 12. The catch is how they win. Their goal difference is only +2, and they have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 12. The head to head says the same thing. Celta have tied seven of the last 20 meetings, and the last two both finished 1-1. A 1-1 tie looks like the likeliest finish again, and a point does the job for us. The risks are real and worth naming. Celta have five players out, including Borja Iglesias and Carl Starfelt, and they had only 3 days off after their trip to Celtic. Betis put five past Osasuna at home, so the ceiling is there when they click. We still expect Celta to stay in this one.

💬 Neither of these sides can score, and that is the simplest case for a quiet game. Estoril have not won in 16 games, with 5 ties and 11 losses in that run. They are bottom of the Primeira Liga on 2 points from 8 games with a goal difference of -8. They score under a goal a game, and across their last seven home games they have let in almost 2 a game. Only 6 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. Moreirense are not the side to punish that. They score under a goal a game too, and on the road they have won once in eight trips, scoring under a goal a game away. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 15. Put two blunt attacks together and the clear chances dry up. The 18 meetings between them averaged more than 2 goals, with under 4 in 10 producing 3 or more. A 0-1 away win is the likeliest finish, and one goal sits well inside what we want. The warnings are straightforward. A bottom club with nothing to lose can throw bodies forward late, and Estoril have tied 5 of those 16 games. This series has produced 3-3 and 2-2 ties before, so it can open up. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Lorient turn games into slow, controlled affairs, and that is the case for a low total here. They have won their last two by the same 1-0, against Monaco and Paris FC. Three of their last five games produced just one goal in total. They let in just over a goal a game, and only 6 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. Angers do not have the attack to change that. They score just 1 goal a game, and across their last eight home games it drops under a goal a game. They have won only 2 of their last 15 games, and their finishing has not matched the chances they make. The history fits as well. The 18 meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals, and only a third of them had 3 or more. Lorient have let in a goal a game on their travels, so they do not need an open game to win. A 0-1 Lorient win is the likeliest finish, and one goal keeps this exactly where we want it. The risk here is loud. Angers have let in five twice in their last three league games, 2-5 to Marseille and 1-5 at Brest, so they can come apart. Those two came against stronger attacks than this one, and Lorient are built to keep games small. We want the quiet game.

💬 Auxerre's games have been full of goals, and that is the main reason we want the busier game here. 10 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals in them. Auxerre score almost 2 goals a game and let in 2 goals a game, which is not the profile of a quiet side. They are also down six players, and the back line has been patched together. Le Mans are the tighter team and they tie a lot of games. They have tied 6 of their last 12 and score just over a goal a game. The thing is, Le Mans have stopped keeping it tight. Their last two results were a 0-3 home loss to Toulouse and a 1-3 loss at Paris Saint Germain. They are giving up far more chances than they create right now. That points to Auxerre leading, Le Mans getting one back through an opening, and the hosts holding on. A 2-1 home win is the most likely result, and that is enough for this bet. The warning is a real one though. Only 6 of Le Mans' last 12 games had 3 or more goals, so the quiet version of them is always possible. A 1-1 or a 1-0 would beat us. We still think Auxerre's leaky defending hands us the goals we need.

💬 Le Havre arrive bottom of Ligue 1 with a back line held together by whoever is fit, and that is the case for backing Marseille to win well. Six Le Havre players are listed out. Marseille are missing just one. Marseille are a different team at the Velodrome. They score 2 goals a game at home and let in just over one. Le Havre have 2 points from 7 games with a goal difference of minus 6, and their last five results read four losses and a tie. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. Marseille have also won all 7 of their last meetings with Le Havre, and those games averaged just over 4 goals. Put it together and a controlled 2-0 home win is the honest read. A two-goal win does the job for us. There are two worries. Marseille had only 3 days off after losing at Sturm Graz, and tired legs can turn a comfortable night into a nervy one. Le Havre have also been better away from home than at their own ground. They have lost by 2 or more goals only once in their last 12 games. That makes this closer than the table suggests, but we still want Marseille to win this clearly.

💬 Roazhon Park is the main reason we are backing Rennes here. They have won 5 and tied 1 of their six home games, scoring more than 2 goals a game and letting in just over one. That is a strong base, and Strasbourg arrive in poor shape. Strasbourg have lost three of their last five games. They are also without their main centre forward Panichelli, along with Nanasi, Balde and Doukoure. Strasbourg score almost 2 goals a game, but they let in almost 2 as well. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 14 games, which tells you how rarely they take control. Rennes have won 10 of the last 17 meetings between the two. Expect Rennes to carry the better quality, with Strasbourg getting a goal on the break. A 2-1 home win is the most likely result, and that does the job. The catch is energy. Rennes played at Juventus on Thursday and have had only 3 days off. Strasbourg have had 8. Rennes are also missing Lepaul, so the missing attackers are not all on one side, and tired legs could mean a flat home display. We still think Rennes have too much quality here.

💬 Neither of these teams can find a goal at the moment, and that is the simple case for the quieter game. Toulouse have barely managed a goal a game at their own ground, which is worse than their numbers on the road. They have tied 5 of their last 16 games and won by 2 or more goals just once in that run. This is not a side that blows games open. Troyes are in worse shape. They have lost five league games in a row and sit 17th with 4 points from 7 games and a goal difference of minus 11. Their last five games were all losses. They score just over a goal a game and create almost nothing right now. Away from home they let in more than a goal a game, so they are not falling apart either. Toulouse are unbeaten in their last 11 meetings with Troyes, 7 wins and 4 ties, and those games have stayed tight. A 1-0 home win is the most likely result, and that suits us well. Be careful though. 12 of Toulouse's last 16 games had 3 or more goals, so their own recent run argues the other way. If Troyes chase a goal late, this can open up fast. We still expect a low-scoring afternoon.

💬 The history of this game points straight at a quiet afternoon. The last 10 meetings between Sunderland and Leeds averaged under 2 goals, and 4 of them were ties. Sunderland are the main reason for that. They score less than a goal a game at the Stadium of Light and let in less than a goal a game there too. Only 6 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals in them. They are bottom of the table with 4 points from 7 games, and their last five league games read four losses and a tie. They are also without Ballard and the suspended Danso. A team in that spot defends first. Leeds are the steadier side, but they have been ordinary on the road, with 4 wins, 2 ties and 5 losses in 11 away games. Only 7 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals. Both teams are set up to keep this tight, and a 1-1 is the honest read. That is enough for us. The worry is a real one. Sunderland have had only 3 days off after their trip to Poland, and they have been giving up more chances lately than their results show. Leeds have also let in almost 2 goals a game away from home. We still want the low-scoring game here.

💬 Bayern have not lost in 15 games, and that is the floor under this pick. They score just over 3 goals a game and let in under a goal a game. They have won by 2 or more goals in 7 of those 15 games, and they have not lost by 2 or more once. Freiburg are the problem. They have won 7, tied 1 and lost 1 of their nine home games, and they score almost 3 goals a game at this ground. Freiburg are tired though. They have had only 3 days off after a 0-3 beating at Monaco, and they have not been creating much lately. The history here is one-sided. Freiburg have beaten Bayern once in their last 20 meetings and lost 15 of them, and those games averaged almost 4 goals. That is the shape we want, with Bayern scoring freely against a side that comes out to play. What we need is a two-goal Bayern win. The most likely single score is a 1-2, which is a goal short of that, so this is no free ride. Bayern also travel without Musiala, Luis Diaz, Kimmich and Kim Min-Jae. On the road they score 2 goals a game rather than the 4 they manage at home. We still back Bayern to win this by a clear margin.

💬 Castellón have turned their own ground into a hard place to score, and that is the heart of this one. They are unbeaten in six home games, with 3 wins and 3 ties, and they have let in less than a goal a game there. Three of those six home games finished level, so these are tight afternoons at Castalia. Castellón have won 9, tied 3 and lost 2 of their last 14 overall, and their games have had just over 2 goals in total on average. Sporting Gijon travel well. They have won 5 of their 7 away games and score more than a goal a game on the road. The catch is that they have not been creating much in their last five games, and that is below their usual level. Both sides come in on 8 days of rest, so neither should be stretched or loose. Put it together and a 1-0 home win looks the most likely result, with a single goal deciding a tight game. That is exactly the sort of low-scoring game we want. The warning is the history between these clubs. The last 6 meetings averaged almost 4 goals a game, so they have gone big before. Castellón's clean sheets also flatter them a little, because teams have been getting closer to their goal than the scoreline shows. We are still backing the quiet game.

💬 These two clubs have a long habit of playing out quiet games. Eight of their 13 meetings have been ties, and those games averaged under 2 goals each. That is the strongest reason to back a low-scoring night. Rio Ave do not create much. They score a goal a game, and they have won 4, tied 4 and lost 7 of their last 15. At their own ground they have won only 1 of 7, so they rarely get on top of anyone. Famalicao are even quieter. They have tied 7 of their last 14 games, and they score less than a goal a game. On the road they let in less than a goal a game. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 14. Neither side has the punch to pull away from the other. Rio Ave have had 8 days since their last game and Famalicao 7, so both should start this one carefully. A 1-1 tie is our read, and that is exactly the sort of game we want. The risk sits with Rio Ave's home games. They have let in more than 2 goals a game there, and their recent home games produced a 3-2 win over Nacional and a 3-3 tie with Estrela. If this one turns loose early, the whole case goes. We are still backing the quiet game.

💬 Udinese are in free fall, and that is the simplest reason to back Milan here. Udinese have lost 5 Serie A games in a row, and they have won 4, tied 1 and lost 7 of their last 12. At their own ground they score less than a goal a game, so they rarely make life hard for a decent team. Milan travel well. They have 4 wins and 3 ties in their last 9 away games. On the road they score more than a goal a game and let in just over one. They have also won 7 and tied 4 of their last 16. The catch is how Milan arrive. They have had only 3 days since a 0-3 Europa League loss at Bournemouth, and six players are listed out, including Rabiot and Saelemaekers. Udinese have had 7 days. So this will not be easy for Milan. A 1-2 Milan win is our read, with Udinese getting one at some point without ever looking like taking a point. That result does the job for us. The worry is the tired legs and the changes Milan might make after a heavy European night. Udinese have also won 6 of the last 20 meetings between these clubs, so they have taken results off Milan before. We still want Milan to win this.

💬 Real Madrid come into this without their two main wide forwards, and that is the first reason to expect fewer goals. Vinicius Junior is suspended and Rodrygo is injured, so Madrid have to find a new way through at Camp Nou. Their travelling form says that is hard work. Madrid score almost 2 goals a game on the road, well below the more than 3 a game they manage at home. Barcelona are the better side here and have won all 6 of their home games, scoring more than 4 a game at Camp Nou. Two things pull that back. Kounde, Christensen and Eric Garcia are all out, and that same back line let in four at Paris Saint Germain five days ago. Barcelona have also not been creating as many chances as their scoring suggests, so the big scores may dry up. Madrid let in just over a goal a game and will be happy to sit in and hit on the counter. Our read is a 2-1 Barcelona win, and a three-goal game sits comfortably inside what we want. The danger here is real. Three of the last five Clasicos produced five or more goals, including a 4-3 and two 3-2s. These two can trade punches once the game opens up. We still lean to the lower-scoring Clasico.

💬 Academico Viseu keep games quiet, and that is the base of this pick. They let in less than a goal a game and their matches have just over 2 goals in total on average. They are a tidy team on the road too, with 4 wins, 3 ties and 2 losses away from home, and they tied 2-2 at Benfica in August. Sporting are a far better side and should win this game. They have won 10, tied 4 and lost 2 of their last 16, and they score more than 2 goals a game. The timing is what caps the score. Sporting play on 4 days of rest after a 2-3 home loss to LASK Linz in Europe, and Viseu have had 7 days. Sporting have another cup tie days after this one, so changes to the starting eleven are likely. They have also won only 6 of their 10 home games in this run and let in more than a goal a game at Alvalade. They are not steamrolling visitors there. Put that together and a 2-1 home win is our read, which is a safe result for this one. The warning is Sporting at full strength. 13 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and a weaker team can get picked apart early. If they name a strong front line, this could run away. We still want the tighter game.