Inter vs Fiorentina — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Inter are without the man who scores their goals, and that is the main reason to expect fewer here. Lautaro Martinez is out with a thigh problem, and Pavard and Luis Henrique are missing too. Inter are still much the better team. They have won 9, tied 3 and lost 2 of their last 14 and they score more than 2 goals a game. Take out your first choice centre forward, though, and the goals get harder to find. Fiorentina will help keep this tight. They score just over a goal a game, they sit near the bottom, and they will drop deep at San Siro and play on the counter. They have been playing better lately than their league position suggests, so they are harder to break down than the table shows. The history points the same way. The last 20 meetings averaged 3 goals in total, and Inter have won 12 of them without many wild nights. Inter have had 4 days since a midweek European tie and Fiorentina have had 7, so a careful start is likely. Our read is a 2-1 Inter win, which is a comfortable result for this pick. The risk sits at the Inter end. They let in more than a goal a game at home and lost 3-4 to Club Brugge at San Siro in October. One of those nights beats us. We still want the quieter game.