Castellón vs Sporting Gijon — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: Castellón have turned their own ground into a hard place to score, and that is the heart of this one. They are unbeaten in six home games, with 3 wins and 3 ties, and they have let in less than a goal a game there. Three of those six home games finished level, so these are tight afternoons at Castalia. Castellón have won 9, tied 3 and lost 2 of their last 14 overall, and their games have had just over 2 goals in total on average. Sporting Gijon travel well. They have won 5 of their 7 away games and score more than a goal a game on the road. The catch is that they have not been creating much in their last five games, and that is below their usual level. Both sides come in on 8 days of rest, so neither should be stretched or loose. Put it together and a 1-0 home win looks the most likely result, with a single goal deciding a tight game. That is exactly the sort of low-scoring game we want. The warning is the history between these clubs. The last 6 meetings averaged almost 4 goals a game, so they have gone big before. Castellón's clean sheets also flatter them a little, because teams have been getting closer to their goal than the scoreline shows. We are still backing the quiet game.