Udinese vs AC Milan — Tips & Analysis

AC Milan -0.5: Udinese are in free fall, and that is the simplest reason to back Milan here. Udinese have lost 5 Serie A games in a row, and they have won 4, tied 1 and lost 7 of their last 12. At their own ground they score less than a goal a game, so they rarely make life hard for a decent team. Milan travel well. They have 4 wins and 3 ties in their last 9 away games. On the road they score more than a goal a game and let in just over one. They have also won 7 and tied 4 of their last 16. The catch is how Milan arrive. They have had only 3 days since a 0-3 Europa League loss at Bournemouth, and six players are listed out, including Rabiot and Saelemaekers. Udinese have had 7 days. So this will not be easy for Milan. A 1-2 Milan win is our read, with Udinese getting one at some point without ever looking like taking a point. That result does the job for us. The worry is the tired legs and the changes Milan might make after a heavy European night. Udinese have also won 6 of the last 20 meetings between these clubs, so they have taken results off Milan before. We still want Milan to win this.