Atalanta vs Frosinone — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Bergamo is a quiet ground, and that is the heart of this pick. Atalanta's eight home games there have brought just over a goal of their own and less than a goal at the other end. Atalanta are also stretched thin. Seven players are listed out, four of them defenders, including Hien, Kolasinac and Scalvini. They played in Amsterdam on Thursday and have had only 3 days of rest, against 9 days for Frosinone. A tired team with a patched-up back line does not chase a game at pace. Atalanta have won 6, tied 3 and lost 7 of their last 16. They score just over a goal a game, so the big home scores are not there anyway. Frosinone are the better team at the moment. They have won 9, tied 3 and lost 2 of their last 14 and they let in less than a goal a game. On the road they have 3 wins, 2 ties and a loss, scoring just over a goal a game and letting in one. That is a team that controls games rather than one that trades goals. Our read is a narrow 1-2 Frosinone win, and a three-goal game is well inside what we want. The risk is in the history. The last 6 meetings averaged just over 3 goals. Frosinone have also been letting teams get closer to their goal than their record shows. We still want the contained game.