Estoril vs Moreirense — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Neither of these sides can score, and that is the simplest case for a quiet game. Estoril have not won in 16 games, with 5 ties and 11 losses in that run. They are bottom of the Primeira Liga on 2 points from 8 games with a goal difference of -8. They score under a goal a game, and across their last seven home games they have let in almost 2 a game. Only 6 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. Moreirense are not the side to punish that. They score under a goal a game too, and on the road they have won once in eight trips, scoring under a goal a game away. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 15. Put two blunt attacks together and the clear chances dry up. The 18 meetings between them averaged more than 2 goals, with under 4 in 10 producing 3 or more. A 0-1 away win is the likeliest finish, and one goal sits well inside what we want. The warnings are straightforward. A bottom club with nothing to lose can throw bodies forward late, and Estoril have tied 5 of those 16 games. This series has produced 3-3 and 2-2 ties before, so it can open up. We still want the low scoring game.