Tips — Saturday, 24 October 2026

💬 Goals follow this game around. The last 20 meetings between these two averaged just over 3 goals, and 7 in every 10 had 3 or more. City arrive top of the league on five straight wins and their games are wild right now. They score more than 2 goals a game and 12 of their last 17 had 3 or more goals. They beat Ipswich 3-2, beat Sunderland 5-3 and lost 2-4 to PSG. Haaland trained fully after limping off against Ipswich and is fit to start. Villa are not quite as good as their numbers look, because the 6-0 and 3-1 came in Europe against Fenerbahce and Viking. In the league they are twelfth on eight points. They still attack though, and 10 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. Villa are missing Onana, Ruggeri and Wan-Bissaka and have had only three days off. They have also won three of the last five against City, so they will go at them rather than sit in. Here is the honest part. The single most likely score is a 1-2 City win, and we want more from the afternoon than that. City's away games have been their quiet ones, letting in less than a goal a game on the road. If they do that again this stays low. We think Villa Park opens up and we are on the goals.

💬 Charlton are hard to beat at The Valley and Norwich are falling apart. Charlton have not lost in their last five home games, going 2W-3D-0L and letting in just two goals in those five. They do not score much either, and their last four home games have produced only three goals in total. They do not give much away either. That is the kind of home side that keeps a game to one goal. Norwich are 21st and have lost five in a row. They have scored once in their last three league games and they create almost nothing at the moment. They are short of bodies too, missing McLean, Toure, Ahmed and Diallo, with Crnac rested and Kovacevic concussed. Both teams have had a full week off, so neither has a tiredness excuse. This has the shape of a tense, slow afternoon that one goal decides, and a 1-0 to Charlton is the most likely finish. That lands our pick. The worry is the history. Charlton have won only one of the last six meetings with Norwich and lost the last two 0-1 and 0-1. Charlton are also short of goals, and Godden and Chalobah are both doubtful in an attack that was already blunt. We still want Charlton to keep this one tight.

💬 Derby turn up at Bramall Lane with a back line picked from whoever is fit. They have eight players out, including first choice goalkeeper Jacob Widell Zetterstrom, striker Patrick Agyemang and centre back Eiran Cashin. Three centre backs and three left backs are missing. Sheffield United are only without Seriki and Shackleton. Sheffield United are not a free scoring side. They score just over a goal a game and have won 6 of their last 14. They do not need much more than that here. Derby are 23rd on 6 points from 11 games with a goal difference of minus 11. They score a goal a game and let in almost 2. They have scored once or fewer in eight of their last ten. This matchup has been one way traffic for years. Sheffield United have won 9 of the last 13 meetings. Expect Derby to sit deep and stay in it for a long spell before the game drifts away from them. A 2-0 home win looks the most likely finish, with a goal either side of half time. The worry is Sheffield United's own output, which has been thin lately. A 1-0 or a 1-1 is live if the patched up Derby defence holds, and Derby travel better than they play at home. We still think the home side have too much for this Derby team.

💬 Vallecas has become a hard place to take anything from. Rayo have not lost in their last six home games, winning three and tying three, and they let in less than a goal a game there. Elche turn up with almost nothing going forward. Their last two games both finished 0-0, at Villarreal and at home to Celta Vigo, and they have barely created a chance across their last five. Rayo have won 6, tied 6 and lost 4 of their last 16. They score just over a goal a game, so this is not a side that blows teams away. They do not have to be. Elche let in almost 2 goals a game, and they have been giving up far more good chances than those two clean sheets suggest. That is the gap we are backing. Expect a scrappy afternoon decided by one moment, a set piece or a scramble rather than an open exchange. A 1-0 Rayo win is the likeliest finish, and that is the shape we want. The risk is that Elche are built to frustrate rather than to lose. They have four ties in their last nine away games and six ties in their last 16. Rayo also come in on five days' rest to Elche's seven, without Luiz Felipe and Batalla. We are still backing Rayo to find the goal that decides it.

💬 Neither of these teams scores much, and together they produce even less. Their last 20 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals a game. Cagliari have made the tight win their whole identity. All nine of their wins in this run came by exactly one goal. They have not won by 2 or more in any of their last 16 games. They score a goal a game, and their own games average just over 2 goals in total. The Unipol Domus has given up a goal a game across their last nine home outings. Bologna arrive in worse shape going forward. They score less than a goal a game, and their trips have been no better. They have scored under a goal a game across their last seven away games, going 3W-0D-4L with no ties. They are also without Orsolini, Piccoli and Holm, which is the bulk of their first choice attack. Put that together and you get a slow game with few chances, decided by a single Cagliari goal. A 1-0 is the likeliest finish, and that is the kind of game we are backing. The caveat is that Cagliari were taken apart 0-4 at Monza last time out, so the floor is there. Their defence has also been giving up more good chances than their goals against suggest. We still expect a quiet night in Sardinia.

💬 Sassuolo lose plenty of games, but they rarely get taken apart. They have lost by 2 or more goals just once in their last 14. That is the heart of this one. Como are the better side and they know it. They have won 11 of their last 17, score just over 2 goals a game and let in a goal a game. At home they have 5 wins and 2 ties from their last seven. There is a catch, though. Como play this three days after a 4-1 Champions League win over Manchester United, and their attack is thinner than their scoring suggests. Jesus Rodriguez is out for a couple of months, Diao and Chalobah are unavailable, and Kean is doubtful. That leaves Douvikas to lead the line. Sassuolo have had eight days to get ready. They have no win in their last seven away games, but they keep scoring on the road. They found the net in each of their last four away league games. All of that points to a controlled Como win rather than a rout, with a 2-1 the likeliest finish. The risk is Kean. If he is fit and starts, Como's ceiling rises, and they have already won by 2 or more in 6 of their last 17. A rotated Como side against a team that keeps scoring is the game we want, so we will take Sassuolo to stay in touch.

💬 Goals follow both of these teams around, and that is why we want the busier game. 12 of Leipzig's last 14 games had 3 or more goals. 10 of Elversberg's last 12 did the same. Leipzig have won all six at their own ground and scored more than 3 goals a game doing it. How they arrive matters too. They played at Real Madrid three days ago and lost 1-4, two defenders are suspended, and changes are coming. Elversberg are no soft touch. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game, so they will have a go at this. Both teams have been giving up chances freely in recent weeks. A tired home back line against a side that attacks is how games get stretched. Here is the honest part. A 2-1 Leipzig win is the single most likely finish, and that would leave us short. We need the open, end to end game both teams keep producing, not a controlled afternoon. Elversberg are also much tamer on the road, scoring and letting in under 2 goals a game away from home. If Leipzig take an early lead and run the clock down, this gets quiet fast. We still want goals between two teams who rarely keep them out.

💬 Union Berlin have stopped scoring. They did not score in three of their last five games, including a 0-0 with Dortmund, and they have created almost nothing across their last four. Their last win was a 1-0 over Elversberg. That is the main reason we want fewer goals here. The head to head backs it up. The last 16 meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals in total. That is a quiet record for two teams who both play busy games elsewhere. Augsburg have not lost in their last six at home, but four of those six were ties. They score just over 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game, so they win these without running riot. Augsburg are also without Mounie and Banks, and Union miss Ilic, Markgraf and Nsoki. The likeliest finish is a 2-1 Augsburg win, with Union landing one punch rather than trading them. That is the shape we are backing. The risk is plain. Augsburg's games have been busy, with 11 of their last 14 producing 3 or more goals. Their defence has also been giving up far more good chances than their goals against suggest. Union also won the most recent meeting 4-0, so a big win is in this matchup's history. We still expect a tighter afternoon than that.

💬 Bremen arrive with most of a midfield missing, and that is the main reason we are with Mainz. Musah, N'Diaye, Alvero and Agu are all unavailable, so the visitors have to patch a side together. Mainz come in off a 1-0 win at Schalke and have won 6 of their last 11 games. They sit 5th on 10 points, three places and one point ahead of Bremen after six matches. Their recent run reads win, loss, win, loss, win, so they blow hot and cold, but they keep finding goals. Bremen are hard to beat rather than dangerous. They score just over a goal a game on their travels and have tied 4 of their last 13 games. The shape of this one looks clear. Mainz keep pushing at a patched up visiting team and find the room late on. A 2-1 home win is the most likely finish, and that is enough for our pick. The worry is real though. Mainz have no win in their last five games at their own ground, taking one tie and four defeats. They have also let in almost 3 goals a game through that run. If that version of Mainz turns up, this Bremen side have enough in them to take a point home. We still want Mainz to edge it.

💬 Köln have no recognised centre forward to pick. Dallinga is out with a cruciate ligament injury that will keep him out until about June 2027, and Ache has a thigh problem. Skhiri, Hübers and van den Berg are missing too. That is a lot of first team quality to replace at once. Köln have won 4, tied 6 and lost 6 of their last 16 games. They let in 2 goals a game, and they have won by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 16. This is not a side that steamrolls anyone right now. Schalke are no better going forward. They have created very little across their last three games and lost 0-1 at home to Mainz last time out. They are missing five players, including Wöber, Ljubicic, Schallenberg, Karaman and Sylla. They score just over a goal a game and let in about the same. Two sides short of a finisher usually serve up an edgy, even game, and 7 of the last 20 meetings ended level. A 1-1 looks the likeliest finish, with the opener answered and nobody finding a second. The honest warning is the history. Köln have won 10 of the last 20 meetings, and those games averaged almost 3 goals. If a makeshift Köln striker clicks, this gets away from us. We still want Schalke in this one.

💬 Paderborn have not been creating enough to win a game like this, and that is why Hamburg are our pick of the game. Over their last four games Paderborn have been well outplayed, even in the ones they came through. They have won 6 of their last 16 and tied 5, and they score and let in more than a goal a game at both ends. Paderborn are also short of bodies. Awortwie-Grant is out at the back, and Gayret and Batista Meier are missing from an attack that is already running dry. Hamburg have won their last three: 1-0 at home to Stuttgart, 3-2 at Hoffenheim and 2-1 at home to Koln. None of those were comfortable, and that is the point. This team keeps finding a way to get results in tight games. Expect a scrappy afternoon in Paderborn with few clear chances for either side. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and that suits our pick. The warning is Hamburg's record on the road. They score just over a goal a game away from home and let in more than 2, including a 0-5 at Leipzig and a 0-2 at Dortmund. If they turn up like that, Paderborn can nick it. We are happy to take Hamburg as the better side here.

💬 Fulham have not been winning on the road, and that is the main reason we are with Coventry here. They have taken one win from their last six away trips and score under a goal a game on those travels. This is 17th against 18th with one point between them, so it is a scrap between two struggling sides. Coventry have won 8 and tied 3 of their last 17 games, and they score almost 2 goals a game. They have beaten Fulham in both recorded meetings, 3-1 and 4-1, though both came in the Championship a few seasons ago. Fulham have won 5 of their last 14 and their games are usually quiet. Only 6 of those 14 produced 3 or more goals. There are real holes in this Coventry side too. They are without Haji Wright, Luke Woolfenden, Josh Eccles and Aurele Amenda. They have also barely created a goal's worth of chances a game across their last four. Fulham lose the suspended Ryan Sessegnon, so neither attack looks ready to take this game over. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and we are backing Coventry to avoid defeat. The worry is that Coventry's home form swings hard. They beat Newcastle 4-1 and lost 0-5 to Brighton inside a month, so a bad night is in them. We still trust them to stay in this one.

💬 Wrexham do not score when they travel, and that is the heart of this pick. They have scored less than a goal a game across nine away trips and won only 2 of them. They also arrive without Broadhead and Windass, two of their attacking options. Blackburn lost 2-3 at West Brom last time out. Even in the four unbeaten games before that, they were well outplayed. They create little, they give up plenty, and their own absentee list runs to five names. Neither side has been winning games by much. Blackburn have won by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 15 games, and they have not lost by 2 or more in any of them. Their games keep coming down to a single goal. Wrexham are much the same: 9 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals, so half of them stayed quiet. A 1-0 Blackburn win is the most likely finish, and a game like that is exactly what we want. The catch here is a big one. 12 of Blackburn's last 15 games had 3 or more goals, so this home side has been involved in plenty of them. If Blackburn get an early goal and Wrexham have to chase it, the quiet game disappears. We still expect a thin, low-chance night at Ewood Park.

💬 This game has been quiet for years, and that is the strongest reason we want the low-scoring night. The last 20 meetings produced just over 2 goals a game, and the last five went 1-0, 0-1, 3-1, 2-0 and 1-0. Birmingham are the reason to trust that pattern again. They have won 4 of their last 5 and tied the other, and they sit 4th on 20 points. They are the only Championship side with a perfect record since the international break. Three clean sheets in a row have carried that run, and two of them were 3-0 and 4-0 wins. Away from home they let in under a goal a game and score just over one, having won 4, tied 2 and lost 1 on their travels. They have also won by 2 or more only twice in their last 15 games. Cardiff are missing bodies at the back. Osho is suspended after a red card, and Colwill, Lawlor and Chambers are all out, with Fish expected to step in. A patched up defence tends to make a team careful rather than open. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and a game that tight is what we want. The risk is Cardiff at their own ground. They score more than 2 goals a game there and put 5 past Watford. If they come out swinging and Birmingham trade with them, this gets away from us. We still expect a tight, cagey night in Cardiff.

💬 These two rarely put on a show, and that is the heart of this one. Fewer than half of their last 20 meetings produced 3 or more goals, and the last five finished 1-2, 1-0, 1-2, 0-3 and 1-0. QPR are the bigger problem for the goals. They have tied three of their last five and six of their last 14. They have also lost Ilias Chair for three to four weeks with a muscle injury. Lamptey and Madsen are out as well, and Mbengue is gone for the season. That leaves a side scoring more than a goal a game at home without its main creator. Swansea are top of the league and they do not let games get loose. They have won 5 of their last 7 away trips and let in a goal a trip. Across 15 games they have let in under a goal a game, one of the meanest defensive records on the card today. A 0-1 Swansea win looks like the most likely finish, and a game like that is exactly what we want. Two warnings come with it. Swansea's clean sheets have outrun their defending, because they have given up more than a goal's worth of chances a game over their last five. QPR also put four past Derby at Loftus Road ten days ago, so there are goals in them. We still expect a tight, low scoring game.

💬 Southampton keep their away games tight, and that is the main reason we are on the quieter game. They let in under a goal a game across eight away trips, and they have won three, tied three and lost two on the road. West Ham's scoring looks huge at first glance. They score almost 3 goals a game at the London Stadium, and a 6-0 home win over Wrexham is doing a lot of that work. The other 6-0 came away at Lincoln. Their other eight recent games brought 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4 and 1 goals, which is a run of controlled games. Southampton will not open this up either. They score just over a goal a game away from home, and their seven goal top scorer Cyle Larin is a doubt. West Ham have won 11 of the last 20 meetings, and those games have averaged more than 2 goals each. A 2-1 West Ham win looks like the most likely finish, and a game of that shape keeps the goals down. The worry is West Ham's own games. They have averaged almost 4 goals a game over their last 16, and two of those nights finished 6-0. If this turns into one of those, we are beaten early. We still expect Southampton's shape to hold this game down.

💬 Watford have been dreadful on the road, and they bring nothing going forward. They did win 2-0 last time out, but they have taken one point from their last seven away games, losing six of them. Watford have scored once in their last four trips, losing 0-1 at Bristol City, 0-1 at West Brom and 0-2 at Swansea. Across all games they score less than a goal a game. Wolves handle games like this without any fuss. They have scored exactly one goal in each of their last three at Molineux. Those went 1-1 with Portsmouth, 1-3 to Bolton and 1-0 over West Brom. They are also without three forwards, with R. Jimenez, R. Gomes and B. Traore all out, so the home attack is blunt too. The last 11 meetings between these two averaged just under 3 goals in total. A 1-0 Wolves win is the most likely score, and a controlled, quiet afternoon is what this shapes up as. The warning is that Watford's games have often been busy for the wrong reason. Nine of their last 16 had three or more goals, and they have been beaten 1-5 at Cardiff and 0-4 at home by Burnley. If this turns into another rout, the goals come quickly. We still think Wolves do just enough, and do it quietly.

💬 Racing are a different team at El Sardinero, and their home games have been full of goals. Every one of their four league home games produced three goals or more. Those were 2-2 with Valencia, 2-1 over Alaves, 3-2 over Elche and 2-2 with Villarreal. Racing are unbeaten in their last seven at home, winning five of them, and they scored 3 goals a game in that run. They also let in more than 2 goals a game overall, so they are open at both ends. Eleven of their last 14 games had three or more goals. Espanyol are the quieter side. They score just over a goal a game, but seven of their last 14 games still had three or more goals, so they are no wall either. They travel without Kike Garcia, who is out until December, and Jofre Carreras. Espanyol sit 16th on eight points, level with Racing, and have one win in their last five. Racing should take charge of a game that opens up more than Espanyol want. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest score, and that gets us there. The risk is that these two have been tight together before. Their last six meetings averaged only 2 goals in total, and Espanyol can shut a game down when they need to. We still want the goals here.

💬 Chelsea do not win many games by two or more goals. They have managed it in only 4 of their last 14, and this London derby has a long history of tight scorelines. Only 8 of the last 20 meetings produced three or more goals. Chelsea arrive off 2-0 at Everton and 5-1 against Bournemouth, so the mood is good. The underlying football is cooler than that. They have been finishing far better than their chances deserve, and that rarely lasts. Chelsea have also let in almost 2 goals a game across their last eight at Stamford Bridge. A 2-2 against Hull City and a 4-3 with Brighton sit in that run. Mike Penders takes over in goal with E. Martinez out, which is an untested change. Tottenham offer very little going forward. They score less than a goal a game on the road, with a 0-0 at Nottingham Forest and a 0-3 at Brentford. R. Bentancur is suspended, and Simons, Odobert and Mudryk are all out. What Spurs do is stay in games. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals only three times in their last 13. A 2-1 Chelsea win is the likeliest score, which is how close we expect this to be. What beats us is Chelsea winning by two or more. If that hot finishing holds up against a Spurs side short of attackers, it can happen. We still want Tottenham in this one.

💬 Villarreal are a poor travelling team, and they arrive tired. They have won two and lost five of their nine away games, letting in almost 2 goals a game on the road. They were away at Anfield four days ago, and Valencia have had a full week to get ready. Valencia are a mess going forward. They sit 19th with one league win, and they score less than a goal a game at home. They did not score in four of their last five at Mestalla. What they do is keep games tight and dull. Valencia have lost by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 13 games, and four of those 13 ended level. Two of those recent home games finished 0-0. Villarreal score almost 2 goals a game, so they can hurt a poor defence, but they have won only 5 of their last 16. These two know each other well, and the last five meetings finished 1-2, 0-2, 1-1, 1-1 and 0-1. Valencia have won nine and tied four of the last 20 meetings. Another 1-1 is the likeliest score, and a tight game is all we are asking for. The warning is real. Villarreal's games are usually busy, with 12 of their last 16 producing three or more goals, and Valencia are without S. Canos, D. Lopez and U. Sadiq. We still like Valencia to dig something out here.

💬 Dortmund are winning, but they are not winning big. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 15 games, and four of their last five produced three goals or fewer. Those five finished 2-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-2 and 1-0, which tells you how little room there is in their games. Dortmund sit second and are unbeaten in the league. They score 2 goals a game and let in 1, so they grind results out rather than blow teams away. They also have five players out, including E. Can, J. Lerma and K. Prates, and they had only four days to recover from a trip to Azerbaijan. Frankfurt have had eight days to get ready. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 11 games, so they usually stay in touch. Their own goal numbers look big, but an 11-0 cup win over a fifth tier side is doing a lot of that work. The last two meetings finished 3-2 and 3-3, and seven of the last 20 ended level. A 2-1 Dortmund win is the likeliest score, and a one goal game is exactly what we want. The worry is Frankfurt's defence. They were beaten 0-6 at Leipzig and 1-4 at home by Augsburg, so a big Dortmund night is not far fetched. We are happy to back Frankfurt to keep this close.

💬 These two do not produce goals against each other. Their last 13 meetings averaged almost 2 goals in total, and only 5 of those 13 had 3 or more goals. That is the base for this one. Lens come home on three days' rest after a 0-3 beating at Club Brugge. That was their second heavy European defeat in two weeks, after a 0-2 at home to Sporting CP. A tired side that has just taken two hidings tends to play it safe. At home Lens have been solid anyway, letting in a goal a game there. Paris FC are the fresher side with six days off and they sit third on 14 points. They travel far more carefully than they play at home. On the road they are 2W-2D-2L and score just over a goal a game, well down on their home form. They also let in only a goal a game. Put a careful home side against a careful away side and you get the 1-1 that looks most likely here. That is comfortably on our side. The warning is that both teams have been in busy games elsewhere. 12 of Lens's last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and 9 of Paris FC's last 14 did the same. If Lens throw bodies forward early this can get away from us. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Atletico are rolling and Deportivo arrive in bad shape. Atletico have won their last five league games and sit second on 22 points. At the Metropolitano they are 5W-1D-1L and let in less than a goal a game there, so Deportivo will get very little. Atletico have also won by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 16. Deportivo have not won in five. They are missing Aubameyang, Carrillo, Casado, Eddahchouri and Ede, which leaves them short of a finisher. They score just over a goal a game. They have had eight days off so they will be fresh, but fresh does not fix a missing striker. Expect Atletico to go ahead before half time and add a second, with a 2-0 the most likely finish. That is the score we want. The risk here is clear and we are not hiding it. The last four meetings ended 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 and 1-1, so Atletico keep winning this one by a single goal. Deportivo have not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 11 games. Atletico are on four days' rest and are without Koke, Cardoso and Romero, so changes are likely. The gap in class is still big enough for us, and we want Atletico to win this clearly.