1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen — Tips & Analysis

Over 3.5: Both of these teams play in high scoring games, and that is the first reason we want goals here. 13 of Hoffenheim's last 15 games had 3 or more goals. Their games average almost 4 goals in total, they score almost 2 a game and they let in almost 2 a game. Across their last eight home games they have let in almost 2 a game as well, so they trade chances rather than control them. Leverkusen have won their last five, with a 4-0 at Lech Poznan and a 4-3 at Mainz in that run. They score more than 2 goals a game, and they have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 12. The history between these two backs it up. The last 20 meetings averaged more than 3 goals, and 8 in every 10 of them had 3 or more. Both sides played on Thursday night and come back on 3 days' rest, which tends to loosen a midfield rather than tighten it. A 1-3 Leverkusen win is the likeliest finish, and 4 goals clears what we need. Hoffenheim should get on the board, and the game stretches once they push men forward. The honest worry is team news. Leverkusen have five players out, headed by forwards Ben Seghir and Doue, and Hoffenheim won the last two meetings 1-0 and 2-1. We still want the busy game.