Genoa vs Venezia — Tips & Analysis

Venezia +0.5: Genoa cannot score, and that is the heart of this one. They get under a goal a game and have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 14. They have won only 3 of those 14 games, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. Genoa have won just 3 of their 8 home games, so the Ferraris has not been a fortress either. Venezia are 20th and have lost four of their last five, so this is no vote of faith in them. They do score more than Genoa, though, at more than a goal a game. They are missing their main striker Adorante, plus defenders Correia and Franjic. Both teams have had a full 8 days to get ready. This is a bottom-three scrap where a loss really hurts, and neither side will take big risks for a winner. The likeliest finish is a nervous 1-1, with each side taking one chance, and that sits on the right side for us. The warning is simple. Venezia have been in wild games lately, with their last five producing 1, 4, 2, 6 and 5 goals. They have also won one of seven away trips. If Genoa find one of their rare good days in front of goal, we are beaten. We still think Venezia leave here with something.