SC Freiburg vs Bayern München — Tips & Analysis

Bayern München -1: Bayern have not lost in 15 games, and that is the floor under this pick. They score just over 3 goals a game and let in under a goal a game. They have won by 2 or more goals in 7 of those 15 games, and they have not lost by 2 or more once. Freiburg are the problem. They have won 7, tied 1 and lost 1 of their nine home games, and they score almost 3 goals a game at this ground. Freiburg are tired though. They have had only 3 days off after a 0-3 beating at Monaco, and they have not been creating much lately. The history here is one-sided. Freiburg have beaten Bayern once in their last 20 meetings and lost 15 of them, and those games averaged almost 4 goals. That is the shape we want, with Bayern scoring freely against a side that comes out to play. What we need is a two-goal Bayern win. The most likely single score is a 1-2, which is a goal short of that, so this is no free ride. Bayern also travel without Musiala, Luis Diaz, Kimmich and Kim Min-Jae. On the road they score 2 goals a game rather than the 4 they manage at home. We still back Bayern to win this by a clear margin.