Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Academico Viseu keep games quiet, and that is the base of this pick. They let in less than a goal a game and their matches have just over 2 goals in total on average. They are a tidy team on the road too, with 4 wins, 3 ties and 2 losses away from home, and they tied 2-2 at Benfica in August. Sporting are a far better side and should win this game. They have won 10, tied 4 and lost 2 of their last 16, and they score more than 2 goals a game. The timing is what caps the score. Sporting play on 4 days of rest after a 2-3 home loss to LASK Linz in Europe, and Viseu have had 7 days. Sporting have another cup tie days after this one, so changes to the starting eleven are likely. They have also won only 6 of their 10 home games in this run and let in more than a goal a game at Alvalade. They are not steamrolling visitors there. Put that together and a 2-1 home win is our read, which is a safe result for this one. The warning is Sporting at full strength. 13 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and a weaker team can get picked apart early. If they name a strong front line, this could run away. We still want the tighter game.