Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC — Tips & Analysis

Cadiz -0.5: Cadiz have been hard to score against at home, and that is the base for this pick. They have let in under a goal a game across their last seven home games. They do not score much either, just over a goal a game, so we are backing a narrow win rather than a comfortable one. Ceuta are the reason it should still land. They sit 21st on 5 points from 10 games with a goal difference of -13, and they let in almost 2 goals a game. Away from home it is worse. Ceuta have let in more than 2 a game on the road, with a 0-3 at Mallorca and a 1-5 at FC Andorra in that run. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 15. Both teams have had a full 7 days to get ready, so there are no tired legs to blame. A 1-0 Cadiz win is the likeliest finish, and they simply need to win this. One set piece or one mistake should decide it. The clear warning is the recent history. Ceuta have won three of the four most recent meetings between these clubs, so this is a bad match up for Cadiz. Two sides this close to the bottom can also produce a nervy, open game instead of the controlled one we expect. We still think Cadiz find a way through.