Rayo Vallecano vs Elche — Tips & Analysis

Rayo Vallecano -0.5: Vallecas has become a hard place to take anything from. Rayo have not lost in their last six home games, winning three and tying three, and they let in less than a goal a game there. Elche turn up with almost nothing going forward. Their last two games both finished 0-0, at Villarreal and at home to Celta Vigo, and they have barely created a chance across their last five. Rayo have won 6, tied 6 and lost 4 of their last 16. They score just over a goal a game, so this is not a side that blows teams away. They do not have to be. Elche let in almost 2 goals a game, and they have been giving up far more good chances than those two clean sheets suggest. That is the gap we are backing. Expect a scrappy afternoon decided by one moment, a set piece or a scramble rather than an open exchange. A 1-0 Rayo win is the likeliest finish, and that is the shape we want. The risk is that Elche are built to frustrate rather than to lose. They have four ties in their last nine away games and six ties in their last 16. Rayo also come in on five days' rest to Elche's seven, without Luiz Felipe and Batalla. We are still backing Rayo to find the goal that decides it.