Chelsea vs Tottenham — Tips & Analysis

Tottenham +1: Chelsea do not win many games by two or more goals. They have managed it in only 4 of their last 14, and this London derby has a long history of tight scorelines. Only 8 of the last 20 meetings produced three or more goals. Chelsea arrive off 2-0 at Everton and 5-1 against Bournemouth, so the mood is good. The underlying football is cooler than that. They have been finishing far better than their chances deserve, and that rarely lasts. Chelsea have also let in almost 2 goals a game across their last eight at Stamford Bridge. A 2-2 against Hull City and a 4-3 with Brighton sit in that run. Mike Penders takes over in goal with E. Martinez out, which is an untested change. Tottenham offer very little going forward. They score less than a goal a game on the road, with a 0-0 at Nottingham Forest and a 0-3 at Brentford. R. Bentancur is suspended, and Simons, Odobert and Mudryk are all out. What Spurs do is stay in games. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals only three times in their last 13. A 2-1 Chelsea win is the likeliest score, which is how close we expect this to be. What beats us is Chelsea winning by two or more. If that hot finishing holds up against a Spurs side short of attackers, it can happen. We still want Tottenham in this one.