SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV — Tips & Analysis

Hamburger SV +0.5: Paderborn have not been creating enough to win a game like this, and that is why Hamburg are our pick of the game. Over their last four games Paderborn have been well outplayed, even in the ones they came through. They have won 6 of their last 16 and tied 5, and they score and let in more than a goal a game at both ends. Paderborn are also short of bodies. Awortwie-Grant is out at the back, and Gayret and Batista Meier are missing from an attack that is already running dry. Hamburg have won their last three: 1-0 at home to Stuttgart, 3-2 at Hoffenheim and 2-1 at home to Koln. None of those were comfortable, and that is the point. This team keeps finding a way to get results in tight games. Expect a scrappy afternoon in Paderborn with few clear chances for either side. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and that suits our pick. The warning is Hamburg's record on the road. They score just over a goal a game away from home and let in more than 2, including a 0-5 at Leipzig and a 0-2 at Dortmund. If they turn up like that, Paderborn can nick it. We are happy to take Hamburg as the better side here.