Lens vs Paris FC — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: These two do not produce goals against each other. Their last 13 meetings averaged almost 2 goals in total, and only 5 of those 13 had 3 or more goals. That is the base for this one. Lens come home on three days' rest after a 0-3 beating at Club Brugge. That was their second heavy European defeat in two weeks, after a 0-2 at home to Sporting CP. A tired side that has just taken two hidings tends to play it safe. At home Lens have been solid anyway, letting in a goal a game there. Paris FC are the fresher side with six days off and they sit third on 14 points. They travel far more carefully than they play at home. On the road they are 2W-2D-2L and score just over a goal a game, well down on their home form. They also let in only a goal a game. Put a careful home side against a careful away side and you get the 1-1 that looks most likely here. That is comfortably on our side. The warning is that both teams have been in busy games elsewhere. 12 of Lens's last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and 9 of Paris FC's last 14 did the same. If Lens throw bodies forward early this can get away from us. We still want the quiet game.