FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Union Berlin have stopped scoring. They did not score in three of their last five games, including a 0-0 with Dortmund, and they have created almost nothing across their last four. Their last win was a 1-0 over Elversberg. That is the main reason we want fewer goals here. The head to head backs it up. The last 16 meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals in total. That is a quiet record for two teams who both play busy games elsewhere. Augsburg have not lost in their last six at home, but four of those six were ties. They score just over 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game, so they win these without running riot. Augsburg are also without Mounie and Banks, and Union miss Ilic, Markgraf and Nsoki. The likeliest finish is a 2-1 Augsburg win, with Union landing one punch rather than trading them. That is the shape we are backing. The risk is plain. Augsburg's games have been busy, with 11 of their last 14 producing 3 or more goals. Their defence has also been giving up far more good chances than their goals against suggest. Union also won the most recent meeting 4-0, so a big win is in this matchup's history. We still expect a tighter afternoon than that.