Cardiff vs Birmingham — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: This game has been quiet for years, and that is the strongest reason we want the low-scoring night. The last 20 meetings produced just over 2 goals a game, and the last five went 1-0, 0-1, 3-1, 2-0 and 1-0. Birmingham are the reason to trust that pattern again. They have won 4 of their last 5 and tied the other, and they sit 4th on 20 points. They are the only Championship side with a perfect record since the international break. Three clean sheets in a row have carried that run, and two of them were 3-0 and 4-0 wins. Away from home they let in under a goal a game and score just over one, having won 4, tied 2 and lost 1 on their travels. They have also won by 2 or more only twice in their last 15 games. Cardiff are missing bodies at the back. Osho is suspended after a red card, and Colwill, Lawlor and Chambers are all out, with Fish expected to step in. A patched up defence tends to make a team careful rather than open. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and a game that tight is what we want. The risk is Cardiff at their own ground. They score more than 2 goals a game there and put 5 past Watford. If they come out swinging and Birmingham trade with them, this gets away from us. We still expect a tight, cagey night in Cardiff.