West Ham vs Southampton — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Southampton keep their away games tight, and that is the main reason we are on the quieter game. They let in under a goal a game across eight away trips, and they have won three, tied three and lost two on the road. West Ham's scoring looks huge at first glance. They score almost 3 goals a game at the London Stadium, and a 6-0 home win over Wrexham is doing a lot of that work. The other 6-0 came away at Lincoln. Their other eight recent games brought 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4 and 1 goals, which is a run of controlled games. Southampton will not open this up either. They score just over a goal a game away from home, and their seven goal top scorer Cyle Larin is a doubt. West Ham have won 11 of the last 20 meetings, and those games have averaged more than 2 goals each. A 2-1 West Ham win looks like the most likely finish, and a game of that shape keeps the goals down. The worry is West Ham's own games. They have averaged almost 4 goals a game over their last 16, and two of those nights finished 6-0. If this turns into one of those, we are beaten early. We still expect Southampton's shape to hold this game down.