Tips — Friday, 23 October 2026

💬 Bochum games do not produce four goals, and that is the whole pick. Not one of their last 13 games has had four or more in it, and their matches average just over 2 goals in total. At home they have been quieter still. They have scored one goal across their last four home games, which read 0-1, 1-1, 0-1 and 0-1. They score a goal a game and let in about the same. Wolfsburg are the busy side. They sit 3rd on 15 points, score 2 goals a game, and their matches average more than 3 goals in total. The thing is, a wild game needs a willing opponent, and Bochum have not been one. They are 16th on 7 points and are missing Philipp Strompf, Mikkel Rakneberg and Jean-Manuel Mbom. The last eight meetings between the two have averaged under 3 goals. A 0-1 away win is the most likely score, and that is a long way short of what would beat this pick. Wolfsburg are the real warning. They have already played out two 4-4s, plus a 5-2 and a 5-1, so when they go loose they go very loose. One of those nights would sink this. Bochum have not been in a single game like that, and we are happy to side with the quieter team.

💬 Goals have been the one constant whenever these two meet. The last 20 games between them have averaged almost 3 goals, and 10 of Elfsborg's last 18 games had 3 or more. Elfsborg are the steadier side at Boras Arena. They score almost 2 goals a game there and let in under one, so they win games without killing them off. Malmo bring the other half of this. They score almost 2 goals a game and let in just over one, and 10 of their last 17 games also had 3 or more goals. Their away form has been their best asset, with 5 wins from their last 7 road trips. Both sides have been making chances freely in recent weeks. Malmo also have six first team players ruled out, which thins them in a game they may have to chase. A 2-1 Elfsborg win looks the most likely finish, and that is enough for us. The honest worry is that Elfsborg can smother a game. If they go in front early and shut the door, a 1-0 or 2-0 leaves this short. Malmo have lost two of their last five as well, so they can go quiet for long spells. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Telstar are a different team away from their own ground, and this pick leans on that. They score under a goal a game on the road and sit 16th on six points, in the relegation place. They have also been giving up far more chances than their results show. GO Ahead are not flying, but at De Adelaarshorst they score 2 goals a game. Their home record reads 2 wins, 3 ties and 1 loss, and they let in almost 2 a game there, so they play open football. The Eagles tied four in a row before a 1-4 beating at PEC Zwolle, and they need a win badly. They have won only 2 of their last 14, so nobody should call this a side in form. The shape still suits us. A team that has to attack is up against one that barely scores away from home. A 2-1 home win looks the most likely finish. We want the Eagles on top, and a second goal of margin would make it a clean one. There are two real warnings here. A team with 2 wins in 14 is being asked to win by two, and they have done that in only 2 of their last 14. Telstar are also unbeaten in the last three meetings. They tied the most recent 1-1 and won the two before it. We are still backing the Eagles.

💬 Clermont almost never get beaten at home, and that is the heart of this. Their seven home games have produced 1 win, 5 ties and 1 loss, with under a goal a game at both ends. They have lost by 2 or more goals just once in their last 12. Guingamp are the reason we are happy with this. They have lost 6 of their last 7 away games and tied the other one, scoring under a goal a game on the road. They arrive on three straight league defeats with their manager under growing pressure. The last two meetings between these sides both finished 1-0 to Clermont. Guingamp get centre backs Gomis and Demouchy back from suspension, which should make this tighter rather than more open. Eight ties in Clermont's last 12 games tell you what kind of game to expect. A 1-0 Clermont win looks the most likely finish, and that lands this pick on its own. Now the honest part. Clermont have won once in seven home games and 2 of their last 12 overall, so they are not going to take anyone apart. They are also without regular starters Baallal and Nsima, with Allal carrying a knock. Guingamp can nick a game like this. We are still happy on Clermont's side.

💬 The weather is the biggest thing in this game. Storm Austen is due to hit the Dunkirk coast at kick off with gusts of around 110 km/h, and football in that is scrappy and close. It drags a better away side down towards a modest home one. Dunkerque are nothing special at Stade Marcel-Tribut. Their six home games there have produced only just over a goal at each end. Their games overall have been much busier, with 6 of the last 12 having 3 or more goals, so their own ground is the quiet part. Metz have been close to silent on the road. Their last five away games read 0 wins, 3 ties and 2 losses, with under a goal a game and two 0-0s among them. They are also without Nampalys Mendy, Adam Marchal and Alassane Sy. Neither side is built to control a game in a gale. Expect long balls, set pieces and mistakes rather than clean football. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and that is exactly the sort of result this pick wants. Dunkerque only have to avoid defeat. The worry is the history. Dunkerque have lost all four games they have played against Metz. A wind like this also brings dropped crosses and keeper errors, so a quiet game is not guaranteed. We are still with Dunkerque to hold Metz off.

💬 Nancy are in a far better place than Laval. They have won their last three league games and sit fifth on 16 points. Laval are 18th on six, in the relegation place, and they come here short of bodies with five players unavailable. Nancy have won 7 of their last 12 games and have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of them. They are quieter at Stade Marcel-Picot than that suggests, scoring just over a goal a game at home and letting in about one. Laval have been poor at the back on the road. Their last five away games read 0 wins, 2 ties and 3 losses, and they let in over 2 goals a game in those. They have won 2 of their last 11 overall. The one thing Laval do keep doing is scoring. They found the net in all five of those away games, so a clean sheet for Nancy is unlikely. A 2-1 Nancy win looks the most likely finish. We want Nancy clearly on top, and a second goal of margin would make this comfortable. Two honest warnings before you back it. Nancy have won by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 12, and they have already lost two of their five home games. The last meeting between the two finished 1-1, and Laval won the one before it. We are still with Nancy.

💬 PAU do not win games by much. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 12, so Grenoble's head start looks well placed. These two also have a long habit of staying level. The last 16 meetings produced 8 ties and averaged just over 2 goals in total, with only 1 in 4 of them reaching 3 goals. The recent series reads 2-2, 1-1 and 1-0. PAU come in playing well, with three league wins in a row: 2-1 at Guingamp, 3-2 at home to Laval and 2-0 against Dunkerque. Their home record is still modest, 2 wins, 1 tie and 3 losses from six at the Nouste Camp. Grenoble are the weaker side and we will not pretend otherwise. They sit 15th on 8 points, six behind PAU, and score less than a goal a game. They have still won 4 and tied 3 of their last 13, and they only need to keep this close. A 1-0 PAU win is the most likely single score, and that result stops this landing in full. We want Grenoble to come away with at least a tie. The worry is their travelling. Grenoble have lost by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 13, including 0-4 at Saint Etienne and 2-4 at Dunkerque. If this turns into one of those nights, the head start is no help. We still think the tight pattern of this game is the better guide.

💬 Sochaux tie almost everything. They have tied 8 of their last 14 games, and they have not won once by 2 or more goals in that run. That makes them the ideal home side to face with a head start. Annecy are the better team here. They have won 8 of their last 16, score more than a goal a game, and have won 5 of their 8 away trips. Sochaux are still hard to beat at Stade Bonal, where they have lost just one of seven. They have 3 wins, 3 ties and 1 loss at home, and they barely score a goal a game themselves. So the shape of this one is a slow game with very little in it. Annecy do not need many goals to get a result. They have scored exactly one goal in seven of their last nine games, including 1-0 at PAU and 1-0 at Dunkerque. A 1-1 tie is the most likely finish, and that is a good result for this bet. The risk is that Annecy rarely stop at a tie. They have not tied any of their last 8 away games, so someone usually wins these games, and a stubborn home side could be the one. We are happy taking Annecy with the head start in a game that should finish level.

💬 Valladolid away games are quiet. Their last five on the road produced 4, 2, 2, 1 and 2 goals in total, and they have not won away all season. Their last 8 road games read 3 ties and 5 losses, scoring under a goal a trip. Granada are in good form and do not need a shootout to win this. They have won three in a row, 2-0 against Cadiz, 1-0 at Burgos and 3-2 at Real Sociedad II, with clean sheets in the last two. Granada score just over a goal a game, so they control games rather than blow them apart. Valladolid also look better going forward than they really are. The 5-0 that lifts their scoring came against Albacete, bottom of the table on one point. Take that out and this is a side that barely scores on the road. Granada should keep the ball at Los Carmenes and pick the game off. A 2-0 home win is the most likely finish, and that is comfortably the right side of this bet. The honest worry is the history between them. The last 13 meetings averaged almost 3 goals in total, including a 5-1 in February. Granada's own home record is only 2 wins, 1 tie and 3 losses from six, so an early goal against them could open this up. We still expect a controlled, low-scoring home win.

💬 A big goal count needs both teams scoring, and Gladbach are not scoring. They have managed one goal in three away league games: 1-2 at Koln, 0-5 at Freiburg and 0-3 at Leipzig. They sit bottom of the Bundesliga with no points from 6 games and five losses in a row. Their coach listed nine absentees, with Tim Kleindienst out after a fresh muscle tear. Making chances is their bigger problem right now, not just letting goals in. Stuttgart score 2 goals a game at home and let in 1. They have won by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 12, so they can win this without a wild night. Stuttgart also tied 1-1 with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on 20 October and have had 3 days off since. Gladbach have had 5. A tired home side with a job to do rarely plays end to end. The last 19 meetings averaged 3 goals in total, which fits that picture. A 2-0 Stuttgart win is the most likely finish, and that sits well inside what we need. The risk here is real. Gladbach games have been busy, with 9 of their last 12 producing 3 or more goals, and they let in 2 a game. Freiburg put five past them. We still think Stuttgart win this in control rather than in a shootout.

💬 Shelbourne hardly ever get beaten by much. They have lost by 2 or more goals in just 2 of their last 19 games, and that is the heart of this bet. They have also tied six of their last eleven away games and lost only three, so they are awkward visitors. Bohemians are strong at Dalymount Park, where they have won 7 of 10 and score just over 2 goals a game. They have to win here too. They sit second on 62 points, three behind Shamrock Rovers with two rounds left, so the title race is over for them if they slip. Even so, Bohemians have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 19 games. These two know each other far too well for a runaway result. The last 20 meetings produced 9 ties and averaged just over 2 goals in total, and this year's series already has a 0-0 and two 2-2s. A 2-1 Bohemians win is the most likely single score. That margin does not beat us, but we want Shelbourne to keep it to one goal or better. The risk is a home side chasing a title and throwing everything at a late second goal. Shelbourne's recent scoring is also flattered by a 5-1 win over bottom club Sligo Rovers. We still want Shelbourne and the goal in a game this tight.

💬 Derry have made the Brandywell hard work for visitors. They have won 6 of 10 at home and let in just over a goal a game there, and their last two home league games both finished 1-0. Dundalk arrive with no win in five, and their last five results read two ties and three losses. They are also missing five players, including goalkeeper Conor Kearns. Derry are not flawless either. They have won 9 of their last 20 and score more than a goal a game, and they play this one without Carl Winchester and Darragh Markey. The difference is that Derry keep finding a way to win the tight games at home. Dundalk do travel better than they host, with 4 wins, 4 ties and 3 losses on the road against 2 wins, 1 tie and 6 losses at home. Derry also had only 4 days off after Monday's game, to Dundalk's 6. So this is a win to grind out, not a stroll. A 1-0 Derry win is the most likely finish, and that is exactly what this bet needs. The warning is the history. These two tied 9 of their last 20 meetings, and two of this year's four games finished 2-2. Derry have also been winning without creating much, and that cannot last forever. We still want Derry to win this game.

💬 St Patrick's are the reason we want the goals to stay low here. They have let in under a goal a game across their last eight away games, and they won four of those. Only 6 of their last 19 games have had 3 or more goals in them, so quiet football is what they produce. Galway are built much the same way at Eamonn Deacy Park. They have tied five of their last twelve home games there and let in 1 goal a game. Galway score under 2 goals a game and have little left to chase, sitting seventh on 41 points with two rounds to go. St Pat's sit third on 59 points and are chasing Bohemians on 62 for second, so they will want control rather than a shootout. The last 14 meetings have averaged under 3 goals, and St Pat's are unbeaten in the last five of them. A 0-1 away win is the most likely score, and a night like that keeps this well on side. The warning is Galway's own record. 10 of their last 20 games have had 3 or more goals, so they are not always this tidy. Team news is unconfirmed as well, and St Pat's could change their side if second place slips away before kickoff. We still expect a tight, low-scoring game.

💬 Waterford have been a different team at the RSC, and that is the case for backing them. They have 7 wins, 3 ties and 1 loss in their last eleven home games there, scoring 2 goals a game and letting in 1. They come in off a 3-2 win over Galway, and across their last 20 games they have won 11 and lost only 3. Drogheda are the weaker side on the road. They have won 3, tied 2 and lost 4 of their last nine away games, scoring just over a goal a game and letting in more. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 18. Two attacking players, Elicha Ahui and Douglas James-Taylor, are missing, with Andrew Quinn a doubt. The table shapes this one. Both clubs sit on 37 points with two rounds left, and Drogheda hold the relegation play-off place on goal difference. A tie leaves them exactly where they are, so they have to come forward, and that suits a home side scoring 2 a game. A 2-1 Waterford win is the most likely score. The catch is the rest. Drogheda have had seven days off against Waterford's four, and games like this can tighten up instead of opening. Two of the last five meetings finished 0-0 and 0-2, so a flat night is possible. We still want Waterford to take this.

💬 Monza are the reason to back goals here. Their games have had more than 3 goals in total on average, and 10 of their last 14 have had 3 or more. They put four past Cagliari last time out. They give plenty back as well. Monza have let in almost 2 goals a game across their last seven away games, and they won only two of them. They arrive without Pessina and Ziolkowski, so an away defence that is already soft gets no help from an unsettled lineup. Torino are in good form and should punish that. They have won three of their last five, including 3-0 at Parma and 2-1 at home to Udinese. Torino score just over a goal a game and let in about the same, and 10 of their last 16 games have had 3 or more goals. Both sides come in on four days' rest, so neither has a tired-legs excuse to sit back. A 2-1 Torino win is the most likely score, and three goals is enough to land this. The honest worry is the history between them. Only two of the last eight meetings had 3 or more goals, and Monza won 1-0 at Torino in the Coppa Italia in September. Monza were playing second tier football as recently as May, though, so the older meetings involve a very different team. We want the busier game.

💬 Nobody wins this game by much, and that is the heart of the case for Nice. Brest have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 13 games. They have tied six of those 13, so level football is their normal setting. Brest are also leaky at Stade Francis-Le-Ble, letting in more than a goal a game across their last six home games. Their home scoring looks better than it is. Take away one 5-1 win over Angers and the home games we can see gave them 0, 1, 1 and 2 goals. Nice are no better going forward. They score just over a goal a game, and they have tied six of their last 15. They are also without Abdi, Abergel, Bombito and Mendy, four first-team players. That unsettled side is why we are not asking Nice to win the game. The history backs the same story. Six of the last 19 meetings ended level, and those games averaged under 3 goals. A 1-1 is the most likely score, and a tight, level night is exactly what we want. The real worry is Nice on the road. They have won once in their last eight away games, scoring under a goal a trip, and Brest have won two of their last five. If Brest get an early goal, Nice have not shown they can answer. We still think this one stays close.

💬 Shamrock Rovers are a different team at Tallaght, and that is where this pick starts. They have not lost at home in their last ten games there. They won eight of them and score more than 2 goals a game at that ground. Sligo arrive with nothing left to play for. They are bottom of the table, already down, and thirteen points behind Drogheda United with two games to go. On the road they have won once in their last ten trips, scoring under a goal a game and letting in more than 2. They have managed one goal in their last five away league games. Shamrock still need points of their own. They lead Bohemians by three with two rounds left and the goal difference between them is level, so a big win matters tonight. Sligo have lost by 2 or more goals in 9 of their last 19 games, and Shamrock have won 11 of the last twenty meetings. A 3-0 home win looks the most likely result, and that kind of night is exactly what this needs. The warning is real though. Shamrock have won by 2 or more in only 4 of their last 20 games, so big wins are not a habit. They also lost 0-2 at Galway last time out and are missing Daniel Grant, Victor Ozhianvuna and Rory Gaffney. We still think the gap here is too wide for Sligo.

💬 Forest have won one of their last eleven games, and that is the biggest reason we are with Ipswich here. Ipswich have been a solid home side. They have won four of their last seven at Portman Road and score 2 goals a game there. Across all games they have won 6 of their last 14 and score almost 2 a game. Forest have not looked like a winning side anywhere in this run. They score under a goal a game across all their games and sit 19th in the table on 5 points from 7. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last eleven, so a heavy away win is barely on the table. Igor Jesus and Nicolo Savona are both out, so the visiting side is unsettled as well. Ipswich have had an extra day of rest too. Put it together and Ipswich should have more of the ball and the better chances. A 2-1 home win is the most likely score, and that is enough for this pick. The honest worry is that Forest have played better than their results. They have created plenty in their last five games and simply have not finished, so one clean night in front of goal changes this. Ipswich let in as many as they score, and Forest have won nine of the last nineteen meetings. We still want Ipswich.

💬 Neither of these teams plays high-scoring football, and that is the case here. Bolton's games have had under 3 goals in total on average, and Middlesbrough's are much the same. Bolton rarely win big either. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 2 of their last 15 games, and 11 of those 15 stayed under 5 goals. Bolton are in decent shape, with three wins in their last five and a 0-0 at Southampton last time out. Middlesbrough are third and the better side on paper, but their travelling has been ordinary. They have won 3, tied 2 and lost 4 of their last nine away games, scoring just over a goal a game and letting in more. They have also tied three of their last five. The visitors are missing Strelec, Pukstas and Jones, so their side is unsettled. The last 14 meetings have averaged under 3 goals, though most of them run back a few years. A 1-1 is the most likely score here, and a night like that leaves us in good shape. The worry is Middlesbrough's recent pattern. Their last three ties all finished 2-2, against Cardiff, Birmingham and Millwall, and a game like that is enough to beat us. Bolton have not tied any of their last seven home games either. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Malaga barely score, and that is the simplest reason to back a quiet game. They score under a goal a game, and only 4 of their last 15 games have had 3 or more goals in them. They have tied seven of those 15, so their games often end level and low. Malaga arrive bottom of the table with four points from nine games and five players unavailable, including Cruz, Lobete, Munoz and Murillo. A side in that spot defends deep and plays for a clean sheet. Alaves are the better team, but they are in poor shape themselves. They have lost four of their last five and score under 2 goals a game. They are also missing Garces and Rodriguez, so their own side is unsettled. Put a struggling attack against a team set up to survive and you get a grind. A 1-0 Alaves win is the most likely score, and a single goal keeps this well on track. The risk is that Alaves are the stronger side by a long way. They have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 16 games, and Malaga have lost by 2 or more in 4 of their last 15. One early goal could open this up. We still expect a low-scoring night.

💬 Neither of these teams is scoring much right now, and that is the heart of this pick. Vitória have managed 6 goals in their last 10 games, which is well under a goal a game. Their matches average under 2 goals in total, and only 2 of those 10 had 3 or more goals in them. At home they have been quieter still. Their four home games produced two goals for and two against, reading 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 and 0-1. Maritimo have gone cold as well. They have created almost nothing across their last four games, and on the road they score just over a goal a game. Vitória are short of players too. Alioune Ndoye is suspended, Juan Castillo and Francisco Dias are out, and Thiago Balieiro is a doubt. History points the same way. The last twenty meetings have averaged just over 2 goals, and the last five read 2-1, 1-0, 1-0, 2-1 and 0-0. A 1-0 home win is the most likely score, and a night like that is comfortable for this pick. The worry is Maritimo. Their own games have been busier. 10 of their last 14 had 3 or more goals in them, and they have scored in eight of their last nine. One early goal from them opens the whole thing up. We still expect a tight, low-scoring game.