Tips — Sunday, 23 August 2026

💬 Burnley's record looks awful, and it is misleading. Those 14 games were almost all Premier League football, against Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa, Brighton and Nottingham Forest. This is the Championship now, and Burnley are a much stronger side than that run suggests. West Brom have won 6, tied 7 and lost 3 of their last 16 games, and they let in less than a goal a game. They also tie a lot at their own ground, 5 of their 8 games there, and they score just over a goal a game at home. Their opening win at Norwich flattered them. Norwich made the better chances, and the goal that won it came off Aune Heggebo's hand. He now serves a two match ban for it, so West Brom lose their matchwinner. Burnley have their own problems. Ashley Barnes, Enock Agyei, Jaydon Banel, Josh Cullen and Jordan Beyer are all out, and Connor Roberts is a major doubt. Even so, they tied 6 of those 14 games, so they are hard to beat. Here is the catch. A 1-1 is the likeliest single score, but we think Burnley are the stronger side and back them to take the game. 7 of the last 12 meetings between these two were tied, and West Brom tie more games than they lose. Burnley are still the side we want.

💬 Lille have owned this game lately. Angers have not scored in any of the last four meetings, losing 0-1, 0-1, 0-2 and 0-2, so Lille arrive with a real hold over them. Angers are the problem for their own fans. They score under a goal a game across their last 15, winning only 3 of them and losing 8. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of those 15 games. Belkebla is out too, and that thins a midfield that already struggled to get anyone near the box. Lille are the opposite. They won 9 of their last 15 and let in less than a goal a game. Last season on the road they were excellent, winning seven of their eight trips. Expect a controlled game rather than a wild one. The last 20 meetings averaged 2 goals in total, so Lille will likely keep the ball, take few risks and win it with one clear moment. A 0-1 to Lille is our read, and that does the job here. Two honest warnings. Lille lose Andre and Fernandez-Pardo to suspension, so a patched midfield could make this scrappier than it looks on paper. This is also the first game after 98 days off for both sides, so last season's form may not hold. We still think Lille have too much.

💬 Villa's games rarely stay quiet. Ten of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals, and that is the strongest reason we want goals here. Brighton come into this in a bad spot. They played a goalless game in Tromso on Thursday and have had only 3 days to recover. Villa have had 11. Ferguson and Minteh are out, with Mitoma, Baleba and Tzimas all doubtful. Brighton still score, just over a goal a game, but they let in about the same. They had 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 16 games. Villa score more than 2 goals a game and let in more than one. They are missing Onana and Joao Gomes from central midfield, which is the part of a team that slows a game down. Two patched-up midfields usually mean space, and space means chances. The head to head backs it up. The last 18 meetings averaged almost 3 goals, and Villa have won 10 of them to Brighton's 2. A 1-2 to Villa is our read, and that gets us home. The risk is a flat opening night. If Brighton rotate heavily and sit deep after their European trip, this could stay quiet for an hour. Villa have the better attack and the fresher legs, so we still want the busier game.

💬 Bournemouth do not let games run away. They did not lose any of their last 15, winning 6 and tying 9, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. On the road they let in less than a goal a trip. That is the main reason we want a controlled night here. City will have the ball for most of it. They score almost 2 goals a game and won 5 of their last 7 at home. Doku is out and Savinho is ill, so two of the quickest ways they open up a packed defense are missing. Patient City sides tend to win these 2-0, not 4-0. Bournemouth are short too. Christie is suspended, and Kroupi, Adli and Araujo are all out, so there is less pace on the break. They have not played a competitive game in 91 days either. Expect them to sit deep and stay tight rather than trade blows. A 2-0 home win is our read, with the second goal arriving late. That leaves this well inside what we want. The honest worry is history. The last 20 meetings averaged more than 3 goals, and City had 3 or more goals in 12 of their last 17 games. An early goal each way and this gets loose fast. We still expect City to control it and keep the total down.

💬 Valladolid cannot win away from home. They did not win any of their eight away games last season, losing seven of them and letting in 2 goals a trip. That is the main reason we are backing the home side. Eibar are solid at Ipurua. They won 9 of their last 15 games and let in less than a goal a game. They scored almost 2 goals a game across their seven home games last season. Eibar did lose their opening game 1-3 at home to Tenerife, but they made far more chances than Tenerife did and the finishing let them down. Valladolid arrive in poor shape. They have lost four of their last five. They did not score in three of their last five away trips, and they went down 0-2 at Mallorca in their opener. They score about a goal a game and won only 4 of their last 15. Put that together and Eibar should control this one. A 2-0 home win is our read, with Valladolid offering very little going the other way. Two honest warnings. There is no team news out for either club, so a late absence could change how this looks. The last meeting between them finished 0-0, and Eibar do let in goals at home, so a tight game is possible. We still want Eibar to win this.

💬 This game keeps ending level. Nine of the last 20 meetings were ties, and Atletico lead the series by only 6 wins to 5. A head start for Villarreal matters in a game with that history. Atletico are not the force their name suggests right now. They won 6 of their last 16 games and lost 8. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than one. Most telling of all, they have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 16. They are short up front as well. Sorloth is injured, Hjulmand and Romero are out, and Julian Alvarez has only just come back to training. Villarreal are hard to beat on the road. They lost just 3 of their nine away games last season, with four of those trips ending level. Across all games they score almost 2 goals a game. They have lost only 4 of their last 16. A 1-1 is our read here, and that is a fine result for this pick. Now the honest part. Villarreal were second best in their opening 2-2 at promoted Racing Santander, so they are not in top gear yet. Atletico barely let Malaga near their goal in a 2-0 win, and one early goal would change the shape of this completely. We still want Villarreal with the start.

💬 Monaco rarely win by a lot. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 3 of their last 14 games. Last season on the road they let in more than 2 goals a game. Keeping this one close is the whole idea. Monaco also arrive stretched. They played in Poland on Thursday, they have a second leg to come, and rotation is expected. Seven players are unavailable, including two of their back line and the suspended Mawissa, plus forwards Balogun, Fati and Abline. Le Havre are hard to beat by much. They tied 6 of their last 13 games and lost by 2 or more in only 2 of them. Five of the last 10 meetings with Monaco finished level. They have had the full summer to get ready, 98 days since their last game, so the legs should be fresh. Here is the honest part. The most likely single score is a 1-2 to Monaco, and that is not the result this pick needs. Le Havre have to take something from the game, and their record of ties against Monaco says that is a real chance. Monaco are still the better team, and a strong teamsheet would show the gap quickly. Le Havre have not played a competitive game in 98 days, so their steady record is last season's. We back Le Havre to stay in this one.

💬 Liverpool come to St James' Park with a patched up back line. Ekitike, Gomez and Bradley are all out, and a new face is set to start in that defence. Liverpool also win big less often than you would think. They won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 18 games, and lost by 2 or more in 5 of them. Newcastle are far from perfect themselves. They have won 4, tied 2 and lost 7 of their last 13, and they let in almost 2 goals a game. What they do have is pace up front and a full house behind them. Both clubs start with a new head coach in charge for the first time. Newcastle have not played a competitive game in 91 days, so this should be loose and open rather than a controlled Liverpool win. The most likely single score is 1-2 to Liverpool. That is close, and it leaves this pick a little short, so we need Newcastle to take something from this game. Against a defence this new to each other, a point is a fair ask. The worry is history. Newcastle have won just 1 of the last 20 meetings with Liverpool, and Isak now lines up for the visitors. We still back Newcastle to stay in this one.

💬 Juventus games are quiet, and that is the heart of this one. Only 4 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. Frosinone look dangerous on paper. They have won 10 and tied 5 of their last 15 with no losses, and they score more than 2 goals a game. Almost all of that was done in Serie B against second tier sides, and Serie A is a much harder test. Juventus score more than a goal a game and let in less than one. They tied 5 of their last 14, so they are happy to grind a game out. They also play their first competitive game in 91 days, under a new coach, with a much changed squad. Rusty teams tend to keep things tight rather than trade blows. Frosinone have lost 6 of the last 7 meetings with Juventus and should sit deep and defend. A 0-1 Juventus win is the most likely score, and a game with one goal in it is a comfortable win for us. The risk is real. Juventus have won each of their last five meetings with Frosinone, and scored at least twice in every one of them. Frosinone have also not lost any of their last 15 games. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Burgos are the reason this game will be tight, and that is exactly why we want them. They have won 9, tied 5 and lost only 1 of their last 15 games. They let in less than a goal a game, which is far better than anything Sporting have managed. Sporting Gijon have won 6 and lost 7 of their last 15. They score more than a goal a game and let in just over one. Their opener flattered them. It finished 0-0 at home, and Sabadell created much the better chances. Sporting are also short of bodies. Hugo Guillamon tore a calf muscle on his debut, and Alex Lizancos is out with a knee injury. Burgos come in with four wins and a tie in their last 5 games, and they score more than a goal a game. Their games average 2 goals in total, so winning low scoring ones is normal for them. The last 11 meetings have averaged under 2 goals, and Sporting only lead that head to head 4W-4D-3L. The most likely finish is 0-1 to Burgos, and that lands this pick. The warning is Sporting's home form. They have won 4 of their 7 games there and let in less than a goal a game, so a home win here would be no shock. We still want Burgos with a head start in a game this close.

💬 Getafe are running on empty, and that is why we are with Racing. Getafe have had 3 days since a European game. Racing have had 7. Getafe are also missing Christantus Uche and Juanmi, and Kiko Femenia is suspended. That is three players gone from a team which only scores a goal a game. Getafe have won 7 and lost 6 of their last 14, and they let in less than a goal a game. They are stubborn when everything is calm. Their opener was not calm. They lost 0-3 at Alaves and barely created a chance. Racing Santander came up from the second tier and they score plenty. They score more than 2 goals a game, their games have 4 goals in them on average, and 11 of their last 14 had 3 or more goals. They have won 8 of their last 14 and already have a 2-2 tie with Villarreal on the board. A 1-1 is the most likely finish here, and that result does the job for us. There are two things to watch. Getafe are a different team at the Coliseum, where they have won 5 of 7 and let in less than a goal a game. Racing's big numbers were also built in the division below, so they may not carry into La Liga. We still want Racing with the head start.

💬 Neither of these teams is scoring enough to worry us. Atalanta have won only 3 of their last 16 games and tied 8 of them. At home they score less than a goal a game, with a 1W-4D-3L record there. They come in 3 days after a 0-0 in Europe, and they are without centre backs Isak Hien and Giorgio Scalvini. A patched back line usually means a careful game plan, not an open one. Sassuolo have not won away in six tries, taking 2 ties and 4 losses. They score less than a goal a game on the road. They are missing Kone, Paz and Cande, and Berardi is a doubt. This is the first weekend of the season, so both teams are still finding a shape. 9 of Atalanta's last 16 games had 2 goals or fewer, and their last home game finished 0-0. A 1-1 looks the most likely finish, and 2 goals is comfortably inside what we want. The history says otherwise, and it is worth respecting. Atalanta have won 14 of the last 20 meetings, and those games averaged more than 3 goals. Sassuolo have also landed on exactly 3 goals in 8 of their last 14, so a fourth goal is the thing to fear. We still want the quieter game with these two attacks in this state.

💬 Milan turn up for their first game of the season without a proper front line. Rafael Leao has not recovered from a muscle problem. Christian Pulisic is expected to miss out after more than six weeks on the sidelines. Santiago Gimenez has been left out over a move to Porto, and Nkunku, Fofana and Tomori are out as well. Milan were a quiet team even before all that. They score just over a goal a game, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. 9 of their last 16 games had 2 goals or fewer. They have not played a competitive game in 91 days, which rarely makes for a smooth attacking display. Torino are the fresher side with 8 days since a cup game, and they are awkward to play at home. They have won 6, tied 4 and lost 6 of their last 16, and they let in just over a goal a game at home. This has the shape of a cagey opener that Torino edge through one set piece or one break. A 1-0 is the most likely finish, and that is well clear of what we need. The warning is that Torino games are rarely quiet. 11 of their last 16 had 3 or more goals, and the last two meetings with Milan both finished 3-2. If Pulisic and Leao make the squad after all, Milan look a different team. We still want the low scoring game here.

💬 Rennes are hard to beat by much at Roazhon Park, and that is the whole case here. They have won 5 of their last 7 home games and let in less than a goal a game there. They also beat this same team 3-1 back in February. Across their last 13 games Rennes have won 9, and they score just over 2 goals a game. They have lost by 2 or more only twice in those 13. Paris Saint Germain are the stronger team and nobody is arguing with that. They have won 12 of their last 18, score more than 2 goals a game, and let in less than a goal a game on the road. Nuno Mendes is suspended, and Barcola and Mbaye are out with transfer talk hanging over them. The rest of the squad is fit, so this is close to full strength. The last 19 meetings read 6W-3D-10L to Rennes, so they do get results in this game. A 1-2 to PSG is the most likely finish, and a narrow loss like that is what this pick is built for. There is real risk in it. PSG have won by 2 or more in 9 of their last 18 games, so a big win is well within them. Rennes have not played a competitive game in 98 days and could be rusty, with a much changed team. We still think Rennes stay close enough here.

💬 Bragantino's home games have been almost silent. Their last four at home finished 0-1, 0-2, 1-0 and 0-0. That is one goal scored in four games. At home they score a goal a game and let in less than one. Only 6 of their last 18 games have had 3 or more goals. This is a side that keeps things tight. Gremio arrive in poor shape. They sit 15th and were beaten 3-0 at Atletico-MG last time out. Both of their senior centre-backs are missing, with Walter Kannemann suspended and Fabian Balbuena out. A patched back line usually means a visiting team sits deeper, not braver. So this should be a grind. Expect a scrappy first hour and a goal from a set piece or a scramble. Bragantino have had 4 days since their last game to Gremio's 7, which is another reason to expect a careful start. Our read is a 1-0 home win, and that is exactly the quiet night we want. The catch is Gremio. Their own games have been busier, at almost 3 goals a game, and 9 of their last 16 had 3 or more. If they have to chase a goal late, this can open up. Even so, we are happy to take the low scoring side of it.

💬 Palmeiras top the league on 48 points. Vasco sit 19th on 22 and are inside the relegation places. That gap is the whole case for backing the home side here. Palmeiras score almost 2 goals a game and let in less than one. They have won by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 20 games. They have not lost by 2 or more once in that run. Vasco have won only 6 of their last 19 games and lost by 2 or more four times. They also played in Paraguay three days ago. Now they travel to Sao Paulo on 3 days of rest. The shape of the night is easy to picture. Vasco drop deep and defend. Palmeiras work the ball wide and wait for the opening. Palmeiras have won 11 of the last 20 meetings and lost only 3. Once Vasco have to chase the game, a second goal should follow late. A 2-0 home win is our read. The worry is patience. Palmeiras have been blunt at their own ground, tying four of nine games there and scoring just over a goal a game. Paulinho, R. Sosa and Jefte are all out, so the attack is thinner than usual. Vasco won 4-1 in midweek and are fighting for their lives. We still expect Palmeiras to win this one clearly.

💬 Goals have followed both of these sides all season. 11 of Bahia's last 18 games had 3 or more goals, and 10 of Vitoria's last 20 did too. That is the base for backing goals in this derby. Vitoria have been strong at the Barradao. They have won 9 of their 10 home games and score more than 2 goals a game there. Their games overall average 3 goals between the two teams. Bahia are the harder side to break down. They have tied their last five games and 8 of their 18 overall. They score just over a goal a game and let in about the same. Even so, their games still average almost 3 goals. The extra push comes from the Vitoria team sheet. Six players are out, including Camutanga, Anderson, Dudu and Edu. A patched side that attacks the way Vitoria do at home tends to leave space at the back. Now the honest part. The single most likely score is 1-1, and that does not get us there. We need a third goal, and in a loud derby with a weakened home defense that is a fair ask. The history says be careful. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals with eight ties. Bahia are happy to sit in and take a point. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Almeria do not travel well, and that is the heart of this one. They have won just one of their seven away games and score only a goal a game on the road. Tenerife are unbeaten at home in seven, with four wins and three ties. They let in less than a goal a game there. Across their last 14 games they have not lost by 2 or more even once. Beating them clearly is a hard job for anyone in this league. Almeria are still the stronger squad on paper. They have won 7 of their last 15 and score almost 2 goals a game. They also let in more than a goal a game, and their best player, Sergio Arribas, is a doubt. The Heliodoro is a real advantage and Tenerife are close to full strength. Marc Mateu is back from a muscle injury and Anthony Landazuri is back from suspension. Both teams won their opening game, so neither has to take risks early. The last 14 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, which fits a cagey night. A 1-1 tie looks the likeliest result, and Tenerife taking a point works for us. There are two real warnings. Almeria have won the last five meetings, including 1-0 at the Heliodoro. Nine of Tenerife's last ten games before this month were third tier, so their record flatters them. We still expect Tenerife to stay with them.

💬 Barcelona have not played a competitive game in 92 days. This is their first game of the season, and that rust is why we want the home side to stay close. Elche did not lose at home all of last season. They won four and tied two there, scoring more than a goal a game and letting in a goal a game. Better still for this pick, Elche have lost by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 15 games. They are a hard team to beat by a wide margin. Barcelona are the better side and we are not pretending otherwise. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won 11 of their last 14. But they are without Frenkie de Jong with a knee problem, and Roony Bardghji is out with a serious knee injury. Elche should sit in a back three, stay compact and look to break. Expect a ragged, rusty opening from the visitors before their quality shows. We read this as a 2-1 win for Barcelona, and a one goal game keeps Elche inside their head start. The danger is history. Elche have lost 11 of the last 12 meetings, and two of those finished 0-4 and 0-3. If Barcelona click early, this can get away from Elche fast. We still think a fresh home side keeps it tight.

💬 Goals follow both of these teams. New York City's games average just over 3 goals in total and New England's almost 3. 12 of New York City's last 20 games had 3 or more goals, and 11 of New England's last 18 did. New England are in good shape. They sit fourth in the East and won 3-0 at DC United last time out. At home they score more than a goal a game, but they also let in more than a goal a game. They are not built to shut a game down. New York City are in trouble at the back. They have lost four in a row and have eight players out, including striker A. Martinez and centre-backs Thiago Martins and A. O'Neill. They have still scored in each of those four defeats, which is the important part for us. Put that together and you get an open game. A patched back line at Gillette against a home team playing well usually leaks. Our read is a 2-1 home win, and three goals is what we want. The honest catch is the history. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, so these two often play tight games. New England have also lost Leonardo Campana for three to four weeks with a hamstring problem. We still want goals here.

💬 Neither of these teams can score, and this matchup has a long history of quiet games. The last 15 meetings averaged 2 goals in total, and most of them stayed under 3. Chapecoense are bottom of the league and it shows. They have won 4 of their last 18 games, and they have barely made a chance in their last three. Seven players are missing, including Victor Caetano through suspension. They are still awkward at their own ground, where they have tied 3 of their 8 games. Sao Paulo are not much better going forward. They have won 4 and tied 8 of their last 19, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. On the road they have not won any of their last 10 trips, scoring under a goal a game. Lucas Moura is out with an Achilles problem and Rafael Toloi is injured too. Sao Paulo also arrive on 4 days of rest after a midweek win over Bolivar. Chapecoense have had a full week. Tired legs and two blunt attacks point to a slow, scrappy night, and a 1-1 is our read. The warning is Chapecoense's own games. 11 of their last 18 had 3 or more goals, and they let in almost 2 a game. If Sao Paulo rotate and this opens up, it can go wrong fast. We still expect a low scoring night.

💬 Tired legs and a blunt visiting attack are the case here. Both teams flew to Ecuador in midweek and came home with 0-0 ties. Santos got theirs at Macara, Mirassol at LDU Quito, and each side has had only 3 days to recover. Santos have won 9 of their last 17 games and score almost 2 goals a game. Those numbers are kinder than the truth. Two big wins over weak Sudamericana opposition pad them out, and in the league Santos sit 14th with a minus 3 goal difference. Mirassol are the bigger reason to expect a quiet game. They have won one of their nine away games and score less than a goal a game on the road. They have no win in their last 5 and have barely made a chance in the last four. Six players are out, including the suspended Denilson. That points to a slow game with Santos probing and Mirassol sitting deep. Santos should find a way through in the end, and a 1-0 home win is our read. Now the honest part. The last 10 meetings averaged just over 3 goals, and most of them had 3 or more. Santos's own games average almost 3 goals in total, so an early goal would change the shape of this. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Corinthians are running on empty, and that is why we want the home side. This is their third game in eight days. They arrive in Curitiba two days after a Libertadores win over Rosario Central, and Coritiba have had a full week off. Corinthians are also missing the two men who supply most of their goals. Yuri Alberto is out with a muscle problem and Rodrigo Garro is suspended. Andre, Vitinho and Kayke are out too. Corinthians have won 8 of their last 18 games and let in a goal a game. They have been hard to score against lately, so this was never going to be a shootout. Coritiba are hardly flying either. They have won 6 and tied 7 of their last 20, they score just over a goal a game, and they have not made many chances lately. What they do is keep games tight. Their games average just over 2 goals in total. Two cautious sides, one of them dead on their feet, points to a low scoring night. A 1-1 is our read, and that is enough for this pick. The worry is history. Coritiba have won only 2 of the last 20 meetings with Corinthians and lost 12 of them. They have also lost by 2 or more in 5 of their last 20 games. We still want Coritiba with a head start against a team playing their third game in eight days.