Tips — Saturday, 22 August 2026

💬 Kashima have made their own ground a hard place to visit, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won eight and tied one of their nine home games there, and they let in well under a goal a game in them. Across all games they have won 14 of their last 19. Avispa Fukuoka are a different kind of team. They score just over a goal a game and they tie far too often, with 8 ties in their last 18. On the road they manage barely more than a goal a trip. That is not enough to hurt a Kashima side that keeps the ball and keeps its shape. Meetings between these two are usually tight, averaging about 2 goals in total over the last 20. Kashima have won 9 of them and lost only 5. So the shape of the game is clear. Kashima should take the lead before the hour and add a second late as Avispa push out, and a 2-0 home win is what we expect. The worry is real though. Avispa turn more games into ties than anyone else in the division, and they arrive off a 3-0 home win over Cerezo Osaka on 15 August. If they get bodies behind the ball early, this can drag. We still think Kashima have too much for them.

💬 Both of these teams play in games that rarely stay quiet, and that is the case for backing goals here. Okayama's games average almost 3 goals in total, and 7 of their last 15 have had 3 or more. They score and let in about the same amount, which tells you they do not control games for long. Tokyo Verdy are the bigger reason we want this. They travel badly, with one win in nine on the road, and they let in more than a goal a game away. They score under a goal a game, so they need a mistake or a break to get on the board. They usually find one here. Verdy have won four of the last five meetings, including a 4-2 at Okayama in September 2025. The last 20 games between these clubs have averaged more than 2 goals. We have to be straight about the risk. The single most likely score is a tight 1-0 to Okayama, and that beats this bet on its own. Four of Okayama's last five home games produced two goals or fewer, so a grind is very much on the table. What we need is one early goal to pull Verdy out of their shell, and this game has a habit of giving one. We are on the busier game.

💬 Kyoto Sanga cannot keep the ball out of their own net, and that is the case for goals here. They let in more than 2 a game across their eight home matches, and 11 of their last 19 games have had 3 or more goals. Their own games average almost 3 goals in total. Mito Hollyhock are poor, but poor in a way that helps this bet. They have no win in nine away games, and they let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. They score under a goal a game away, though they have been creating more chances than their goal count shows. So both ends of the pitch look soft. Kyoto should score twice against a defense that has been handing out goals all season, and Mito's way back is one of those soft goals. A ragged, open 2-1 to Kyoto is the read, and that is enough for this pick. The risk is the level of the two teams. These are the sides sitting 15th and 16th, quality is low, and a scrappy 1-1 with nobody able to finish is a real outcome. There is no recent history to lean on either, as these clubs last met back in August 2021. We are still happy to back the busier game.

💬 The away side is the reason this one stays quiet. Shimizu S-pulse play in the lowest scoring games of anyone here, with just over 2 goals a game on average. Twelve of their last 18 have finished with 2 goals or fewer. They score under a goal a game and they sit deep on the road, where they let in just over a goal a trip. Cerezo Osaka will have the ball for long spells and they have lost only once in nine at home. The problem for them is turning that into goals against a packed defense. They were beaten 3-0 at Avispa Fukuoka last time out and created almost nothing in it. The two most recent meetings between these sides finished 1-1 and 0-0, which is exactly the kind of game this looks like. We expect Cerezo to win it 1-0, with the goal coming from a set piece or a single moment rather than a flowing move. Here is the honest worry. The longer history between them is busy, averaging just over 3 goals across the last 20 meetings. Twelve of Cerezo's last 18 games have also had 3 or more goals, and an early Cerezo goal could stretch this open. We still think Shimizu's low scoring style wins out and keeps the total down.

💬 Gamba Osaka are the form side here and they travel better than anyone Nagoya have faced lately. They have won five of their nine away games and they let in under a goal a game on the road. They have not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 17. Nagoya Grampus are in trouble. They have lost four of their last five and sit 18th on zero points. They still score, and Toyota Stadium has been kinder to them than their league position suggests, so this will not be one way traffic. Gamba are simply better in both boxes. Games between these clubs are usually open, averaging just over 3 goals across the last 20 meetings. Fourteen of Nagoya's last 18 games have had 3 or more goals. That points to a game that flows both ways rather than a shutout. We expect Nagoya to score and Gamba to win 2-1, which is enough for this pick. There are two things to watch. Nagoya have been solid at their own ground, with four wins from nine there and just over a goal let in per game. Gamba also announced injuries to defender Miura and midfielder Okunuki on 8 August, and there is no word on whether either is fit. We still want Gamba.

💬 Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won five games in a row, and this is a bad matchup for the visitors. At their own ground they have five wins from eight, and they let in under a goal a game there. They beat Urawa 4-1 last time out. Kawasaki Frontale are not the same side on the road. They have lost half of their ten away games and they score just 1 goal a game away from home. They need space to play, and Sanfrecce press high and take that space away. The recent history backs it up too. Sanfrecce have won both meetings this year, 2-1 at home in May and 1-0 at Kawasaki in June. We expect Hiroshima to get in front early and manage the rest, with a 2-0 win the most likely score. Two things could spoil it. The long history between these clubs belongs to Kawasaki, who lead the last 20 meetings 10-6, so this is a bigger ask than the current form suggests. Kawasaki have also been creating more chances than their goal count shows in their last two games, both of which they tied. We are still with Hiroshima to win this comfortably.

💬 Kobe keep turning road games into ties, and that suits the side we are backing. They have tied 4 of their 9 away games and score just over a goal a game on their travels. That is not a team that runs opponents over. Yokohama have won 7, tied 3 and lost 8 of their last 18. They score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal, so they stay in most games. Heavy defeats are rare too. Yokohama have lost by 2 or more in only 4 of those 18 games. Kobe have won 8, tied 6 and lost 4 in the same run, but they won by 2 or more in just 3 of 18. Both teams come in on 7 days rest, and the recent meetings have been controlled rather than wild. The last five produced 1, 3, 3, 3 and 2 goals. That points to a close game decided by one moment at each end. A 1-1 is the score we keep coming back to, and Yokohama coming out of this unbeaten is what we want. The warning is real, though. Kobe have won four of the last five meetings between these two. Yokohama have also won only two of their eight home games in this run, so the crowd may not count for much. We still make Yokohama hard enough to beat here.

💬 Everton start the season in poor shape, and that is the heart of this one. They have won just 3 of their last 13 games, and their last five brought three losses and two ties. They are also without Garner, Iroegbunam and Norgaard, the three central midfielders on their list. Everton let in almost 2 goals a game in that run and score more than a goal a game. Big wins are not their thing either. They have won by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 13. Palace have won 6, tied 4 and lost 6 of their last 16, so they arrive as the steadier team right now. Everton have not played a competitive game in 90 days. Palace last played 22 days ago, and that extra football should show early. A scrappy opener that neither side can control looks like ending level, and 1-1 is our read. Palace avoiding defeat is what we are backing. There is a clear warning here. Everton have won 11 of the last 20 meetings between them and have not lost any of the last five. Palace also travelled badly last season, taking one win from seven away games and letting in 2 goals a game on the road. Everton's problems still look bigger, so we will take Palace to leave with something.

💬 Sunderland barely score, and that is the simplest reason to want a quiet game. They score just over a goal a game and have won by 2 or more only once in their last 17. 10 of those 17 games finished with fewer than 3 goals. Ipswich are built the same way. They have won 7, tied 6 and lost only 1 of their last 14, and they let in less than a goal a game. At Portman Road they were unbeaten, with 4 wins and 3 ties, and they let in less than a goal a game there too. Six ties in 14 games tells you how these games tend to go. Opening day suits this as well. Ipswich have not played a competitive game in 112 days and Sunderland last played 20 days ago. Rust and caution should slow the first hour. Sunderland are without Adingra, and Ipswich have Matusiwa and Taylor in doubt. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and two goals keeps this comfortable. There are two things to watch. Ipswich's numbers all come from the Championship, so a step up in level could stretch a defense that has not faced this quality. Their games still averaged more than 2 goals across that run. We are happy to back the quiet game here.

💬 Sevilla have been poor on the road, and that is the main reason we are on Athletic. Sevilla won once in six away trips, scoring 1 goal a game and letting in more than 2. They have not won by 2 or more in any of their last 13 games. Kike Salas is suspended too, after his red card in the 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano. Athletic are not a side that wins big either. They won by 2 or more only once in their last 11 games. Their five home games averaged 1 goal scored and 1 let in. That suits us fine, because all this needs is Athletic getting over the line. The history says the same. The last 20 meetings averaged 2 goals in total, and Athletic come out of them with 9 wins, 3 ties and 8 losses. These games get decided by one moment at San Mames. A 1-0 to Athletic is the honest call here. The worry is rhythm. Athletic have not played a competitive game in 91 days and they start under a new coach. Sevilla played a week ago and have that in their legs. Athletic are also missing Dani Vivian and Unai Egiluz at the back, so the defence is patched up. Opening day rust is a real threat. We still think Athletic have enough to win this one.

💬 Auxerre arrive in bad shape, and that is why we want the quieter game. They could have up to 13 players unavailable. Striker Theo Bair is suspended and Assane Diousse is out for most of the season with a torn knee ligament. Auxerre have not played a competitive game in 97 days either. Lens are strong at home without being wild. They took 8 wins, 1 tie and 1 loss from their last ten home games. They scored more than 2 a game there and let in under a goal a game. They also won by 2 or more in only 7 of their last 16 games, so they win without running up big scores. The numbers on Auxerre point the same way. Their games came in at 3 goals or fewer in 8 of their last 13, and only one of those had 5 or more goals. The 19 meetings between these two have averaged under 3 goals in total. Expect Lens to keep the ball, take their time and add a second once Auxerre tire. A 2-0 to Lens is the likely finish, and that is a comfortable spot for us. The risk is Lens themselves. Their own games are busy, with 11 of their last 16 having 3 or more goals. An early goal could pull Auxerre out and open this up. We still expect a controlled home win with the goals staying low.

💬 These two produce goals against each other. The last seven meetings averaged just over 3 goals in total, and the two most recent finished 2-2 and 3-2. That is the strongest reason we want the busier game here. Inter score more than 2 goals a game and went unbeaten at home, winning five of their seven there. Their own games have averaged just over 3 goals in total. The goals in this one are most likely to come from their end. Monza have scored almost 2 goals a game across their last 16. That came in the division below, so it flatters them. They are also without captain Matteo Pessina and forward Dany Mota. Their way to a goal here is a set piece or an Inter mistake, not a spell of pressure. Be straight about the risk. The single most likely finish is a controlled 2-0 to Inter, and that on its own is not enough for us. We need a third goal in this game. Inter have not played a competitive game in 91 days, and rusty openers tend to get stretched late on. Only 7 of Inter's last 15 games had 3 or more goals, so they can shut a game down when they want. We still think this one has enough in it, and we are backing the goals.

💬 Udinese do not get beaten by much, and that is the backbone of this pick. They have not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 13 games. Across seven home games they let in less than a goal a game. Udinese are hard work to play against. They ground out a 1-0 win over Padova last time out. They do not score much themselves, under a goal a game at home, so their games stay tight and low. Como are the better team. They won 10 of their last 17 games and score almost 2 goals a game. On the road they took 5 wins, 2 ties and 2 losses from nine games. They win plenty, but they won by 2 or more in only 5 of their last 17. These two cancel each other out. The four meetings between them averaged under 2 goals in total. The last one at this ground finished 0-0 in April. A 1-1 is the honest call, and Udinese avoiding defeat is all this needs. The worry is the back line. Christian Kabasele is out after his red card last time out, and Chakvetadze and Zanoli are both doubtful. The defence that earned those numbers is being picked apart before kick off. Como have the quality to punish a patched up back four. We still want Udinese with the head start.

💬 Neither attack looks ready for this, and that is the case for the quieter game. Tottenham are missing van de Ven, Porro, Sarr, Simons, Odobert and Kulusevski. Kudus and Solanke are both late calls. Three defenders are in line for a debut, so this is a back line meeting for the first time. Brentford tie a lot of games. They tied 9 of their last 18, and five of their eight home games finished level. At home they scored more than a goal a game and let in about the same. They have won by 2 or more only once in their last 18. Tottenham have not won by 2 or more in any of their last 13 games. These meetings are usually a slog. Brentford did not score in three of the last five against Spurs, with a 0-0 and two 0-2 losses. The last 11 meetings have averaged under 3 goals in total. Both sides have had 90 days off, so touch and timing will be missing early. A 1-1 is the fair read, and that sits nicely for us. The doubt is that new Spurs back line. Three players making a debut together on day one can leak goals. Brentford have also been giving up more chances lately than their record of letting in goals suggests. We still expect a tight, low-scoring opener.

💬 Valencia open the season with their attack pulled apart. Six players are missing, and Diego Lopez and Sergi Canos are gone for the rest of the year with knee ligament injuries. Copete is out until October. Carlos Corberan has to patch together a new front line in his first competitive game for 91 days. That is a lot to ask on opening night. Valencia have won 7, tied 2 and lost 5 of their last 14 games, so they are no machine even at full strength. Celta travel light on goals. They scored just over a goal a game on the road last season, winning 3, tying 2 and losing 3 of eight away trips. What they do have is a hold over this game. Celta won the last two meetings, 3-2 at Mestalla in April and 4-1 in January. They have scored in each of the last five games between these clubs. Celta have had the same 91 days off, so nobody arrives game ready. A 1-1 is the read, and Celta avoiding defeat is all this pick needs. Be warned though. Valencia ended last season playing well, beating Barcelona 3-1 at home and winning 4-3 at Real Sociedad, and they won 4 of their 7 home games. This one is close, but we want Celta.

💬 Der Klassiker almost never stays quiet. The last 20 meetings between these two averaged just over 4 goals, and 80% of them ended with 3 goals or more. Dortmund will not sit deep and protect a point either. They score almost 2 goals a game, and 9 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. At home they have been better still, winning 5 of 7 and scoring just over 2 a game. Bayern are the bigger reason to expect goals. They score more than 3 goals a game, they have won 12 of their last 15, and 12 of those 15 games had 3 or more goals. They also let in more than a goal a game, so they never shut the door at their own end. Bayern are without Jamal Musiala, Serge Gnabry and Lennart Karl, but their scoring runs far deeper than three names. Dortmund arrive ready, 13 days on from a 3-2 win at Arsenal, and they will trade blows rather than sit back. A 2-3 to Bayern is the way this looks, and five goals clears the total with room to spare. The danger is a one off final that starts slowly. If the first hour stays cagey, one late goal will not save it. We still want the busy game.

💬 Napoli have never had an easy night at the Ferraris. Genoa have won 1, tied 7 and lost 12 of the last 20 meetings, and seven ties in twenty is the number that matters here. This time Napoli arrive without the men who give them control. Buongiorno is out at centre back, and Lobotka and Gilmour are both reported missing in midfield. Massimiliano Allegri also takes his first league game in charge, so the shape and the picks are new. Genoa are ready to go, six days on from a 4-1 win in the cup. Their games are quiet ones, averaging just over 2 goals, with 60% of them ending with 2 goals or fewer. They score just over a goal a game and let in about the same. Napoli defend well on the road, letting in less than a goal a game away from home, and they have won 8 of their last 15. All of that points to a tight, physical night decided by a set piece rather than open play. A 1-1 is the read, and Genoa staying level or close is exactly what this pick wants. The risk is obvious. Napoli have won 12 of those 20 meetings and are the better team. If Allegri takes control early Genoa can be picked off, but we like the head start.

💬 Neither of these sides can score. Parma score less than a goal a game. Cagliari score even less, and they have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 16 games. Parma have been the sturdier team at the Tardini, winning 4 of 8 there and letting in a goal a game. Their nights are quiet ones. Only 3 of Parma's last 15 games had 3 goals or more, and their games average 2 goals in total. Cagliari have taken one win from seven road trips and scored under a goal a game away. They are also without S. Esposito, R. Idrissi and Y. Trepy, so a blunt attack gets blunter. Parma are missing men of their own. B. Cremaschi is out with a knee injury, another midfielder has a muscle problem, and S. Britschgi is suspended. A patched up Parma midfield and a blunter Cagliari attack on opening night usually means a slow, careful game with very few clear chances. A 1-0 to Parma is the read, decided by one moment rather than an open trade. The history is the worry. The last 20 meetings averaged more than 2 goals, half of them had 3 goals or more, and Cagliari won 9 of them. This pairing has opened up before. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Brest barely score when they travel. They managed well under a goal a game on the road last season. They also lost three of their last five, including a 0-4 at Paris FC and a 0-1 at Paris Saint Germain. Nothing about that team says goals. Le Mans are built the same way. They did not lose a home game last season, winning 3 and tying 3, and they hardly let anything in there. They tied 6 of their last 13 games in all, and only 5 of those 13 had 3 or more goals. Brest are no busier. They won 4, tied 4 and lost 6 of their last 14. Games ending with 2 goals or fewer landed about 6 times in 10 for both of these sides. Add an opening day where neither club has played a competitive game in more than three months. Rusty teams take fewer chances and score fewer goals. Le Mans are without the suspended Voyer and Brest miss Chardonnet, so neither side is at full strength. A 1-0 to the home team is the read, and one goal is nowhere near enough to hurt this. The only worry is that all of Le Mans' numbers come from Ligue 2, so their defense is stepping up a level. We are backing the quiet game.

💬 Nice cannot score, and that is the heart of this pick. They won only 3 of their last 15 games and managed under a goal a game. At home they were worse still, one win in six. A side that shy in front of goal does not turn an opener into a shootout. Lorient will not blow the game open either. They tied 6 of their 14 games last season on the way to tenth, and they score more than a goal a game. Two careful teams tend to cancel each other out. The history says the same thing. Nice and Lorient have tied 8 of their last 20 meetings, and the most recent one finished 0-0. Six of every ten Nice games ended with 2 goals or fewer, and Lorient were just behind that. Olivier Pantaloni takes his first competitive game in charge of Nice, and new coaches almost always start careful. Both sides have players out or in doubt as well, so neither attack is at full strength. A 1-1 is the read, and two goals leaves this comfortable. The one warning is the home history. Nice scored 3 or more in each of the last two home meetings with Lorient. That is worth knowing, but the quiet game is still the strong call here.

💬 Lyon are caught between two big European nights. They tied 1-1 at Fenerbahce on 18 August, and they host the return leg four days after this game. A first weekend trip to Toulouse is not where they will empty the tank. Their travelling football says the same. Lyon won once and tied four times in seven away games, scoring under a goal a game on the road. Toulouse are rusty rather than poor. They have not played a competitive game since 17 May, which is 97 days off, so the opening half could be scrappy. They still won 5, tied 4 and lost 8 of their last 17, and they score just over a goal a game. Recent history helps too. Toulouse have beaten Lyon 2-1 in each of the last two meetings, so there is no fear here. Toulouse do lose D. Methalie and A. Vossah to suspension, which thins an already short squad. A 1-1 is the read, and Toulouse avoiding defeat is all this pick needs. The long record is the warning. Lyon have won 15 of the last 20 games between these clubs, and man for man they are still the stronger side. We are happy to back Toulouse to hold them.

💬 Fluminense do not beat anyone by much. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 18 games, and they tied 10 of them. That is the heart of the case for Remo. Fluminense also turn up short handed, missing eight players including J. Savarino, John Kennedy and Igor Rabello, with L. Acosta and Guga suspended. They played in Argentina on 18 August and have had four days to recover. This game is not at the Maracana either, so there is no home comfort to lean on. Away from their own ground Fluminense went eight games without a win, tying 6 of them and scoring under a goal a game. Remo are limited but hard to beat badly. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 20 games, and they score just over a goal a game. A 1-1 is the read, and Remo keeping it close is what this pick needs. There is real risk here. Fluminense sit 4th on 38 points to Remo's 18th on 23, and they won the only previous meeting 2-0. Remo have also gone their last 5 games without a win. A tired, patched up Fluminense side is not the team to punish that, so we will back Remo to stay in touch.

💬 Real Madrid own this game. They have won 17 of the last 20 meetings with Espanyol, who have taken only 3 wins in that run. Madrid score 2 goals a game and won 9 of their last 15. They won by 2 or more goals in 5 of those 15, so big wins are normal for them. Espanyol are no soft touch. They have been hard to score against on their own ground, letting in under a goal a game across 7 home games. They opened the season by beating Levante 3-0 and sit 2nd in the table. Their last 14 games read 3 wins, 5 ties and 6 losses, so the gap in class is still large. Madrid have problems to solve. Eder Militao, F. Mendy, R. Asencio and Rodrygo are all out, Endrick is a doubt, and this is their first competitive game in 91 days. These meetings tend to be busy, averaging just over 3 goals, and Espanyol should get on the scoresheet. A 1-2 to Madrid is the read. The caution is clear. A rusty Madrid side missing four players can be held to a narrow win at a ground where goals are scarce. We still expect the better team to take care of it.

💬 These two do not put on a show. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, and three of the last five ended 0-1, 0-0 and 0-2. Internacional have made the Beira-Rio a hard place to score. They won 5, tied 4 and lost 2 in 11 home games there, letting in under a goal a game. They score just over a goal a game themselves, so they are not built to run up a big score. Atletico-MG are cut from the same cloth. They let in a goal a game, score just over one, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. They are short handed as well, missing six players including Gustavo Scarpa. They have had only three days off after midweek football, and Internacional have had five. Tired legs and a thin bench point at a careful game. A 1-1 is the read, and that keeps the count low. Two things could break it. Internacional are without first choice goalkeeper S. Rochet and the suspended Matheus Bahia, so the back line that kept things quiet is not intact. Atletico are the better team right now, with 9 wins in their last 19 games, and an early goal would stretch this open. We still expect a tight, low scoring night.

💬 These two meet for the third time in ten days, and the last one finished 48 hours ago. Flamengo won that Libertadores leg 2-1 to go through 3-2 on aggregate. Both squads get two days to recover, so both managers will change their teams. Tired, rotated sides rarely trade goals. The history says the same thing. The last 20 meetings averaged 2 goals in total, and only 3 in 10 of them had 3 goals or more. A 1-1 and a 0-0 sit among the recent results. Cruzeiro are hard to score against. They let in less than a goal a game and have won 9, tied 6 and lost 3 of their last 18. Flamengo defend well too. They also let in less than a goal a game and have lost only 2 of their last 16. Both sides are missing key men. Flamengo have no Alex Sandro, Vitao, De la Cruz or Cebolinha. Cruzeiro are without Gabriel Pec and L. Sinisterra, and Jonathan Jesus is suspended. A 1-1 is the read, and that keeps the count down. The danger is Flamengo's front line. They score almost 2 goals a game, and 8 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. A strong Flamengo team could open this up. We still expect a quiet, tired night.