Tips — Monday, 24 August 2026

💬 Hamburg do not win by big margins, and that is the heart of this one. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 1 of their last 15 games. They have also not played a competitive game since 16 May, so 100 days of rust comes with them. Three of their defenders are out, including Muheim and Torunarigha, so the back line is patched up. Verl are hard to beat by much at their own ground. They have won 5 and lost 3 of their eight home games, and they have lost by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 16. They also have two league games behind them already, so they are up to speed and Hamburg are not. Cup ties like this get scrappy fast. The home crowd lifts the smaller side early, and the bigger club needs time to find its feet. We expect Hamburg's quality to tell after the break and a narrow win, something like 1-2. Verl staying within a goal is what this bet is built on. The clear warning is Verl's defending. They let in four goals in each of their two league games this season, 2-4 at home to Duisburg and 1-4 at Aachen. If that happens again, this is gone by the hour mark. We still expect a close and awkward night for Hamburg.

💬 Bologna have not been scoring at home, and that is the case for Lazio here. Bologna have scored only a goal a game across their last seven home games and won just 1 of them. This is also their first game of the season, 93 days since they last played a competitive match. Opening night against a team with a game already behind them is awkward. Lazio are at their best on the road. They let in under a goal a game across six away games, winning three of them and losing two. The history helps as well. Lazio have won 9 of the last 20 meetings between these two, with Bologna winning 5 and six ending level. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, and that is a good night for us. Neither side scores freely, and a rusty home team against a road side that defends deep points to a cagey, low scoring opener. The worry is real. Lazio's back four is patched together with Romagnoli, Gigot, Patric and Nuno Tavares all out, and they lost 0-2 at home to Mantova on 16 August. If that defence creaks early, Bologna will not need much to win this. Even so, we are happy to be with Lazio to avoid defeat.

💬 Malmo are missing six players for this one. Ekong, Jansson, John, Kamanzi and Sjostrand are all hurt, and Stryger is suspended. Djurgarden are without only M. Larsson. That gap in bodies is the main reason we are on the away side. Malmo have won only three of their eight home games this season and let in 2 goals a game at Eleda Stadion. Their last two home league games both finished 1-2, against Degerfors and Elfsborg. They score almost 2 goals a game overall, so the problem is at the back, not in front of goal. Djurgarden score 2 goals a game and let in just over one. On the road they have been hard to break down, giving up a goal a game across eight away trips. They are the better balanced team and they defend the middle of the pitch well. Both teams have had 8 days off, so nobody comes in tired. Expect Malmo to press early and Djurgarden to take control once the game calms down. A 1-2 away win is the most likely score, and that patched up home back line is where it goes wrong. The honest warning is the history. Four of the last five meetings finished 1-0, 0-1, 1-0 or 1-1, so these games are usually tight. Malmo's home season also holds a 4-0 win over IFK Goteborg. Djurgarden are still the side we want.

💬 Two low-scoring teams meet in what looks like a slow, physical game in Pamplona. That is the whole case for a quiet night here. Osasuna score just over a goal a game and have not won by 2 or more in any of their last 15. They have not played a competitive game in 93 days, and rust usually means fewer clean chances, not more. They lost their last five games before the summer, but nearly all of those went down by a single goal against strong teams. Levante arrive after a 0-3 loss at Espanyol in which they barely created a thing. Their travelling record is poor, with one win in seven away games and under a goal scored per trip. A low block looks like the plan again. The history backs it up. The last 16 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals in total, and fewer than a third of them had 3 or more goals. Levante's own games have finished with 2 goals or fewer just over half the time. Expect Osasuna to work an opening once rather than twice, and 1-0 is the most likely score. A night like that lands this bet comfortably. The risk is fresh squads. Osasuna have added three new signings and Levante seven, so neither team need look like last season's version. A rusty opener can still break open late if one side has to chase. We are on the quiet game.

💬 Fiorentina do not get beaten up. They have lost by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 13 games. They finish within a goal of their opponent in about five of every six. That is the whole reason we are on them. Roma are the better team here and their home numbers say so. They score more than 2 goals a game at the Olimpico and let in only one. They also closed last season with five straight wins. The catch is the size of those wins. Roma have won by 2 or more in only 6 of their last 15 games. Fiorentina lost just 2 of their last 13 and tied 5 of them. They score just over a goal a game, so they will not run Roma over, but they are hard to break down. They also have a game in the legs, beating Benevento 4-1 in the cup ten days ago. Roma have not played a competitive game in 92 days. The likely score is a 2-1 Roma win. That does not quite get this home on its own. For a clean win we need Fiorentina to tie it or take the game, and their record says they stay close often enough. The warning is May, when Roma beat this same team 4-0 in Rome. Roma also lead the last 20 meetings 11 wins to 5. We are still with the away side staying close.

💬 Everything about this game points to a low-scoring night. Neither team has played since May, both have a new manager taking charge for the first time, and opening day usually brings caution rather than chaos. Fulham are the quiet half of this. They score a goal a game and let in under a goal at Craven Cottage. Only 5 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Joachim Andersen is suspended, which hurts, but the shape and the set pieces are what they lean on anyway. Chelsea come in short too. Wesley Fofana is suspended and Jordan Henderson is still not fit. Chelsea took one point from their last five away games and scored under a goal a trip. They won 3, tied 1 and lost 10 across their last 14 games, so this is not a team full of belief. The head to head says the same thing. The last 20 meetings have averaged 2 goals in total, and only about a third of them had 3 or more. A game short of clean chances suits Fulham, and 1-0 to the home side is the most likely score. That is well inside what we need. The one worry is Chelsea's own recent games. 9 of their last 14 had 3 or more goals, and they let in plenty on the road. If this opens up early, it can get away from us fast. We are still backing the tight game.

💬 Gil Vicente's games tend to have goals in them. 12 of their last 16 had 3 or more, and their games average almost 3 goals in total. That is the starting point here. Gil Vicente are also fresh. Their Braga game was called off, so they come in with 15 days rest, and they have won five of their nine home games. They score more than a goal a game and should own the ball and the territory for long spells. Casa Pia are in a bad way. They sit bottom of the table with no points, no goals in two games and eight let in, including a 0-7 at home to Benfica. They barely score away from home. Domingos Bandeira was sent off against Benfica and Khaly is suspended, so the back line is patched up again. A side that creates almost nothing and gets opened up easily is a good match for a home team that keeps scoring. The likely score is 2-0 to Gil Vicente. That does not quite get this home on its own, so we need a third goal from either side. The warning is the history between them. Their nine meetings have averaged under 2 goals, with 0-0, 1-1 and 1-1 among the recent ones. Casa Pia have tied six of their last seventeen games and stay within a goal of the opponent about 7 times in 10. We still want the busier game.

💬 Deportivo are the steadier team here, and that is why we want them. They have lost just once in their last 13 games, and they have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of them. On the road they are unbeaten in five, letting in well under a goal a game. Malaga are not in poor shape either. They have won 7 of their last 15 and score almost 2 goals a game. The problem is who is missing. Calero, Juanpe, Murillo, Nino and Ochoa are all ruled out, so that is five first team players gone from one squad. At La Rosaleda they have been quiet: just over a goal a game scored and a goal a game let in across six home games. These two also know each other well. The last four meetings finished 1-1, 3-0, 1-1 and 0-0, and only one of those was a comfortable win for anyone. A 1-1 tie looks the likely result again, and Deportivo avoiding defeat is what this bet is built on. The honest warning is the level. Both clubs came up from the second tier in June, so these numbers were built against weaker teams. Deportivo are short of bodies too, with Carrillo out and Mella and Villares doubtful. We still side with Deportivo to take something from this.

💬 Goals are hard to find whenever Atletico Paranaense play, and that shapes this one. They let in under a goal a game, and their games have averaged under 2 goals in total across 18 games. Only 5 of those 18 had 3 or more goals in them. On the road they score under a goal a game, so they do not force the play. Botafogo are tight at their own ground too. They have won 5 of their 8 home games and let in under a goal a game there. The bigger issue is tired legs. This is their third game in nine days, and Arthur Cabral is suspended after a red card, with Kaio Pantaleao and Paulinho also out. Atletico Paranaense have had nine days off, so they can sit deep and take their time. The head to head says the same thing. The last 20 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals, and only 3 in 10 of them had 3 or more goals. A 1-1 tie is the likely finish, and that keeps this game quiet. The risk is a collapse. Botafogo were beaten 1-6 at Cienciano on 14 August, and 9 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals in them. Atletico Paranaense also won the last meeting 4-1 back in March. We still expect a slow, careful night with few clear chances.