Torino vs AC Milan — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Milan turn up for their first game of the season without a proper front line. Rafael Leao has not recovered from a muscle problem. Christian Pulisic is expected to miss out after more than six weeks on the sidelines. Santiago Gimenez has been left out over a move to Porto, and Nkunku, Fofana and Tomori are out as well. Milan were a quiet team even before all that. They score just over a goal a game, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. 9 of their last 16 games had 2 goals or fewer. They have not played a competitive game in 91 days, which rarely makes for a smooth attacking display. Torino are the fresher side with 8 days since a cup game, and they are awkward to play at home. They have won 6, tied 4 and lost 6 of their last 16, and they let in just over a goal a game at home. This has the shape of a cagey opener that Torino edge through one set piece or one break. A 1-0 is the most likely finish, and that is well clear of what we need. The warning is that Torino games are rarely quiet. 11 of their last 16 had 3 or more goals, and the last two meetings with Milan both finished 3-2. If Pulisic and Leao make the squad after all, Milan look a different team. We still want the low scoring game here.