RB Bragantino vs Gremio — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Bragantino's home games have been almost silent. Their last four at home finished 0-1, 0-2, 1-0 and 0-0. That is one goal scored in four games. At home they score a goal a game and let in less than one. Only 6 of their last 18 games have had 3 or more goals. This is a side that keeps things tight. Gremio arrive in poor shape. They sit 15th and were beaten 3-0 at Atletico-MG last time out. Both of their senior centre-backs are missing, with Walter Kannemann suspended and Fabian Balbuena out. A patched back line usually means a visiting team sits deeper, not braver. So this should be a grind. Expect a scrappy first hour and a goal from a set piece or a scramble. Bragantino have had 4 days since their last game to Gremio's 7, which is another reason to expect a careful start. Our read is a 1-0 home win, and that is exactly the quiet night we want. The catch is Gremio. Their own games have been busier, at almost 3 goals a game, and 9 of their last 16 had 3 or more. If they have to chase a goal late, this can open up. Even so, we are happy to take the low scoring side of it.