Coritiba vs Corinthians — Tips & Analysis

Coritiba +0.25: Corinthians are running on empty, and that is why we want the home side. This is their third game in eight days. They arrive in Curitiba two days after a Libertadores win over Rosario Central, and Coritiba have had a full week off. Corinthians are also missing the two men who supply most of their goals. Yuri Alberto is out with a muscle problem and Rodrigo Garro is suspended. Andre, Vitinho and Kayke are out too. Corinthians have won 8 of their last 18 games and let in a goal a game. They have been hard to score against lately, so this was never going to be a shootout. Coritiba are hardly flying either. They have won 6 and tied 7 of their last 20, they score just over a goal a game, and they have not made many chances lately. What they do is keep games tight. Their games average just over 2 goals in total. Two cautious sides, one of them dead on their feet, points to a low scoring night. A 1-1 is our read, and that is enough for this pick. The worry is history. Coritiba have won only 2 of the last 20 meetings with Corinthians and lost 12 of them. They have also lost by 2 or more in 5 of their last 20 games. We still want Coritiba with a head start against a team playing their third game in eight days.