Vitoria vs Bahia — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.25: Goals have followed both of these sides all season. 11 of Bahia's last 18 games had 3 or more goals, and 10 of Vitoria's last 20 did too. That is the base for backing goals in this derby. Vitoria have been strong at the Barradao. They have won 9 of their 10 home games and score more than 2 goals a game there. Their games overall average 3 goals between the two teams. Bahia are the harder side to break down. They have tied their last five games and 8 of their 18 overall. They score just over a goal a game and let in about the same. Even so, their games still average almost 3 goals. The extra push comes from the Vitoria team sheet. Six players are out, including Camutanga, Anderson, Dudu and Edu. A patched side that attacks the way Vitoria do at home tends to leave space at the back. Now the honest part. The single most likely score is 1-1, and that does not get us there. We need a third goal, and in a loud derby with a weakened home defense that is a fair ask. The history says be careful. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals with eight ties. Bahia are happy to sit in and take a point. We still want the busier game here.