Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal — Tips & Analysis

Villarreal +0.75: This game keeps ending level. Nine of the last 20 meetings were ties, and Atletico lead the series by only 6 wins to 5. A head start for Villarreal matters in a game with that history. Atletico are not the force their name suggests right now. They won 6 of their last 16 games and lost 8. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than one. Most telling of all, they have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 16. They are short up front as well. Sorloth is injured, Hjulmand and Romero are out, and Julian Alvarez has only just come back to training. Villarreal are hard to beat on the road. They lost just 3 of their nine away games last season, with four of those trips ending level. Across all games they score almost 2 goals a game. They have lost only 4 of their last 16. A 1-1 is our read here, and that is a fine result for this pick. Now the honest part. Villarreal were second best in their opening 2-2 at promoted Racing Santander, so they are not in top gear yet. Atletico barely let Malaga near their goal in a 2-0 win, and one early goal would change the shape of this completely. We still want Villarreal with the start.